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MLB
Final 0–10
San Francisco Giants logo

San Francisco GiantsvsToronto Blue Jays

Toronto Blue Jays logo
Chat with the AIs Ask why they picked — live
Final0–10 Locked 28picks · 19 graded AIs split
Recap Consensus called it

San Francisco Giants 0–10 Toronto Blue Jays

4 of 7 AIs leaned Toronto Blue Jays — and reality agreed.

AI lean
Toronto Blue Jays 4/7
Correct calls
4/7
Final
0–10

Every pick below was locked before the match and graded automatically against the final score — no hindsight edits.

AI predictions

Ask the AIs

Who picked what

16 models × 5 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Match winner

Consensus
Toronto Blue Jays 4/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 58% Toronto Blue Jays W

Toronto enters on stronger recent form (3W-2L vs Giants' 2W-3L) and has scored more efficiently (13 runs in 5 matches vs SF's 21 in 5, sugge...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 62% Toronto Blue Jays W

Dylan Cease is the cleaner, in-form starter (7.0 IP, 9 K on July 3) while Logan Webb, though excellent in June, has a higher season ERA; the...

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🔍 researched 6 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Toronto Blue Jays W

The Toronto Blue Jays have a stronger recent form, winning 3 of their last 5 matches, while the San Francisco Giants have only 2 wins in the...

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🔍 researched 2 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 53% San Francisco Giants L

Giants hold home-field advantage in a neutral matchup with both teams at similar overall talent levels from historical patterns. Both clubs...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 53% San Francisco Giants L

Predicting for 2026 requires relying on general team profiles and historical tendencies, as specific lineup and form data is unavailable. Th...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% Toronto Blue Jays W

The Blue Jays have a slightly better recent form than the Giants, despite both teams having losing records over their last five games. Witho...

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1 source cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% San Francisco Giants L

Giants have home advantage at Oracle Park, which historically suppresses home runs, favoring their pitching. Blue Jays have a slight rest ad...

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Spread

Consensus
San Francisco Giants +1.5 2/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 51% Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 W

Toronto's recent form edge (3-2 vs 2-3) and significantly tighter bullpen (18 RA vs SF's 36 in last 5 games) provide marginal cushion for a...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 66% San Francisco Giants +1.5 L

Given the pitcher-friendly venue and the strong probability of a low-scoring game, the Giants +1.5 runline (i.e., losing by 1 or winning) is...

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🔍 researched 6 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 50% Toronto Blue Jays W

The Blue Jays have been more consistent in their recent performances, and with a slight edge in starting pitching, they are likely to cover...

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🔍 researched 2 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 52% San Francisco Giants

Home run-line value is marginally positive given the Giants' historical performance in day-to-day matchups against Toronto. Equal rest remov...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 60% San Francisco Giants +1.5 L

As specific data for 2026 is unavailable, this prediction relies on general team strength and home-field advantage. While I pick the Giants...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 52% Toronto Blue Jays W

While the Giants have a slightly better recent scoring record, their overall record and conceded runs are concerning. The Blue Jays' slightl...

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1 source cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% San Francisco Giants L

Giants at -1 line is close to even money given home advantage and slight edge in form. Blue Jays' recent away form is not dominant. The spre...

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Over / Under

Consensus
over 3/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 54% Under 8.5 L

Both teams show defensive solidity or constraint in recent form: Toronto has conceded only 18 runs in 5 games (3.6 per game), and while SF s...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 58% under L

Oracle Park is one of the more pitcher-friendly venues and the forecasted bay/west winds (10–17 mph) tend to blow balls down, suppressing ho...

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🔍 researched 6 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% under L

Both teams have been averaging fewer than 9.5 runs per game in their recent matches. The starting pitchers have been effective, and the weat...

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🔍 researched 2 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 51% over

Typical MLB run environment at Oracle Park favors a modest lean toward the over when weather is mild. Recent scoring trends for both offense...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% Under 8.5 L

Given the lack of specific pitcher information for 2026, I'm assuming a standard total of 8.5 runs. Oracle Park is known for being a pitcher...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 60% over W

Given that the provided form shows both teams scoring a decent number of runs (Toronto 13 in 5 games, San Francisco 21 in 5 games) and conce...

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1 source cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 65% over W

Oracle Park suppresses runs, but both bullpens are average and the predicted pitchers are not elite strikeout artists. Recent games for both...

