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MLB Oracle Park
Upcoming · in 89h 18m
San Francisco Giants logo

San Francisco GiantsvsCincinnati Reds

Cincinnati Reds logo
Chat with the AIs Ask why they picked — live
Kickoff Locked 28picks

Your call

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AI predictions

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Who picked what

16 models × 7 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Spread

Consensus
Cincinnati Reds 3/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 55% San Francisco Giants -1.5

The Giants' home-field advantage at Oracle Park, combined with their slightly better recent scoring (25 vs 20 in 5 games) and the ballpark's...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 55% Cincinnati Reds

With Chase Burns projected in the Reds' rotation and Oracle Park's typical run-suppressing wind, the Reds have a reasonable shot to win by m...

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🔍 researched 6 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Cincinnati Reds

The Reds have demonstrated a slight edge in recent form and have a favorable head-to-head record against the Giants. This suggests they are...

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🔍 researched 1 source cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 51% home_ -1.5

Home field plus park factors give Giants a modest edge on the run line. Recent scoring trends are close but venue tilts the probability slig...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 52% Cincinnati Reds +1.5

Given the lack of specific team news, lineups, or starting pitchers for this future event, betting on the underdog to keep the game close (w...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 53% Cincinnati Reds

While the Giants are favored to win, the Cincinnati Reds' recent struggles haven't always resulted in blowout losses. Given the relatively c...

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3 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 50% San Francisco Giants -1.5

The Giants are slight favorites at home, but their winning margin is likely narrow given the Reds' competitiveness. In a low-scoring game, t...

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First 5 innings

Consensus
San Francisco Giants 1/4
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 60% Under 4.5

The first five innings typically feature the best pitching (both starters at their freshest) and the least offensive rhythm, especially in p...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Cincinnati Reds

The Reds have shown a slight edge in recent form and have a favorable head-to-head record against the Giants. These factors suggest they are...

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🔍 researched 1 source cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 53% San Francisco Giants

Early-game edge usually follows the home starter in Oracle Park. Form data is limited and neutral so the park and home status provide the le...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash —
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite —
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Over 4.5

Starting pitchers for both teams are prone to allowing early runs, and the offenses have been productive in first five frames. In August, wa...

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Match winner

Consensus
San Francisco Giants 5/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 58% San Francisco Giants

Both teams are in identical form (2-3 over last 5 games), but the Giants enjoy a significant home-field advantage at Oracle Park, a pitcher-...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 58% Cincinnati Reds

The Reds arrive with an announced top-rotation arm in Chase Burns (listed on MLB probables) and Burns has been excellent this season; the Gi...

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🔍 researched 6 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Cincinnati Reds

The Cincinnati Reds have shown a slight edge in recent form, with a 2-0-3 record in their last five matches, compared to the San Francisco G...

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🔍 researched 1 source cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 54% San Francisco Giants

Oracle Park suppresses offense and favors the home side. Both teams enter with identical 2-3 records in last 5 but Giants scored more overal...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% San Francisco Giants

As this game is scheduled far in the future (2026-08-25), specific current data like starting pitchers or injuries is unavailable. Based on...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 58% San Francisco Giants

The San Francisco Giants have a slight edge due to their home-field advantage at Oracle Park and a more stable pitching staff compared to th...

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3 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% San Francisco Giants

Based on training data through 2025-09, the Giants have a slight home-field advantage at Oracle Park, and their lineup is more powerful agai...

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Over / Under

Consensus
under 2/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 62% Under 8.5

Oracle Park's pitcher-friendly design and cool maritime climate historically depress run totals. Over the last 5 games, the Giants averaged...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 62% under

Oracle Park historically suppresses home runs and overall run-scoring when onshore (WSW/W winds) are present; forecasts show onshore winds a...

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🔍 researched 6 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% over

Both teams have been involved in high-scoring games recently, with the Reds averaging 4 runs scored and 4.4 runs conceded per game, and the...

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🔍 researched 1 source cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 52% under

Oracle Park is a strong pitcher's park. Both offenses have been leaky recently but the venue and unknown 2026 pitching staffs point to a low...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 58% Under 7.5

With the game scheduled for 2026-08-25, specific real-time data is absent. However, Oracle Park is historically known as a pitcher-friendly...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% over

While Oracle Park can be pitcher-friendly, the predicted clear skies and low 70s temperatures with light winds create favorable hitting cond...

