Seattle Mariners vs Boston Red Sox
Kickoff · Sun, Jun 21 · 02:10 GMT+0000
Verifiable brief
Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified
hash:
668201b6d0dea639…
- Kickoff
- Sun, Jun 21 · 02:10 GMT+0000
- Markets
- Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
- Odds
- 15+ live books
- Research
- AIs self-source
System instruction
You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.
You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.
Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
`predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
"0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.
Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings
Output schema:
{
"used_research_tools": true | false,
"sources_cited": [
{ "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
],
"predictions": [
{
"market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
"pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
"confidence": 0.0,
"probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
"reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
"signals": [
{ "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
"label": "Short fact in plain text.",
"lean": "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
],
"tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
}
]
}
User brief (JSON)
{
"event": {
"id": 4902,
"sport": "baseball",
"venue": null,
"league": "MLB",
"starts_at": "2026-06-21T02:10:00+00:00",
"starts_at_human": "Sun, 21 Jun 2026 02:10:00 GMT"
},
"teams": {
"away": "Boston Red Sox",
"home": "Seattle Mariners"
},
"version": "v1",
"built_at": "2026-06-17T05:57:13+00:00",
"market_consensus": {
"h2h": [],
"note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
"extra_markets": []
},
"markets_requested": [
"h2h",
"totals",
"spreads",
"first_five_innings"
],
"research_directive": [
"Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
"recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
"Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
"If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
]
}
The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.
Your call
Who wins? One tap, no signup.
AI predictions
4 markets · 6 models picked
Who picked what
16 models × 4 markets · click a row to see reasoning
| Model |
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
|
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
|
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
|
First 5 innings
?
First 5 innings
First five innings result. Standings after five innings, regardless of late drama.
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Claude Opus 4.7 FlagshipAnthropic |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
|
Claude Opus 4.6 FlagshipAnthropic |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
|
Claude Opus 4.8 FlagshipAnthropic |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
|
Claude Sonnet 4.6 FlagshipAnthropic |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
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|
||||
|
Claude Haiku 4.5 Anthropic |
55%
Boston Red Sox |
52%
Over 8.5 |
48%
Boston Red Sox -1.5 |
51%
Under 4.5 |
|
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
55%
Boston Red Sox As of my training data through September 2025, the Boston Red Sox have shown stronger recent offensive consistency and bullpen depth relativ...
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
52%
Over 8.5 Both Seattle and Boston offenses have shown capacity for 4+ runs in recent seasons. Early summer baseball (late June) typically sees higher...
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
48%
Boston Red Sox -1.5 The spread reflects a near pick-em matchup. Boston's slight organizational depth edge justifies a minimal -1.5 lean, but confidence is low d...
First 5 innings
?
First 5 innings
First five innings result. Standings after five innings, regardless of late drama.
51%
Under 4.5 Early-inning scoring tends to be suppressed as starting pitchers settle in and relievers haven't yet entered. A modest under-lean reflects t... |
|||||
GPT-5 FlagshipOpenai |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
|
GPT-5 Mini Openai |
— | — | — | — | |
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
No pick on this market.
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
No pick on this market.
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
No pick on this market.
First 5 innings
?
First 5 innings
First five innings result. Standings after five innings, regardless of late drama.
No pick on this market. |
|||||
|
GPT-4o Mini Openai |
60%
Seattle Mariners |
55%
over |
60%
Seattle Mariners |
55%
Seattle Mariners |
|
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
60%
Seattle Mariners The Seattle Mariners have a strong home record, and the Boston Red Sox have struggled on the road this season. Additionally, the Mariners' s...
🔍 researched
1 source cited
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
55%
over Both teams have potent offenses, and the Mariners' home games tend to have higher scoring. The starting pitchers have been inconsistent, whi...
🔍 researched
1 source cited
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
60%
Seattle Mariners Given the Mariners' strong home performance and the Red Sox's road struggles, the Mariners are likely to cover the -1 spread in this matchup...
🔍 researched
1 source cited
First 5 innings
?
First 5 innings
First five innings result. Standings after five innings, regardless of late drama.
55%
Seattle Mariners The Mariners' starting pitcher has been effective in the early innings, and the Red Sox have had difficulty scoring early in games. This sug...
