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MLB Major League Baseball · Oracle Park
Upcoming · in 90h 14m
San Francisco Giants logo

San Francisco GiantsvsDetroit Tigers

Detroit Tigers logo
Chat with the AIs Ask why they picked — live
Kickoff Locked 28picks AIs split

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AI predictions

Ask the AIs

Who picked what

16 models × 5 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Match winner

Consensus
Detroit Tigers 4/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 58% Detroit Tigers

Detroit enters with strong recent form (4W-1L in last 5) and a +9 run differential, while San Francisco is struggling at 2W-3L with a -6 run...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 58% Detroit Tigers

Probable-starter edge favors Detroit: Keider Montero has been the steadier starter in 2026 (sub-3.5 ERA in recent checks) while Landen Roupp...

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🔍 researched 7 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 65% San Francisco Giants

The San Francisco Giants have a strong home advantage at Oracle Park, with a history of favorable performance. The Detroit Tigers have strug...

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🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 52% Detroit Tigers

Detroit enters with superior recent form (4-1) and better run differential than San Francisco (2-3). Oracle Park suppresses scoring but Tige...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 62% Detroit Tigers

Based on the provided recent form, the Detroit Tigers are significantly hotter with a 4-1 record compared to the San Francisco Giants' 2-3 r...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% San Francisco Giants

The Giants are playing at home in Oracle Park, which typically favors pitchers. While both teams have had mixed recent results, the Giants'...

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4 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 62% San Francisco Giants

Training data through 2025-09: Giants have home-field advantage at Oracle Park, and their recent form, though inconsistent, shows they can s...

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Over / Under

Consensus
under 3/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 55% Under 8.5

Both teams average exactly 5.0 runs per game over their last 5 matches (25 each), suggesting a combined run environment around 10 runs total...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 62% under

Oracle Park is one of MLB's most pitcher-friendly venues in 2026 and suppresses home runs and run totals. Both probable starters profile as...

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🔍 researched 7 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% over

Both teams have shown offensive capabilities in recent games, and the weather forecast suggests conditions favorable for scoring, leading to...

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🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 55% under

Oracle Park is a strong pitcher-friendly venue that typically keeps totals low. Both teams show moderate recent scoring but Giants bullpen f...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 58% Over 8.5

The Detroit Tigers scored 25 runs and conceded 16 in their last 5 games, while the San Francisco Giants scored 25 and conceded 31. This indi...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 60% under

Oracle Park is known for being a pitcher-friendly venue, especially with potential wind patterns that can limit ball carry. Both teams' rece...

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4 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 75% Over 2.5

Training data through 2025-09: Both teams have been putting up decent run totals recently, with Tigers scoring 25 in last 5 and Giants 25 as...

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Spread

Consensus
Detroit Tigers -1.5 2/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 52% Detroit Tigers -1.5

Detroit's form advantage (4-1 record, +9 run differential) and superior pitching (16 runs allowed vs Giants' 31) support a modest road victo...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 62% San Francisco Giants +1.5

Given the ML edge to Detroit but a pitcher-friendly venue and the small margins typical at Oracle Park, backing the home team with a +1.5 ru...

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🔍 researched 7 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% San Francisco Giants

Given the Giants' home advantage and the Tigers' road struggles, the Giants are likely to cover the -1 spread, though the game could be comp...

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🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 51% Detroit Tigers

Tigers' recent wins and better run differential give them a slight edge on the run line despite the venue. Giants home struggles in the last...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% Detroit Tigers -1.5

Given the Detroit Tigers' superior recent form (4 wins in 5 games) and the San Francisco Giants' struggles, especially in conceding runs, th...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 52% Detroit Tigers

While the Giants are favored at home, the Tigers' recent form, despite being mixed, shows they can score runs. The spread is tight, and the...

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4 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 45% San Francisco Giants -1.5

Training data through 2025-09: Giants Win by more than 1 run is plausible at home, but Tigers have been competitive and have solid pitching....

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First 5 innings

Consensus
Detroit Tigers 2/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 54% Under 4.5

First-five-inning totals are typically compressed relative to full-game totals. Both teams' recent output (5.0 runs per game, or ~2.5 per te...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% San Francisco Giants

The Giants' starting pitcher has been effective in the early innings, and their home field advantage may lead them to a lead after the first...

