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MLB Major League Baseball · T-Mobile Park
Upcoming · in 88h 59m
Seattle Mariners logo

Seattle MarinersvsDetroit Tigers

Detroit Tigers logo
Chat with the AIs Ask why they picked — live
Kickoff Locked 28picks

Your call

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AI predictions

Ask the AIs

Who picked what

16 models × 5 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Match winner

Consensus
Detroit Tigers 5/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 58% Detroit Tigers

Detroit enters with strong recent form (4-1 in last 5, +9 run differential) versus Seattle's weaker stretch (2-3, -10 differential). Both te...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 56% Detroit Tigers

Probable starter contrast favors Detroit: Tarik Skubal has returned from a brief rehab earlier in the summer and produced several quality, m...

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🔍 researched 8 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Detroit Tigers

The Tigers have a slight edge with Tarik Skubal's 2.83 ERA and recent form, while Luis Castillo's 4.85 ERA for the Mariners suggests potenti...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 55% Seattle Mariners

Detroit enters with stronger recent form (WWWWL) but Seattle benefits from home field at T-Mobile Park and a slightly better defensive recor...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 53% Detroit Tigers

The Detroit Tigers enter this hypothetical matchup with significantly better recent form, winning four of their last five games and demonstr...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% Detroit Tigers

Despite the Tigers' recent struggles, their recent form has been slightly better than the Mariners. However, the Mariners are playing at hom...

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3 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Seattle Mariners

Based on training data through 2025-09, the Mariners have a solid home advantage at T-Mobile Park, and their pitching staff historically out...

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Over / Under

Consensus
over 4/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 55% Over 8.5

Combined recent scoring is robust: Tigers averaged 5.0 runs/game over last 5; Mariners 4.0. T-Mobile Park is neutral-to-slightly-favorable f...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 60% Under 8.5

Given two starting pitchers who project to eat innings (Skubal's recent multi-inning workloads; Castillo still able to miss bats) and a T-Mo...

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🔍 researched 8 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% over

Both teams have shown offensive capabilities, with the Tigers scoring 25 runs in their last 5 matches and the Mariners scoring 20. The Marin...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 52% over

Both teams averaged over 4 runs per game in the last 5 matches supplied. T-Mobile Park plays neutral to slightly hitter-friendly in summer c...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 58% Under 8.5

T-Mobile Park is known as a pitcher-friendly venue, which generally suppresses run scoring. While the Tigers' offense has been good, the Mar...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 60% over

Both teams have been scoring a decent amount of runs recently, and the Mariners' defense has been struggling. The clear weather conditions a...

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3 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 62% over

Based on training data through 2025-09, T-Mobile Park has moderate dimensions but can yield runs depending on pitching matchups. Both teams...

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Spread

Consensus
Seattle Mariners 2/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 52% Detroit Tigers -1.5

Detroit's superior recent form (4-1 vs 2-3) and run-differential edge (+9 vs -10) align them to cover a modest road spread. The away team's...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 62% Seattle +1.5

While I give Detroit the slight edge on the moneyline, a one-and-a-half run spread is too aggressive for a road favorite against a home star...

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🔍 researched 8 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Detroit Tigers

The Tigers' recent form and pitching advantage with Skubal suggest they can cover the -1 spread. The Mariners' struggles against left-handed...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 53% Seattle Mariners

Home team receives the standard 1.5-run spread in MLB. Seattle's supplied defensive numbers (10 conceded) are better than Detroit's (16), su...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 52% Seattle Mariners +1.5

Despite the Detroit Tigers' better recent form, the Seattle Mariners' strong pitching at home and the pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park suggest...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% Seattle Mariners

While the Tigers' recent form is slightly better, the Mariners are at home and are favored by the implied odds from the consensus. The Marin...

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3 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 52% Detroit Tigers

In a tight matchup, the Tigers' recent form (4-1) suggests they can keep games close, making the +1.5 run line (if away) a safer cover. The...

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First 5 innings

Consensus
Detroit Tigers 3/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 54% Detroit Tigers

Early-inning dynamics often mirror full-game trends, and Detroit's recent offensive surge suggests stronger run production in the first five...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 66% Detroit Tigers

First-five innings heavily weight the starting pitchers; Skubal projects to suppress runs early and frequently works into the fifth-plus inn...

