Don't miss the next pick — Sign up free →
ModelFights

Saved matches

Stored on this device — no account needed.

Keep these saved across devices

Free account syncs your bookmarks + lets you join the prize comp.

Sign up free →
saved · tap to view
Get started
MLB Oracle Park
Upcoming · in 90h 47m
San Francisco Giants logo

San Francisco GiantsvsHouston Astros

Houston Astros logo
Chat with the AIs Ask why they picked — live
Kickoff Locked 28picks

Your call

Who wins? One tap, no signup.

AI predictions

Ask the AIs

Who picked what

16 models × 4 markets · click a row to see reasoning

First 5 innings

Consensus
Houston Astros 5/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 59% Under 4.5

Early-inning totals at Oracle Park are typically depressed by the ballpark's tight fences and the prevalence of ground-ball pitchers who thr...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 52% Houston Astros

First-five innings lean to the Astros because their lineup depth typically leads to quicker early scoring and they have marginally better st...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 6 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Houston Astros

The Astros' strong offensive lineup and recent form suggest they will have the lead after the first five innings, making them the favored te...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 53% Giants

Game is in 2026 so all analysis uses training data through 2025-09. Early innings favor the home starter and Giants lineup has shown better...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% Houston Astros

The First Five Innings market heavily relies on starting pitching. Given the Astros' consistent strength and depth in their pitching rotatio...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 54% Houston Astros

The early game advantage is expected to go to the Astros, primarily due to their starting pitcher Justin Verlander having a better matchup a...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
3 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 50% Houston Astros

Starting pitchers are typically the key in the first five innings, but without current starter info, it's a toss-up. The Astros' slight edge...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Over / Under

Consensus
under 2/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 62% Under 8.5

Oracle Park's notoriously tight dimensions (especially in left field), combined with its frequent variable wind patterns, historically depre...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 58% under

Oracle Park is one of baseball's more run-suppressive venues (lower HR and runs factors, plus cold bay wind) which biases totals down; previ...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 6 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% over

Both teams have shown the ability to score runs in recent games, and their offensive statistics suggest a potential for a higher-scoring gam...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 55% under

Game is in 2026 so all analysis uses training data through 2025-09. Oracle Park and typical August marine layer favor lower run totals. Both...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 53% Under 8.5

Oracle Park is historically known as a pitcher-friendly ballpark, which tends to suppress run scoring. Both teams have shown a mix of scorin...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% over

While Oracle Park is generally a pitcher-friendly venue, the offenses for both teams have shown capability to score runs. The Astros have sc...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
3 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 75% Over 2.5

Given both teams have average offenses and we expect a competitive game, scoring at least 3 runs combined is highly likely. The bullpens mig...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Match winner

Consensus
Houston Astros 6/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 58% Houston Astros

Houston has won 3 of their last 5 matches versus San Francisco's 2 of 5, and the Astros' +0 run differential masks stronger offensive consis...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 63% Houston Astros

The Astros are the stronger club on paper this season (Astros ~59-57 vs Giants ~48-67 per MLB team pages) and should enter with the better o...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 6 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% Houston Astros

The Houston Astros have a slightly better overall record and have been more consistent in recent games compared to the San Francisco Giants....

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 52% Giants

Game is in 2026 so all analysis uses training data through 2025-09. Oracle Park suppresses offense and Giants hold a slight home edge in rec...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 56% Houston Astros

Based on general team strength and historical performance captured in my training data through early 2023, the Houston Astros are typically...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% Houston Astros

The Houston Astros have a slight edge due to a more favorable starting pitcher matchup. While both teams have had inconsistent recent form,...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
3 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 52% Houston Astros

Training data through 2025-09. The Astros have a slightly better recent form (3-2) compared to the Giants (2-3), and they typically have a s...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Spread

Consensus
Houston Astros -1.5 2/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 52% Houston Astros -1.5

Houston's stronger recent form (3-2 record, +0 run differential with more aggressive play) and the Giants' modest scoring slump (25 runs in...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 57% San Francisco Giants +1.5

Because Oracle Park suppresses run scoring and the Giants will receive 1.5 runs on the runline, the +1.5 for San Francisco provides structur...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 6 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% Houston Astros

Given the Astros' superior overall record and recent performance, they are likely to cover the -1 spread in this matchup against the Giants.