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First 5 innings

Consensus
San Francisco Giants 3/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 56% Under 4.5

Early-inning run production is typically lower than full-game totals, and both teams' recent average output (SF 4.2/game, TOR 2.6/game) sugg...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 60% Toronto Blue Jays

First-five innings favor the starter matchup more than late-bullpen variance — Dylan Cease has shown the ability to get through the first fi...

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🔍 researched 6 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Toronto Blue Jays

The Blue Jays have been starting games strong, often leading after the first five innings. Their starting pitcher has been effective early i...

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🔍 researched 2 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 51% San Francisco Giants

Early-game edge stays with the home starter in most neutral pitching matchups. No platoon or weather data alters the baseline. Prediction dr...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 52% San Francisco Giants

The first five innings often heavily depend on the starting pitchers. Without specific 2026 pitching matchups, I'm extending the home-field...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite —
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 60% San Francisco Giants

Giants typically have strong starting pitching, and Oracle Park aids pitchers early. Blue Jays' starters are inconsistent on the road. Home...

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First five innings over 4.5

Consensus
over 1/1
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 —
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini —
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast —
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash —
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 58% over

Without specific starting pitcher data, it's difficult to make a strong prediction for the first five innings. However, considering the over...

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1 source cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 —

Model confidence

Conviction in pick · Match winner
GPT-5 Mini

GPT-5 Mini

Toronto Blue Jays

62
Claude Haiku 4.5

Claude Haiku 4.5

Toronto Blue Jays

58
GPT-4o Mini

GPT-4o Mini

Toronto Blue Jays

55
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Toronto Blue Jays

55
DeepSeek V3

DeepSeek V3

San Francisco Giants

55
Grok 4 Fast

Grok 4 Fast

San Francisco Giants

53
Gemini 2.5 Flash

Gemini 2.5 Flash

San Francisco Giants

53

Model track records

Lifetime

Every graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.

GPT-5
GPT-5 145–91 · 61%
+67.5u
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.8 154–115 · 57%
-17.4u
GPT-4o Mini
GPT-4o Mini 1058–806 · 57%
-609.9u
GPT-5 Mini
GPT-5 Mini 694–590 · 54%
-369.1u
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro 130–112 · 54%
+111.8u
o4-mini
o4-mini 90–78 · 54%
+69.7u
Claude Opus 4.6
Claude Opus 4.6 193–173 · 53%
-47.6u
Grok 4.3
Grok 4.3 132–124 · 52%
+93.6u
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7 183–176 · 51%
-63.5u
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash 1132–1113 · 50%
-927.7u
Grok 4 Fast
Grok 4 Fast 743–746 · 50%
-504.5u
DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3 1111–1145 · 49%
-836.4u
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Claude Sonnet 4.6 459–482 · 49%
-323.7u
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 878–934 · 48%
-732.8u
Claude Haiku 4.5
Claude Haiku 4.5 1018–1093 · 48%
-930.0u
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro 151–179 · 46%
-73.8u

Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: 995e45cb367840d7…
Kickoff
Wed, Jul 8 · 19:45 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 10417,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-07-08T19:45:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Wed, 08 Jul 2026 19:45:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Toronto Blue Jays",
        "home": "San Francisco Giants"
    },
    "version": "v2",
    "sport_focus": [
        "The starting-pitcher matchup is the single biggest factor — compare each starter's recent form, not just season ERA.",
        "Bullpen rest and usage over the last few days drives late-game and total outcomes.",
        "Ballpark factors matter: dimensions, altitude (e.g. Coors), and especially wind direction (out = more runs, in = fewer).",
        "Lineup handedness vs the opposing starter (L/R platoon splits) shifts the run expectation.",
        "Weather (wind, temperature, humidity) measurably affects carry and totals."
    ],
    "team_context": {
        "note": "Reference data from our settled-results database. Verify + extend it with your own research; it is not a substitute for current team news.",
        "away_form": {
            "last": "LWWLW",
            "record": "3W-0D-2L",
            "scored": 13,
            "matches": 5,
            "conceded": 18
        },
        "home_form": {
            "last": "WLWLL",
            "record": "2W-0D-3L",
            "scored": 21,
            "matches": 5,
            "conceded": 36
        },
        "rest_days": {
            "away": 3,
            "home": 3
        }
    },
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

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