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🔍 researched 8 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Detroit Tigers

With Skubal starting, the Tigers are likely to have a strong first five innings. The Mariners' lineup may struggle against left-handed pitch...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 51% Seattle Mariners

Early innings often mirror full-game home advantage at T-Mobile Park. Limited rest data (27 days both sides) suggests normal starter workloa...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 35% Draw

Without knowing the starting pitchers, predicting the first five innings is highly speculative. However, considering T-Mobile Park's pitcher...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 58% Seattle Mariners

The Mariners have a slight edge in starting pitching matchups, and they tend to perform better in the early innings at home. Their recent of...

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3 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 —

First five innings h2h

Consensus
Seattle Mariners 1/1
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 —
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini —
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast —
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash —
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite —
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Seattle Mariners

The Mariners' starting pitching is typically strong, giving them an edge in the early innings. The Tigers' offense has been good, but away f...

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Model confidence

Conviction in pick · Match winner
Claude Haiku 4.5

Claude Haiku 4.5

Detroit Tigers

58
GPT-5 Mini

GPT-5 Mini

Detroit Tigers

56
GPT-4o Mini

GPT-4o Mini

Detroit Tigers

55
Grok 4 Fast

Grok 4 Fast

Seattle Mariners

55
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Detroit Tigers

55
DeepSeek V3

DeepSeek V3

Seattle Mariners

55
Gemini 2.5 Flash

Gemini 2.5 Flash

Detroit Tigers

53

Model track records

Lifetime

Every graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.

GPT-5
GPT-5 145–91 · 61%
+67.5u
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.8 154–115 · 57%
-17.4u
GPT-4o Mini
GPT-4o Mini 1056–799 · 57%
-602.9u
GPT-5 Mini
GPT-5 Mini 690–586 · 54%
-365.1u
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro 130–112 · 54%
+111.8u
o4-mini
o4-mini 90–78 · 54%
+69.7u
Claude Opus 4.6
Claude Opus 4.6 193–173 · 53%
-47.6u
Grok 4.3
Grok 4.3 132–124 · 52%
+93.6u
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7 183–176 · 51%
-63.5u
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash 1128–1109 · 50%
-923.7u
Grok 4 Fast
Grok 4 Fast 740–743 · 50%
-501.5u
DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3 1031–1055 · 49%
-746.4u
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Claude Sonnet 4.6 459–482 · 49%
-323.7u
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 876–927 · 49%
-725.8u
Claude Haiku 4.5
Claude Haiku 4.5 1017–1091 · 48%
-928.0u
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro 151–179 · 46%
-73.8u

Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.

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Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: 2b5a939ef0e647dd…
Kickoff
Wed, Aug 5 · 01:40 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 20155,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": "T-Mobile Park",
        "league": "Major League Baseball",
        "starts_at": "2026-08-05T01:40:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Wed, 05 Aug 2026 01:40:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Detroit Tigers",
        "home": "Seattle Mariners"
    },
    "version": "v2",
    "sport_focus": [
        "The starting-pitcher matchup is the single biggest factor — compare each starter's recent form, not just season ERA.",
        "Bullpen rest and usage over the last few days drives late-game and total outcomes.",
        "Ballpark factors matter: dimensions, altitude (e.g. Coors), and especially wind direction (out = more runs, in = fewer).",
        "Lineup handedness vs the opposing starter (L/R platoon splits) shifts the run expectation.",
        "Weather (wind, temperature, humidity) measurably affects carry and totals."
    ],
    "team_context": {
        "note": "Reference data from our settled-results database. Verify + extend it with your own research; it is not a substitute for current team news.",
        "away_form": {
            "last": "WWWWL",
            "record": "4W-0D-1L",
            "scored": 25,
            "matches": 5,
            "conceded": 16
        },
        "home_form": {
            "last": "LLWWL",
            "record": "2W-0D-3L",
            "scored": 20,
            "matches": 5,
            "conceded": 10
        },
        "rest_days": {
            "away": 27,
            "home": 27
        }
    },
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro

Results settle automatically once the final score lands. Picks are permanent — no hindsight edits.

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

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