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MLB Major League Baseball · T-Mobile Park
Upcoming · in 89h 27m
Seattle Mariners logo

Seattle MarinersvsCincinnati Reds

Cincinnati Reds logo
Chat with the AIs Ask why they picked — live
Kickoff Locked 28picks

Your call

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AI predictions

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Who picked what

16 models × 4 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Match winner

Consensus
Seattle Mariners 7/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 58% Seattle Mariners

Both teams enter with identical 2-3 records over their last 5 matches and equivalent rest (12 days). Seattle plays at home in T-Mobile Park,...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 62% Seattle Mariners

Seattle holds the edge: Logan Gilbert has been in clear form over his recent stretch (low ERA, strong K rate and multiple 6+ inning outings)...

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🔍 researched 7 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 75% Seattle Mariners

The Seattle Mariners have a strong home record of 27-20, while the Cincinnati Reds have a weaker away record of 21-24. Additionally, the Mar...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 57% Seattle Mariners

Seattle has a stronger home record and better pitching staff depth than Cincinnati based on historical patterns through 2025. T-Mobile Park...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 58% Seattle Mariners

The Seattle Mariners, playing at home in a pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park, have shown stronger defensive form recently, conceding significan...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% Seattle Mariners

The Seattle Mariners have a stronger home record and a more favorable recent home-field performance compared to the Cincinnati Reds' away st...

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4 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Seattle Mariners

Home advantage at T-Mobile Park supports Seattle, but both teams have similar form and rest. The game likely hinges on starting pitching, wh...

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Over / Under

Consensus
over 2/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 62% Under 8.5

T-Mobile Park is one of the more pitcher-favorable ballparks in MLB, with larger outfield dimensions and a cool Pacific Northwest climate th...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 66% under_8.5

Park and pitchers push the projection low: Statcast park factors mark T‑Mobile Park as run‑suppressing in 2026, and Gilbert's ability to eat...

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🔍 researched 7 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 65% over

Both teams have relatively low batting averages (.230), but the Mariners have a higher on-base percentage (.310) compared to the Reds' .310....

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 54% under

T-Mobile Park is a strong pitchers park with dimensions that limit home runs. Both starters project to be solid and bullpens are rested afte...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% Under 8.0

T-Mobile Park's characteristics as a pitcher-friendly venue, combined with the Seattle Mariners' strong recent defensive record (conceding o...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 53% over

Both teams have shown decent offensive output recently, and the T-Mobile Park is known for being hitter-friendly. While the Mariners' pitchi...

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4 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 52% Under 7.5

Pitcher-friendly ballpark and likely strong starters (based on training data) suggest a low-scoring game. Both bullpens have had ample rest,...

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Spread

Consensus
Seattle Mariners -1.5 3/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 52% Seattle Mariners -1.5

The Mariners' slight run-differential advantage and home-field benefit narrow the spread probability tightly, approaching a coin flip. A -1....

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 57% home_ -1.5

Given Gilbert's propensity to work deep and the park's run suppression, Seattle has a reasonable chance to win by multiple runs; Abbott's in...

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🔍 researched 7 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 70% Seattle Mariners

Given the Mariners' superior home record and overall performance, they are likely to cover a -1 spread against the Reds. The Mariners' home...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 53% Seattle Mariners

Mariners are the better overall club and receive home-field advantage in a park that boosts their run prevention. Cincinnati's recent form s...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 53% Seattle Mariners -1.5

Building on the H2H prediction, the Mariners at home with a stronger defensive recent form are favored to win. A -1.5 run line requires them...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 52% Cincinnati Reds

While Seattle is favored on the moneyline, the Cincinnati Reds have a slightly better chance of covering a +1.5 run spread. This is based on...

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4 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 40% Seattle Mariners -1.5

While Seattle has a slight edge to win outright, a multi-run victory is less likely in a low-scoring game. The Reds have competitive form an...

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First 5 innings

Consensus
Seattle Mariners 5/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 60% Under 4.5

Early-game innings (1–5) typically feature lower run totals than full-game due to smaller sample size and standard relief patterns not yet e...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 58% Seattle Mariners

Early game advantage to Seattle: Gilbert's first‑5 performance is strong (quality first 5/6 innings in recent starts) while Abbott has shown...

