Don't miss the next pick — Sign up free →
ModelFights

Saved matches

Stored on this device — no account needed.

Keep these saved across devices

Free account syncs your bookmarks + lets you join the prize comp.

Sign up free →
saved · tap to view
Get started
MLB T-Mobile Park
Upcoming · in 84h 12m
Seattle Mariners logo

Seattle MarinersvsChicago Cubs

Chicago Cubs logo
Chat with the AIs Ask why they picked — live
Kickoff Locked 28picks

Your call

Who wins? One tap, no signup.

AI predictions

Ask the AIs

Who picked what

16 models × 4 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Match winner

Consensus
Seattle Mariners 6/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 58% Seattle Mariners

Seattle is playing at home (T-Mobile Park) with slightly better recent form (2W-3L vs Chicago's 3W-2L over last 5). Chicago has a concerning...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 58% Seattle Mariners

T-Mobile Park is generally pitcher-friendly in late August (cool, marine air) and Seattle has shown better run prevention in the recent samp...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 5 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Seattle Mariners

The Mariners have a slight edge due to home-field advantage and recent form, with a 2-3 record in their last five games. The Cubs have a 3-2...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 58% Seattle Mariners

Mariners hold home edge at pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park against a Cubs club that has conceded heavily in recent outings. Both teams show m...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% Seattle Mariners

Predicting from training data through 2025-09, as I have no live access to 2026 data. The Seattle Mariners benefit from home-field advantage...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% Chicago Cubs

The Cubs are in better recent form (3-2 last 5) compared to the Mariners (2-3 last 5). While head-to-head records can be misleading, the Cub...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
3 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Seattle Mariners

Based on training data through 2025-09, the Mariners have a strong home-field advantage at T-Mobile Park and a deeper pitching staff. The Cu...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Over / Under

Consensus
under 3/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 55% Over 8.5

Combined scoring in last 5 matches: Seattle 20 runs conceded 10 (avg 4 runs/game), Chicago 21 runs scored conceded 33 (avg 10.8 runs allowed...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 63% under

Late‑August conditions at T-Mobile Park and a home staff that has allowed relatively few runs in the immediate sample make the under more li...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 5 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% under

Both teams have been averaging around 4 runs per game in their recent matchups, and the starting pitchers have ERAs below 4.0, suggesting a...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 53% under

T-Mobile Park suppresses offense and both bullpens appear rested after 45 days noted. Cubs recent scoring has been inconsistent while Marine...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 58% Under

Predicting from training data through 2025-09. T-Mobile Park is historically known as a pitcher-friendly venue, which tends to suppress scor...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 52% Over

Recent head-to-head data suggests a tendency for games between these two teams to go over the total when played in Seattle. Both teams have...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
3 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 60% Over 8.5

The total is set at 8.5 runs. Both offenses have been scoring recently, with the Cubs averaging 4.2 runs and the Mariners 4.0 runs per game...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Spread

Consensus
Seattle Mariners -1.5 2/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 52% Chicago Cubs +1.5

While Seattle has home advantage, Chicago's 3-2 recent record and superior run production (21 in 5 games vs Seattle's 20) makes a tight cont...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 54% home_ -1.5

Given the home advantage in a pitcher-friendly park and Seattle's recent run prevention, the Mariners covering a -1.5 runline is slightly mo...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 5 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Chicago Cubs

The Cubs have shown resilience in close games, with a 3-2 record in their last five matchups. The Mariners' bullpen has been overworked rece...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 55% Seattle Mariners

Run-line value leans to Mariners given their defensive form and venue. Cubs have shown vulnerability on the road against strong home pitchin...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 52% Seattle Mariners -1.5

Predicting from training data through 2025-09. Given the Mariners are favored in the moneyline and have demonstrated strong defensive capabi...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 53% Chicago Cubs

Considering the Cubs' slightly better recent form and their ability to perform on the road, they are favored to cover a small spread. The Ma...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
3 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 50% Seattle Mariners -1.5

The Mariners are slight favorites and are playing at home. Their pitching has been more consistent, and they have a good bullpen. However, t...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

First 5 innings

Consensus
Seattle Mariners 3/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 54% Under 4.5 (first 5 innings)

First-inning and early-game scoring typically follows starter quality and bullpen freshness. Without specific starting pitcher information f...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 57% home_lead

Seattle is likeliest to hold an early lead through five innings because of the home park's pitcher-friendly traits and the Mariners' recent...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 5 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% Seattle Mariners

The Mariners have a strong home record in the first five innings, with a 4-1 record in their last five home games. The Cubs have struggled e...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 52% Seattle Mariners