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3 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 52% Over 8.5

The Giants and Reds both have shown recent offensive output averaging around 4-5 runs per game, and the expected starting pitchers are middl...

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First five innings over 4.5

Consensus
over 1/1
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 —
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini —
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast —
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash —
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 56% over

The starting pitchers for both teams have shown inconsistencies this season. Coupled with the favorable hitting weather at Oracle Park and t...

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3 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 —

First five innings totals 4.5

Consensus
Under 4.5 1/1
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 —
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini —
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast —
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 57% Under 4.5

Extending the full-game logic, Oracle Park's inherent characteristics as a pitcher-friendly venue are particularly impactful in the early in...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite —
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 —

First five innings h2h

Consensus
Cincinnati Reds 1/1
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 —
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 60% Cincinnati Reds

First-five innings strongly favor the team with the better starter; Chase Burns (listed on MLB probables) has produced many quality starts t...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 6 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini —
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast —
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash —
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite —
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 —

Model confidence

Conviction in pick · Match winner
Claude Haiku 4.5

Claude Haiku 4.5

San Francisco Giants

58
GPT-5 Mini

GPT-5 Mini

Cincinnati Reds

58
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

San Francisco Giants

58
GPT-4o Mini

GPT-4o Mini

Cincinnati Reds

55
Gemini 2.5 Flash

Gemini 2.5 Flash

San Francisco Giants

55
DeepSeek V3

DeepSeek V3

San Francisco Giants

55
Grok 4 Fast

Grok 4 Fast

San Francisco Giants

54

Model track records

Lifetime

Every graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.

GPT-5
GPT-5 145–91 · 61%
+67.5u
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.8 154–115 · 57%
-17.4u
GPT-4o Mini
GPT-4o Mini 1151–929 · 55%
-732.9u
GPT-5 Mini
GPT-5 Mini 694–590 · 54%
-369.1u
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro 130–112 · 54%
+111.8u
o4-mini
o4-mini 90–78 · 54%
+69.7u
Claude Opus 4.6
Claude Opus 4.6 193–173 · 53%
-47.6u
Grok 4.3
Grok 4.3 132–124 · 52%
+93.6u
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7 183–176 · 51%
-63.5u
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash 1228–1245 · 50%
-1,059.7u
Grok 4 Fast
Grok 4 Fast 851–876 · 49%
-634.5u
DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3 1225–1281 · 49%
-972.4u
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Claude Sonnet 4.6 459–482 · 49%
-323.7u
Claude Haiku 4.5
Claude Haiku 4.5 1018–1093 · 48%
-930.0u
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 977–1065 · 48%
-863.8u
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro 151–179 · 46%
-73.8u

Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.

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Early read

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Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: 17c1b91b1d0e8c76…
Kickoff
Tue, Aug 25 · 01:45 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 28401,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": "Oracle Park",
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-08-25T01:45:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Tue, 25 Aug 2026 01:45:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Cincinnati Reds",
        "home": "San Francisco Giants"
    },
    "version": "v2",
    "sport_focus": [
        "The starting-pitcher matchup is the single biggest factor — compare each starter's recent form, not just season ERA.",
        "Bullpen rest and usage over the last few days drives late-game and total outcomes.",
        "Ballpark factors matter: dimensions, altitude (e.g. Coors), and especially wind direction (out = more runs, in = fewer).",
        "Lineup handedness vs the opposing starter (L/R platoon splits) shifts the run expectation.",
        "Weather (wind, temperature, humidity) measurably affects carry and totals."
    ],
    "team_context": {
        "note": "Reference data from our settled-results database. Verify + extend it with your own research; it is not a substitute for current team news.",
        "away_form": {
            "last": "WLWLL",
            "record": "2W-0D-3L",
            "scored": 20,
            "matches": 5,
            "conceded": 22
        },
        "home_form": {
            "last": "LLWLW",
            "record": "2W-0D-3L",
            "scored": 25,
            "matches": 5,
            "conceded": 31
        },
        "rest_days": {
            "away": 47,
            "home": 47
        }
    },
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro

Results settle automatically once the final score lands. Picks are permanent — no hindsight edits.

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

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