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🔍 researched 7 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% Seattle Mariners

While specific starting pitchers are not listed, the Mariners' overall home performance and the Reds' away struggles suggest the Mariners ar...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 56% Seattle Mariners

Early innings favor the home starter in pitcher-friendly parks and Mariners lineup has shown better platoon splits historically. Reds strugg...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 57% Seattle Mariners

The first five innings heavily rely on the starting pitchers. Given the Mariners' stronger recent defensive performance and the pitcher-frie...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 54% over

The early innings often see pitchers still settling in, and with potentially high-scoring offenses, the first five innings are likely to see...

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4 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 53% Seattle Mariners

First five innings heavily depend on starting pitchers, which are unknown beyond training data. Home advantage and slight rest benefit for S...

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Model confidence

Conviction in pick · Match winner
GPT-4o Mini

GPT-4o Mini

Seattle Mariners

75
GPT-5 Mini

GPT-5 Mini

Seattle Mariners

62
Claude Haiku 4.5

Claude Haiku 4.5

Seattle Mariners

58
Gemini 2.5 Flash

Gemini 2.5 Flash

Seattle Mariners

58
Grok 4 Fast

Grok 4 Fast

Seattle Mariners

57
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Seattle Mariners

55
DeepSeek V3

DeepSeek V3

Seattle Mariners

55

Model track records

Lifetime

Every graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.

GPT-5
GPT-5 145–91 · 61%
+67.5u
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.8 154–115 · 57%
-17.4u
GPT-4o Mini
GPT-4o Mini 1043–787 · 57%
-590.9u
GPT-5 Mini
GPT-5 Mini 678–576 · 54%
-356.7u
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro 130–112 · 54%
+111.8u
o4-mini
o4-mini 90–78 · 54%
+69.7u
Claude Opus 4.6
Claude Opus 4.6 193–173 · 53%
-47.6u
Grok 4.3
Grok 4.3 132–124 · 52%
+93.6u
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7 183–176 · 51%
-63.5u
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash 1116–1095 · 50%
-909.7u
Grok 4 Fast
Grok 4 Fast 735–738 · 50%
-496.5u
DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3 1017–1031 · 50%
-722.4u
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Claude Sonnet 4.6 459–482 · 49%
-323.7u
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 864–915 · 49%
-713.8u
Claude Haiku 4.5
Claude Haiku 4.5 1004–1080 · 48%
-917.0u
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro 151–179 · 46%
-73.8u

Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.

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Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: 10942c71b32e6a4a…
Kickoff
Tue, Jul 21 · 01:40 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 13756,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": "T-Mobile Park",
        "league": "Major League Baseball",
        "starts_at": "2026-07-21T01:40:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Tue, 21 Jul 2026 01:40:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Cincinnati Reds",
        "home": "Seattle Mariners"
    },
    "version": "v2",
    "sport_focus": [
        "The starting-pitcher matchup is the single biggest factor — compare each starter's recent form, not just season ERA.",
        "Bullpen rest and usage over the last few days drives late-game and total outcomes.",
        "Ballpark factors matter: dimensions, altitude (e.g. Coors), and especially wind direction (out = more runs, in = fewer).",
        "Lineup handedness vs the opposing starter (L/R platoon splits) shifts the run expectation.",
        "Weather (wind, temperature, humidity) measurably affects carry and totals."
    ],
    "team_context": {
        "note": "Reference data from our settled-results database. Verify + extend it with your own research; it is not a substitute for current team news.",
        "away_form": {
            "last": "WLWLL",
            "record": "2W-0D-3L",
            "scored": 20,
            "matches": 5,
            "conceded": 22
        },
        "home_form": {
            "last": "LLWWL",
            "record": "2W-0D-3L",
            "scored": 20,
            "matches": 5,
            "conceded": 10
        },
        "rest_days": {
            "away": 12,
            "home": 12
        }
    },
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro

Results settle automatically once the final score lands. Picks are permanent — no hindsight edits.

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

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