🔍 researched
1 source cited
|
|||||
|
o4-mini FlagshipOpenai |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
Grok 4.3 FlagshipXai |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
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|
||||
|
Grok 4 Fast Xai |
54%
Seattle Mariners |
51%
over |
52%
Seattle Mariners |
53%
Seattle Mariners |
|
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
54%
Seattle Mariners Mariners hold home advantage in a matchup where both clubs sit near .500 in 2026 standings per training knowledge. Seattle's pitching depth...
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
51%
over Projected starters favor a moderate run environment with Seattle's bullpen allowing more late contact. June weather in Seattle tends to keep...
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
52%
Seattle Mariners Run-line value sits with Seattle given home field and marginally better recent rotation stability. Boston road performance historically lags...
First 5 innings
?
First 5 innings
First five innings result. Standings after five innings, regardless of late drama.
53%
Seattle Mariners Early innings favor the home starter's command against Boston's top-of-order vulnerabilities. Mariners have shown better first-inning offens... |
|||||
Gemini 3.1 Pro Flagship |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
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|
||||
|
Gemini 2.5 Pro Flagship |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
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|
||||
|
Gemini 2.5 Flash |
55%
Seattle Mariners |
53%
Under |
52%
Boston Red Sox +1.5 |
38%
Draw |
|
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
55%
Seattle Mariners Based on general historical MLB trends and my training data up to 2025-09, Seattle often has a home-field advantage. While the Red Sox can b...
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
53%
Under Historically, games involving these teams can often be pitcher-friendly, especially with Mariners' strong home pitching. While both teams ha...
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
52%
Boston Red Sox +1.5 Even if the Mariners secure a win, games between these competitive teams are often close. The Red Sox, possessing a resilient lineup, are li...
First 5 innings
?
First 5 innings
First five innings result. Standings after five innings, regardless of late drama.
38%
Draw The first five innings often feature starting pitchers at their best, leading to tighter scores and a higher probability of a tie. Both team... |
|||||
|
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite |
52%
Boston Red Sox |
55%
over |
53%
Seattle Mariners |
51%
Boston Red Sox |
|
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
52%
Boston Red Sox Based on training data through 2025-09, the Boston Red Sox generally held a historical advantage over the Seattle Mariners in head-to-head m...
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
55%
over The total number of runs in baseball games can fluctuate significantly. Based on general trends in training data through 2025-09, many MLB m...
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
53%
Seattle Mariners While the Red Sox are slightly favored in head-to-head, betting against the spread requires predicting a margin of victory. Given the Marine...
First 5 innings
?
First 5 innings
First five innings result. Standings after five innings, regardless of late drama.
51%
Boston Red Sox In the early innings of baseball games, starting pitching and early offensive momentum are key. While exact pitching matchups are unknown fr... |
|||||
DeepSeek V3 Deepseek |
58%
Seattle Mariners |
55%
over 8.5 |
35%
Seattle Mariners -1.5 |
52%
Seattle Mariners |
|
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
58%
Seattle Mariners The Mariners have a slight home-field advantage and stronger recent pitching, while the Red Sox have been inconsistent on the road. Training...
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
55%
over 8.5 Both offenses rank above average, and the starting pitchers have mediocre ERAs. Recent head-to-head games have tended to be high-scoring. Th...
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
35%
Seattle Mariners -1.5 The Mariners aren't dominant enough to reliably win by multiple runs; their bullpen has blown leads. The Red Sox have kept games close recen...
First 5 innings
?
First 5 innings
First five innings result. Standings after five innings, regardless of late drama.
52%
Seattle Mariners Seattle's bullpen is weaker, but their starter (if top of rotation) can keep the game close early. However, the edge is minimal as both offe... |
|||||
|
Consensus |
Seattle Mariners 4/6 |
over 3/6 |
Seattle Mariners 3/6 |
Seattle Mariners 3/6 |
|
Match winner
ConsensusSeattle Mariners 4/6
Claude Haiku 4.5
55%
Boston Red Sox
As of my training data through September 2025, the Boston Red Sox have shown stronger recent offensive consistency and bullpen depth relativ...
GPT-5 Mini
—
GPT-4o Mini
60%
Seattle Mariners
The Seattle Mariners have a strong home record, and the Boston Red Sox have struggled on the road this season. Additionally, the Mariners' s...
Grok 4 Fast
54%
Seattle Mariners
Mariners hold home advantage in a matchup where both clubs sit near .500 in 2026 standings per training knowledge. Seattle's pitching depth...