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 51% Giants_ -1.5

Game is in 2026 so all analysis uses training data through 2025-09. Home run-line value appears at Oracle Park where Giants pitching staff h...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 52% San Francisco Giants +1.5

While the Astros are favored for the win, securing a victory by more than one run (covering -1.5) can be challenging, especially on the road...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 53% Houston Astros

Given the slight edge in the starting pitcher matchup and the Astros' generally stronger offense, they are favored to cover a slim spread. W...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
3 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 28% Houston Astros -1.5

The game is expected to be close, so winning by two or more runs is less likely. The Giants at home will likely keep the margin tight. There...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Model confidence

Conviction in pick · Match winner
GPT-5 Mini

GPT-5 Mini

Houston Astros

63
GPT-4o Mini

GPT-4o Mini

Houston Astros

60
Claude Haiku 4.5

Claude Haiku 4.5

Houston Astros

58
Gemini 2.5 Flash

Gemini 2.5 Flash

Houston Astros

56
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Houston Astros

55
Grok 4 Fast

Grok 4 Fast

Giants

52
DeepSeek V3

DeepSeek V3

Houston Astros

52

Model track records

Lifetime

Every graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.

GPT-5
GPT-5 145–91 · 61%
+67.5u
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.8 154–115 · 57%
-17.4u
GPT-4o Mini
GPT-4o Mini 1056–802 · 57%
-605.9u
GPT-5 Mini
GPT-5 Mini 692–586 · 54%
-365.1u
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro 130–112 · 54%
+111.8u
o4-mini
o4-mini 90–78 · 54%
+69.7u
Claude Opus 4.6
Claude Opus 4.6 193–173 · 53%
-47.6u
Grok 4.3
Grok 4.3 132–124 · 52%
+93.6u
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7 183–176 · 51%
-63.5u
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash 1130–1110 · 50%
-924.7u
Grok 4 Fast
Grok 4 Fast 741–743 · 50%
-501.5u
DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3 1039–1061 · 49%
-752.4u
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Claude Sonnet 4.6 459–482 · 49%
-323.7u
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 876–930 · 49%
-728.8u
Claude Haiku 4.5
Claude Haiku 4.5 1018–1093 · 48%
-930.0u
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro 151–179 · 46%
-73.8u

Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.

Refresh the read

Early read

Re-run the AIs closer to kickoff and watch the read evolve. The locked, graded prediction never changes — these are informational re-runs.

Lineups change everything — Pro re-runs the AIs after they drop.

Confirmed XIs, late injuries and line moves land in the final hour. Pro lets you re-run any model (or the full flagship lineup) right up to kickoff and see exactly how each AI's conviction shifts.

Unlock with Pro Create a free account

Pro on-demand

Request an AI audit

Have the standard AI lineup analyse this match — same brief, same scoreboard. Predictions appear publicly once the run finishes.

Sign in and upgrade to Pro to request audits on any future match.

Sign in See Pro

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: fa748c4a8e487ad6…
Kickoff
Tue, Aug 11 · 01:45 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 22191,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": "Oracle Park",
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-08-11T01:45:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Tue, 11 Aug 2026 01:45:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Houston Astros",
        "home": "San Francisco Giants"
    },
    "version": "v2",
    "sport_focus": [
        "The starting-pitcher matchup is the single biggest factor — compare each starter's recent form, not just season ERA.",
        "Bullpen rest and usage over the last few days drives late-game and total outcomes.",
        "Ballpark factors matter: dimensions, altitude (e.g. Coors), and especially wind direction (out = more runs, in = fewer).",
        "Lineup handedness vs the opposing starter (L/R platoon splits) shifts the run expectation.",
        "Weather (wind, temperature, humidity) measurably affects carry and totals."
    ],
    "team_context": {
        "note": "Reference data from our settled-results database. Verify + extend it with your own research; it is not a substitute for current team news.",
        "away_form": {
            "last": "LWLWW",
            "record": "3W-0D-2L",
            "scored": 31,
            "matches": 5,
            "conceded": 31
        },
        "home_form": {
            "last": "LLWLW",
            "record": "2W-0D-3L",
            "scored": 25,
            "matches": 5,
            "conceded": 31
        },
        "rest_days": {
            "away": 33,
            "home": 33
        }
    },
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro

Results settle automatically once the final score lands. Picks are permanent — no hindsight edits.

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

Share
Share X Reddit WhatsApp Telegram Facebook

Get the AI consensus before kickoff

Free. Pre-match alert per AI + see your picks graded as results land.

Sign up free →