Seattle Mariners vs Boston Red Sox

Kickoff · Sat, Jun 20 · 02:10 GMT+0000

Picks locked at Jun 16 · 06:33 GMT+0000 24 picks recorded

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified


                    hash:
                    5a6266638237d6eb…

Sport: Sat, Jun 20 · 02:10 GMT+0000
Markets: h2h · totals · spreads · first_five_innings
Source: The Odds API · live
Research: AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 4363,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-06-20T02:10:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Sat, 20 Jun 2026 02:10:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Boston Red Sox",
        "home": "Seattle Mariners"
    },
    "version": "v1",
    "built_at": "2026-06-16T06:33:28+00:00",
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Your call

Who wins? One tap, no signup.

AI predictions

4 markets · 6 models picked

Who picked what

15 models × 4 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Unlock flagship models

Model	Match winner ?	Over / Under ?	Spread ?	First 5 innings ?
Claude Opus 4.7 Flagship Anthropic · 20-47 -30.7u	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Flagship Anthropic · 20-47 -27.1u	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Opus 4 Flagship Anthropic	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Flagship Anthropic · 201-251 -196.7u	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Anthropic · 232-276 -221.0u	55% Seattle Mariners	52% Over 8.5	51% Seattle Mariners -1.5	53% Seattle Mariners
Match winner ? 55% Seattle Mariners As of my training knowledge (through September 2024), the Mariners have been a competitive AL West team with strong pitching, while the Red... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 52% Over 8.5 MLB regular-season games typically average 8–9 runs across both teams. Without access to current 2026 starting pitchers, bullpen health, or... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 51% Seattle Mariners -1.5 A 1.5-run spread is tight, reflecting the competitive nature of this matchup. Historical trends suggest Seattle's pitching-first approach an... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 53% Seattle Mariners First-five-inning markets typically correlate with starting pitcher quality and early offensive momentum. The Mariners' historical strength... Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 Flagship Openai	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
GPT-5 Mini Openai · 51-65 -9.6u	—	—	—	—
Match winner ? No pick on this market. Over / Under ? No pick on this market. Spread ? No pick on this market. First 5 innings ? No pick on this market.
GPT-4o Mini Openai · 52-117 -86.0u	65% Seattle Mariners	55% over	60% Seattle Mariners	60% Seattle Mariners
Match winner ? 65% Seattle Mariners The Mariners have a stronger home record (19-16) compared to the Red Sox's away record (17-16). Additionally, the Mariners have been in bett... Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched 3 sources cited Over / Under ? 55% over Both teams have shown moderate offensive capabilities, with the Mariners averaging 4.2 runs per game and the Red Sox 3.9. Given the Mariners... Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched 3 sources cited Spread ? 60% Seattle Mariners The Mariners' home advantage and superior recent form suggest they are likely to win by at least one run. Their home record and the Red Sox'... Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched 3 sources cited First 5 innings ? 60% Seattle Mariners The Mariners' strong home performance and the Red Sox's away challenges suggest the Mariners are likely to lead after the first five innings... Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o3 Flagship Openai	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Grok 4 Heavy Flagship Xai	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Grok 4 Fast Xai · 145-303 -211.3u	53% Seattle Mariners	51% over	52% Seattle Mariners	51% Seattle Mariners
Match winner ? 53% Seattle Mariners Training data through 2025-09 shows Seattle typically stronger at home against AL East teams like Boston. No specific 2026 lineups or injuri... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 51% over Training data through 2025-09 indicates average run totals around 8.8 in Mariners home games. Pitching staffs for both clubs have been incon... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 52% Seattle Mariners Training data through 2025-09 favors Seattle covering modest spreads at home. Boston has shown vulnerability in interleague or cross-country... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 51% Seattle Mariners Training data through 2025-09 shows Mariners often jump to early leads at T-Mobile Park. Boston bullpen usage patterns have occasionally lef... Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Flagship Google · 14-46 -31.9u	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Google · 176-261 -223.1u	58% Seattle Mariners	52% Under 8.5	62% Boston Red Sox +1.5	57% Seattle Mariners
Match winner ? 58% Seattle Mariners Predictions are based on general historical team strengths and typical MLB dynamics, as live data for a 2026 game is unavailable. The Seattl... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 52% Under 8.5 Given the lack of specific pitching matchups for this future game, the prediction leans slightly towards the under assuming typical MLB pitc... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 62% Boston Red Sox +1.5 While the Mariners are favored to win outright, covering the -1.5 run line in MLB is always challenging without specific pitching or lineup... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 57% Seattle Mariners The First Five Innings market heavily favors the starting pitchers, and the Seattle Mariners generally boast a strong rotation, especially a... Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Google · 84-212 -157.8u	55% Boston Red Sox	52% over	53% Seattle Mariners	54% Boston Red Sox
Match winner ? 55% Boston Red Sox Based on training data, the Boston Red Sox generally hold a historical edge over the Seattle Mariners. While specific recent form is unavail... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 52% over Considering typical MLB game dynamics and without specific pitching matchups or recent offensive trends, a slight lean towards 'over' is giv... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 53% Seattle Mariners Given the slight historical advantage of the Red Sox (away team), predicting the Mariners to cover a small spread when playing at home is a... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 54% Boston Red Sox The early innings often reflect the perceived strengths of the starting pitchers and offensive momentum. Based on the Red Sox's slight histo... Unlock reasoning · Pro
DeepSeek V3 Deepseek · 201-294 -242.4u	55% Seattle Mariners	52% Over 8.5	58% Boston Red Sox +1.5	53% Seattle Mariners
Match winner ? 55% Seattle Mariners The Mariners have a strong home record and a deep pitching staff, but the Red Sox lineup is potent. Based on training data through late 2025... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 52% Over 8.5 Both offenses are capable and the weather in Seattle in June typically favors hitting. However, pitching matchups are unknown; the slight ed... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 58% Boston Red Sox +1.5 The Red Sox are a strong road team that often keeps games close even when they lose. With no known blowout factor, Boston covering +1.5 is s... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 53% Seattle Mariners Seattle's bullpen might be stronger later, but the first five innings favor whichever starting pitcher is sharper. With home advantage, the... Unlock reasoning · Pro
Consensus	Seattle Mariners 5/6	over 3/6	Seattle Mariners 3/6	Seattle Mariners 5/6

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Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro

Grok 4 Fast
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
Claude Haiku 4.5
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
GPT-4o Mini
4 tool calls · 3 sources

3 citations captured — unlock with Pro
DeepSeek V3
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
Gemini 2.5 Flash
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

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