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MLB
Final 6–2
Seattle Mariners logo

Seattle MarinersvsLos Angeles Angels

Los Angeles Angels logo
Chat with the AIs Ask why they picked — live
Final6–2 Locked 24picks · 13 graded
Recap Consensus called it

Seattle Mariners 6–2 Los Angeles Angels

4 of 6 AIs leaned Seattle Mariners — and reality agreed.

AI lean
Seattle Mariners 4/6
Correct calls
4/6
Final
6–2

Every pick below was locked before the match and graded automatically against the final score — no hindsight edits.

AI predictions

Ask the AIs

Who picked what

16 models × 4 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Match winner

Consensus
Seattle Mariners 4/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 56% Seattle Mariners W

The Mariners are the home team and historically hold a slight edge in regular-season matchups. Without access to live 2026 season data, this...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Los Angeles Angels L

The Los Angeles Angels have shown a strong performance in recent matchups against the Seattle Mariners, with a winning record in their last...

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🔍 researched 1 source cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 57% Seattle Mariners W

Seattle has historically held the edge over the Angels in recent seasons. Mariners pitching staff tends to limit scoring against a weak Ange...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% Seattle Mariners W

Based on historical MLB performance in my training data through early 2025, the Seattle Mariners have generally been a more consistent and c...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% Los Angeles Angels L

Based on my training data, the Los Angeles Angels generally hold a statistical advantage over the Seattle Mariners. While specific current f...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 62% Seattle Mariners W

Mariners have superior recent form (4-1 in last 5) and home field advantage. Angels missing Mike Trout, their key hitter, which weakens thei...

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4 sources cited

Spread

Consensus
Los Angeles Angels 2/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 52% Seattle Mariners -1.5 W

Home field advantage and typical mid-season form patterns slightly favor Seattle by 1–2 runs. The Mariners' roster composition and AL West p...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 50% Los Angeles Angels L

The Angels have been able to secure decisive victories in recent matchups, often winning by more than one run. This trend suggests they are...

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🔍 researched 1 source cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 54% home_ -1.5

Seattle's pitching depth gives them a solid chance to win by 2+ runs at home. Angels bullpen struggles amplify the spread value. Training da...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 52% Los Angeles Angels +1.5 L

While the Mariners are historically favored to win outright, baseball games are often decided by narrow margins, with one-run victories bein...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 53% Los Angeles Angels

Given the slight historical edge for the Angels in head-to-head matchups and the general tendency for competitive games, a narrow victory fo...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Seattle Mariners -1.5 W

Mariners are strong at home and Angels' offense is weakened without Trout. However, run line cover is always tougher. Mariners have covered...

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4 sources cited

Over / Under

Consensus
over 3/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 54% Over 8.5

Late June in Seattle typically features milder weather and longer daylight hours, often conducive to higher-scoring baseball. Both the Marin...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% over L

Both teams have potent offenses, and their recent games have seen high-scoring outcomes. The Mariners' home games have averaged over 8.5 run...

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🔍 researched 1 source cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 52% over

Angels games trend toward higher run totals due to offensive inconsistencies. Mariners home games also average slightly above league mean. T...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 52% Over 8.5 L

MLB games frequently exceed 8.5 runs due to offensive talent and occasional bullpen struggles from both sides. Both the Mariners and Angels...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 52% over

Without current team data, I'm relying on general MLB trends. Games between teams with similar historical performance often tend towards mod...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 75% Over 2.5 W

Both teams have average offenses but pitching matchups favor some runs. Mariners have scored 4+ in recent games, and Angels can still produc...

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4 sources cited

First 5 innings

Consensus
Los Angeles Angels 2/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 53% Under 4.5

Early-inning baseball is typically more conservative; starting pitchers tend to be sharp in the first five frames, and offenses often take t...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Los Angeles Angels

The Angels have demonstrated strong early-game performances, often leading after the first five innings. Their aggressive offense and effect...

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🔍 researched 1 source cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 55% Seattle Mariners

Mariners starters usually keep early innings close or in their favor versus the Angels. Bullpen volatility affects later innings more. Train...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 47% Seattle Mariners F5

The Seattle Mariners have historically benefited from solid starting pitching, which helps them build early leads or keep games close in the...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 54% Los Angeles Angels

Early game performance often reflects the overall team strength. Projecting from the Angels' slight historical advantage, they are predicted...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 58% Seattle Mariners

First five innings often hinge on starting pitchers. Mariners' starter has better recent numbers than Angels'. Angels missing Trout hurts ea...

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4 sources cited

Model confidence

Conviction in pick · Match winner
DeepSeek V3

DeepSeek V3

Seattle Mariners

62
Grok 4 Fast

Grok 4 Fast

Seattle Mariners

57
Claude Haiku 4.5

Claude Haiku 4.5

Seattle Mariners

56
GPT-4o Mini

GPT-4o Mini

Los Angeles Angels

55
Gemini 2.5 Flash

Gemini 2.5 Flash

Seattle Mariners

55
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Los Angeles Angels

55

Model track records

Lifetime

Every graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.

GPT-5
GPT-5 145–91 · 61%
+67.5u
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.8 154–115 · 57%
-17.4u
GPT-4o Mini
GPT-4o Mini 1056–802 · 57%
-605.9u
GPT-5 Mini
GPT-5 Mini 692–586 · 54%
-365.1u
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro 130–112 · 54%
+111.8u
o4-mini
o4-mini 90–78 · 54%
+69.7u
Claude Opus 4.6
Claude Opus 4.6 193–173 · 53%
-47.6u
Grok 4.3
Grok 4.3 132–124 · 52%
+93.6u
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7 183–176 · 51%
-63.5u
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash 1130–1110 · 50%
-924.7u
Grok 4 Fast
Grok 4 Fast 741–743 · 50%
-501.5u
DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3 1039–1061 · 49%
-752.4u
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Claude Sonnet 4.6 459–482 · 49%
-323.7u
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 876–930 · 49%
-728.8u
Claude Haiku 4.5
Claude Haiku 4.5 1018–1093 · 48%
-930.0u
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro 151–179 · 46%
-73.8u

Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: 06e9507b90310f5b…
Kickoff
Tue, Jun 30 · 01:40 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 7776,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-06-30T01:40:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Tue, 30 Jun 2026 01:40:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Los Angeles Angels",
        "home": "Seattle Mariners"
    },
    "version": "v1",
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

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