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🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 50% Detroit Tigers

Starting pitching matchup favors Detroit in the early innings at a park that limits home offense. Tigers 4-1 form suggests they can grab an...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 58% Detroit Tigers

The first five innings are heavily influenced by starting pitchers, which are unknown for this 2026 game. However, based on the overall team...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 65% under

The early innings are often dictated by the starting pitchers. Given Oracle Park's dimensions and the general tendency for games to start sl...

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4 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% San Francisco Giants

Training data through 2025-09: Home teams tend to have an edge in the first five innings due to last at-bat advantage and familiarity. Giant...

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First five innings 3.5

Consensus
under 1/1
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 —
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 66% under

First-five innings isolate the starters: Roupp's inning-split data shows strong first-inning results and Montero has routinely produced qual...

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🔍 researched 7 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini —
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast —
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash —
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite —
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 —

Model confidence

Conviction in pick · Match winner
GPT-4o Mini

GPT-4o Mini

San Francisco Giants

65
Gemini 2.5 Flash

Gemini 2.5 Flash

Detroit Tigers

62
DeepSeek V3

DeepSeek V3

San Francisco Giants

62
Claude Haiku 4.5

Claude Haiku 4.5

Detroit Tigers

58
GPT-5 Mini

GPT-5 Mini

Detroit Tigers

58
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

San Francisco Giants

55
Grok 4 Fast

Grok 4 Fast

Detroit Tigers

52

Model track records

Lifetime

Every graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.

GPT-5
GPT-5 145–91 · 61%
+67.5u
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.8 154–115 · 57%
-17.4u
GPT-4o Mini
GPT-4o Mini 1056–802 · 57%
-605.9u
GPT-5 Mini
GPT-5 Mini 692–586 · 54%
-365.1u
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro 130–112 · 54%
+111.8u
o4-mini
o4-mini 90–78 · 54%
+69.7u
Claude Opus 4.6
Claude Opus 4.6 193–173 · 53%
-47.6u
Grok 4.3
Grok 4.3 132–124 · 52%
+93.6u
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7 183–176 · 51%
-63.5u
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash 1130–1110 · 50%
-924.7u
Grok 4 Fast
Grok 4 Fast 741–743 · 50%
-501.5u
DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3 1032–1055 · 49%
-746.4u
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Claude Sonnet 4.6 459–482 · 49%
-323.7u
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 876–930 · 49%
-728.8u
Claude Haiku 4.5
Claude Haiku 4.5 1018–1093 · 48%
-930.0u
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro 151–179 · 46%
-73.8u

Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.

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Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: 7dc68caea4e9298c…
Kickoff
Sat, Aug 8 · 02:15 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 21182,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": "Oracle Park",
        "league": "Major League Baseball",
        "starts_at": "2026-08-08T02:15:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Sat, 08 Aug 2026 02:15:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Detroit Tigers",
        "home": "San Francisco Giants"
    },
    "version": "v2",
    "sport_focus": [
        "The starting-pitcher matchup is the single biggest factor — compare each starter's recent form, not just season ERA.",
        "Bullpen rest and usage over the last few days drives late-game and total outcomes.",
        "Ballpark factors matter: dimensions, altitude (e.g. Coors), and especially wind direction (out = more runs, in = fewer).",
        "Lineup handedness vs the opposing starter (L/R platoon splits) shifts the run expectation.",
        "Weather (wind, temperature, humidity) measurably affects carry and totals."
    ],
    "team_context": {
        "note": "Reference data from our settled-results database. Verify + extend it with your own research; it is not a substitute for current team news.",
        "away_form": {
            "last": "WWWWL",
            "record": "4W-0D-1L",
            "scored": 25,
            "matches": 5,
            "conceded": 16
        },
        "home_form": {
            "last": "LLWLW",
            "record": "2W-0D-3L",
            "scored": 25,
            "matches": 5,
            "conceded": 31
        },
        "rest_days": {
            "away": 30,
            "home": 30
        }
    },
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro

Results settle automatically once the final score lands. Picks are permanent — no hindsight edits.

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

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