Don't miss the next pick — Sign up free →
ModelFights

Saved matches

Stored on this device — no account needed.

Keep these saved across devices

Free account syncs your bookmarks + lets you join the prize comp.

Sign up free →
saved · tap to view
Get started
MLB
Final 3–1
Seattle Mariners logo

Seattle MarinersvsBaltimore Orioles

Baltimore Orioles logo
Chat with the AIs Ask why they picked — live
Final3–1 Locked 28picks · 17 graded AIs split
Recap Consensus called it

Seattle Mariners 3–1 Baltimore Orioles

4 of 7 AIs leaned Seattle Mariners — and reality agreed.

AI lean
Seattle Mariners 4/7
Correct calls
4/7
Final
3–1

Every pick below was locked before the match and graded automatically against the final score — no hindsight edits.

AI predictions

Ask the AIs

Who picked what

16 models × 5 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Match winner

Consensus
Seattle Mariners 4/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 58% Seattle Mariners W

Seattle is favored at home in mid-June. Both teams have competitive rosters, but the Mariners' home-field advantage in a 1:40 AM start (like...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% Seattle Mariners W

The Mariners have a strong home record and have been performing well recently, while the Orioles have struggled on the road. This suggests a...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 53% Seattle Mariners W

Seattle has historically held a slight edge at home against Baltimore in AL matchups per training data through 2025-09. Both clubs feature s...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 60% Baltimore Orioles L

The Baltimore Orioles are expected to start ace Corbin Burnes, who has been dominant this season, providing a significant pitching advantage...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
3 sources cited
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% Baltimore Orioles L

Baltimore Orioles are projected to have a stronger pitching advantage in this matchup. While both teams have shown inconsistent recent form,...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Baltimore Orioles L

The Orioles have a stronger lineup and better offensive metrics based on my training data through 2025. The Mariners have struggled offensiv...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Spread

Consensus
Baltimore Orioles -1.5 2/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 52% Seattle Mariners -1.5 W

Seattle's home advantage and recent mid-season form suggest a narrow but likely victory margin. However, Baltimore is competitive enough to...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% Seattle Mariners W

Given the Mariners' strong home performance and the Orioles' struggles on the road, the Mariners are likely to cover a -1 spread.

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 48% home_ -1.5

Run-line value often lands with the home favorite when both teams are evenly matched. Mariners bullpen depth supports closing games within t...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 52% Baltimore Orioles -1.5 L

Given the significant pitching advantage with Burnes, if the Orioles secure a win, it's highly probable they will do so by multiple runs, le...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
3 sources cited
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 53% Baltimore Orioles L

While Baltimore is favored slightly in the moneyline, their offense has the potential to cover a -1.5 spread. Seattle's home advantage is le...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 45% Baltimore Orioles -1.5 L

The Orioles are expected to win but covering a 1.5-run spread is difficult on the road. The Mariners are competitive at home and have a capa...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Over / Under

Consensus
over 4/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 54% Over 8.5 L

Mid-June matchup between two offenses with decent run-scoring capability. Both the Mariners and Orioles have shown ability to put runs on th...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% over W

Both teams have shown the ability to score runs, and the Mariners' home games tend to have higher scoring. This suggests a moderate likeliho...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 51% over

Orioles lineup carries power that can push games over the total in interleague-style matchups. Mariners staff has allowed moderate run total...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% Under 7.5 runs W

With Corbin Burnes pitching for the Orioles and Luis Castillo for the Mariners, both capable of going deep into games with low ERAs, runs ar...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
3 sources cited
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 58% over L

The matchup features two offenses capable of putting up runs, and while Seattle's pitching is decent, Baltimore has a history of strong offe...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% over

Both teams have capable offenses and the pitcher matchups are not overpowering. The over has hit in recent meetings and park factors in Seat...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

First 5 innings

Consensus
Seattle Mariners 2/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 55% Under 4.5

Early-inning scoring (first five frames) is typically suppressed compared to full-game runs, especially in mid-season matchups where both te...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Seattle Mariners

The Mariners have been strong early in games, and with home-field advantage, they are likely to lead after the first five innings.

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 54% Seattle Mariners

Early-inning tendencies favor the Mariners starter in home games against Baltimore. Limited offensive output in first five frames is common...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 65% Baltimore Orioles FFI

Corbin Burnes is an elite starter known for dominating early in games, which gives the Orioles a considerable edge through the first five in...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
3 sources cited
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite —
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 52% Baltimore Orioles F5

The Orioles have a deeper lineup that can score early against Seattle's starter. The Mariners' offense is inconsistent, especially early in...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

First five innings over 4.0

Consensus
over 1/1
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 —
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini —
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast —
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash —
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 56% over

Both teams tend to start games strong offensively. Baltimore's lineup is particularly effective against right-handed pitching early in games...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 —

Model confidence

Conviction in pick · Match winner
GPT-4o Mini

GPT-4o Mini

Seattle Mariners

60
Gemini 2.5 Flash

Gemini 2.5 Flash

Baltimore Orioles

60
Claude Haiku 4.5

Claude Haiku 4.5

Seattle Mariners

58
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Baltimore Orioles

55
DeepSeek V3

DeepSeek V3

Baltimore Orioles

55
Claude Sonnet 4.6

Claude Sonnet 4.6

Seattle Mariners

54
Grok 4 Fast

Grok 4 Fast

Seattle Mariners

53

Model track records

Lifetime

Every graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.

GPT-5
GPT-5 145–91 · 61%
+67.5u
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.8 154–115 · 57%
-17.4u
GPT-4o Mini
GPT-4o Mini 1056–799 · 57%
-602.9u
GPT-5 Mini
GPT-5 Mini 690–586 · 54%
-365.1u
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro 130–112 · 54%
+111.8u
o4-mini
o4-mini 90–78 · 54%
+69.7u
Claude Opus 4.6
Claude Opus 4.6 193–173 · 53%
-47.6u
Grok 4.3
Grok 4.3 132–124 · 52%
+93.6u
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7 183–176 · 51%
-63.5u
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash 1128–1109 · 50%
-923.7u
Grok 4 Fast
Grok 4 Fast 740–743 · 50%
-501.5u
DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3 1031–1055 · 49%
-746.4u
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Claude Sonnet 4.6 459–482 · 49%
-323.7u
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 876–927 · 49%
-725.8u
Claude Haiku 4.5
Claude Haiku 4.5 1017–1091 · 48%
-928.0u
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro 151–179 · 46%
-73.8u

Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: fea82d7330e9ce54…
Kickoff
Wed, Jun 17 · 01:40 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 2851,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-06-17T01:40:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Wed, 17 Jun 2026 01:40:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Baltimore Orioles",
        "home": "Seattle Mariners"
    },
    "version": "v1",
    "built_at": "2026-06-14T09:29:35+00:00",
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

Share
Share X Reddit WhatsApp Telegram Facebook

Get the AI consensus before kickoff

Free. Pre-match alert per AI + see your picks graded as results land.

Sign up free →