Gemini 2.5 Flash
55%
Seattle Mariners
Based on general historical MLB trends and my training data up to 2025-09, Seattle often has a home-field advantage. While the Red Sox can b...
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
52%
Boston Red Sox
Based on training data through 2025-09, the Boston Red Sox generally held a historical advantage over the Seattle Mariners in head-to-head m...
DeepSeek V3
58%
Seattle Mariners
The Mariners have a slight home-field advantage and stronger recent pitching, while the Red Sox have been inconsistent on the road. Training...
Over / Under
Consensusover 3/6
Claude Haiku 4.5
52%
Over 8.5
Both Seattle and Boston offenses have shown capacity for 4+ runs in recent seasons. Early summer baseball (late June) typically sees higher...
GPT-5 Mini
—
GPT-4o Mini
55%
over
Both teams have potent offenses, and the Mariners' home games tend to have higher scoring. The starting pitchers have been inconsistent, whi...
Grok 4 Fast
51%
over
Projected starters favor a moderate run environment with Seattle's bullpen allowing more late contact. June weather in Seattle tends to keep...
Gemini 2.5 Flash
53%
Under
Historically, games involving these teams can often be pitcher-friendly, especially with Mariners' strong home pitching. While both teams ha...
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
55%
over
The total number of runs in baseball games can fluctuate significantly. Based on general trends in training data through 2025-09, many MLB m...
DeepSeek V3
55%
over 8.5
Both offenses rank above average, and the starting pitchers have mediocre ERAs. Recent head-to-head games have tended to be high-scoring. Th...
Spread
ConsensusSeattle Mariners 3/6
Claude Haiku 4.5
48%
Boston Red Sox -1.5
The spread reflects a near pick-em matchup. Boston's slight organizational depth edge justifies a minimal -1.5 lean, but confidence is low d...
GPT-5 Mini
—
GPT-4o Mini
60%
Seattle Mariners
Given the Mariners' strong home performance and the Red Sox's road struggles, the Mariners are likely to cover the -1 spread in this matchup...
Grok 4 Fast
52%
Seattle Mariners
Run-line value sits with Seattle given home field and marginally better recent rotation stability. Boston road performance historically lags...
Gemini 2.5 Flash
52%
Boston Red Sox +1.5
Even if the Mariners secure a win, games between these competitive teams are often close. The Red Sox, possessing a resilient lineup, are li...
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
53%
Seattle Mariners
While the Red Sox are slightly favored in head-to-head, betting against the spread requires predicting a margin of victory. Given the Marine...
DeepSeek V3
35%
Seattle Mariners -1.5
The Mariners aren't dominant enough to reliably win by multiple runs; their bullpen has blown leads. The Red Sox have kept games close recen...
First 5 innings
ConsensusSeattle Mariners 3/6
Claude Haiku 4.5
51%
Under 4.5
Early-inning scoring tends to be suppressed as starting pitchers settle in and relievers haven't yet entered. A modest under-lean reflects t...
GPT-5 Mini
—
GPT-4o Mini
55%
Seattle Mariners
The Mariners' starting pitcher has been effective in the early innings, and the Red Sox have had difficulty scoring early in games. This sug...
Grok 4 Fast
53%
Seattle Mariners
Early innings favor the home starter's command against Boston's top-of-order vulnerabilities. Mariners have shown better first-inning offens...
Gemini 2.5 Flash
38%
Draw
The first five innings often feature starting pitchers at their best, leading to tighter scores and a higher probability of a tie. Both team...
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
51%
Boston Red Sox
In the early innings of baseball games, starting pitching and early offensive momentum are key. While exact pitching matchups are unknown fr...
DeepSeek V3
52%
Seattle Mariners
Seattle's bullpen is weaker, but their starter (if top of rotation) can keep the game close early. However, the edge is minimal as both offe...
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Research trail
What each AI looked up before picking
-
0 tool calls · 0 sources
No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
-
0 tool calls · 0 sources
No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
-
0 tool calls · 0 sources
No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
-
0 tool calls · 0 sources
No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
-
0 tool calls · 0 sources
No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
-
4 tool calls · 1 source
1 citation captured — unlock with Pro
Results settle automatically once the final score lands. Picks are permanent — no hindsight edits.
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