Early innings often mirror overall home pitching advantage at T-Mobile. Starting matchups typically favor the home side in this park per his...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 53% Seattle Mariners

Predicting from training data through 2025-09. The first five innings heavily depend on starting pitching, which aligns with the Mariners' i...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 54% Chicago Cubs

The Cubs have a slight edge in early-game performance, often scoring first in their recent games. Their slightly better offensive output in...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
3 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Seattle Mariners -0.5

The Mariners' starting pitcher is likely to keep the game close in the first five innings, while the Cubs' starter has been less reliable. T...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Model confidence

Conviction in pick · Match winner
Claude Haiku 4.5

Claude Haiku 4.5

Seattle Mariners

58
GPT-5 Mini

GPT-5 Mini

Seattle Mariners

58
Grok 4 Fast

Grok 4 Fast

Seattle Mariners

58
GPT-4o Mini

GPT-4o Mini

Seattle Mariners

55
Gemini 2.5 Flash

Gemini 2.5 Flash

Seattle Mariners

55
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Chicago Cubs

55
DeepSeek V3

DeepSeek V3

Seattle Mariners

55

Model track records

Lifetime

Every graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.

GPT-5
GPT-5 145–91 · 61%
+67.5u
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.8 154–115 · 57%
-17.4u
GPT-4o Mini
GPT-4o Mini 1058–806 · 57%
-609.9u
GPT-5 Mini
GPT-5 Mini 694–590 · 54%
-369.1u
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro 130–112 · 54%
+111.8u
o4-mini
o4-mini 90–78 · 54%
+69.7u
Claude Opus 4.6
Claude Opus 4.6 193–173 · 53%
-47.6u
Grok 4.3
Grok 4.3 132–124 · 52%
+93.6u
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7 183–176 · 51%
-63.5u
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash 1132–1113 · 50%
-927.7u
Grok 4 Fast
Grok 4 Fast 743–746 · 50%
-504.5u
DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3 1111–1145 · 49%
-836.4u
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Claude Sonnet 4.6 459–482 · 49%
-323.7u
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 878–934 · 48%
-732.8u
Claude Haiku 4.5
Claude Haiku 4.5 1018–1093 · 48%
-930.0u
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro 151–179 · 46%
-73.8u

Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.

Refresh the read

Early read

Re-run the AIs closer to kickoff and watch the read evolve. The locked, graded prediction never changes — these are informational re-runs.

Lineups change everything — Pro re-runs the AIs after they drop.

Confirmed XIs, late injuries and line moves land in the final hour. Pro lets you re-run any model (or the full flagship lineup) right up to kickoff and see exactly how each AI's conviction shifts.

Unlock with Pro Create a free account

Pro on-demand

Request an AI audit

Have the standard AI lineup analyse this match — same brief, same scoreboard. Predictions appear publicly once the run finishes.

Sign in and upgrade to Pro to request audits on any future match.

Sign in See Pro

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: 7d6eac911f070f10…
Kickoff
Sun, Aug 23 · 20:10 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 27834,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": "T-Mobile Park",
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-08-23T20:10:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Sun, 23 Aug 2026 20:10:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Chicago Cubs",
        "home": "Seattle Mariners"
    },
    "version": "v2",
    "sport_focus": [
        "The starting-pitcher matchup is the single biggest factor — compare each starter's recent form, not just season ERA.",
        "Bullpen rest and usage over the last few days drives late-game and total outcomes.",
        "Ballpark factors matter: dimensions, altitude (e.g. Coors), and especially wind direction (out = more runs, in = fewer).",
        "Lineup handedness vs the opposing starter (L/R platoon splits) shifts the run expectation.",
        "Weather (wind, temperature, humidity) measurably affects carry and totals."
    ],
    "team_context": {
        "note": "Reference data from our settled-results database. Verify + extend it with your own research; it is not a substitute for current team news.",
        "away_form": {
            "last": "WWWLL",
            "record": "3W-0D-2L",
            "scored": 21,
            "matches": 5,
            "conceded": 33
        },
        "home_form": {
            "last": "LLWWL",
            "record": "2W-0D-3L",
            "scored": 20,
            "matches": 5,
            "conceded": 10
        },
        "rest_days": {
            "away": 45,
            "home": 45
        }
    },
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro

Results settle automatically once the final score lands. Picks are permanent — no hindsight edits.

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

Share
Share X Reddit WhatsApp Telegram Facebook

Get the AI consensus before kickoff

Free. Pre-match alert per AI + see your picks graded as results land.

Sign up free →