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MLB
Final 5–1
San Francisco Giants logo

San Francisco GiantsvsChicago Cubs

Chicago Cubs logo
Chat with the AIs Ask why they picked — live
Final5–1 Locked 41picks · 26 graded AIs split
Recap Consensus called it

San Francisco Giants 5–1 Chicago Cubs

4 of 7 AIs leaned San Francisco Giants — and reality agreed.

AI lean
San Francisco Giants 4/7
Correct calls
4/7
Final
5–1

Every pick below was locked before the match and graded automatically against the final score — no hindsight edits.

AI predictions

Ask the AIs

Who picked what

16 models × 5 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Over / Under

Consensus
Over 8.5 3/14
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 52% Over 8.5 L

Early June baseball typically features warmer weather and more favorable offensive conditions. Both the Giants and Cubs have capable offensi...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% under W

The over/under for this game is set at 8 runs. Given the strong pitching performances expected from both teams—Logan Webb (3.88 ERA) for the...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 51% over

Both lineups historically produce average run totals near 8.5-9.0 in June games. Outdoor venue factors and bullpen usage lean slightly towar...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 52% Over 8.0 L

With no specific pitching matchup or lineup information available for June 2026, predicting game totals is speculative. However, the average...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 60% over L

Both teams have offenses that have shown the ability to score runs in recent games, and their respective pitching staffs can be inconsistent...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 52% Over 8.5

Both teams have average pitching and capable lineups. Giants' park plays neutral to slight hitter-friendly. Expected total around 8-9 runs,...

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Spread

Consensus
Chicago Cubs 3/12
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 54% Chicago Cubs -1 L

The Cubs' marginal h2h advantage translates to a slight run-line edge, reflecting their deeper offensive depth and recent competitive positi...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Chicago Cubs L

The Cubs are underdogs at +1.5 on the run line, suggesting they are expected to keep the game close. ([sportsgrid.com](https://www.sportsgri...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 52% Chicago Cubs

Spread value favors the Cubs given their road performance trends in training data. Home team run differential has been inconsistent lately....

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 51% San Francisco Giants -1.5 W

This prediction is made using my training data up to late 2025, without specific real-time 2026 information. If the Giants are to win at hom...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 52% Chicago Cubs L

While the moneyline indicates a close game, the Chicago Cubs' projected run differential suggests they have a slightly better chance of cove...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 40% San Francisco Giants -1.5 W

Giants are slight favorites but winning by 2+ is not reliable given Cubs' ability to keep games close. Spread favors the underdog in a tight...

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Match winner

Consensus
San Francisco Giants 4/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 55% Chicago Cubs L

Based on training knowledge through mid-2026, the Cubs have maintained stronger offensive consistency and depth than the Giants in recent se...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% San Francisco Giants W

The San Francisco Giants have a slight edge in this matchup, with a 57% chance of winning, according to a model projection. ([sportsgrid.com...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 53% Chicago Cubs L

Cubs have shown stronger overall roster depth in recent seasons per training data through 2025-09. Giants home edge is modest without curren...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 53% San Francisco Giants W

This prediction is based on general historical team performance and knowledge from my training data through late 2025, as I lack real-time a...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% Chicago Cubs L

Without access to live data, I'm relying on general baseball knowledge. The Chicago Cubs have historically performed well against the San Fr...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% San Francisco Giants W

Giants have a slight home-field advantage and a more consistent rotation. Cubs' offense has been streaky, but they have the bats to compete....

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First 5 innings

Consensus
San Francisco Giants 3/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 51% Under 4.5

Early-inning run totals in baseball tend toward lower totals due to teams settling into their at-bats and pitchers establishing rhythm. With...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% San Francisco Giants

The Giants are projected to have a slight edge in the first five innings, with a 57% chance of winning, according to a model projection. ([s...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 51% Chicago Cubs

Early game starters often give slight edge to the away side in this matchup per historical splits. First-five scoring tends to mirror full-g...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 52% San Francisco Giants

Drawing from my training data through late 2025, the first five innings heavily rely on starting pitching and early offensive execution. The...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% Chicago Cubs

The early game performance is often dictated by starting pitchers and offensive momentum. My general knowledge suggests the Cubs might start...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 53% San Francisco Giants

Giants typically have a stronger starting pitching performance early. Cubs' bullpen is deeper but starters have been inconsistent. Slight ed...

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First five innings h2h

Consensus
San Francisco Giants 1/1
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 —
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini —
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast —
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 39% San Francisco Giants

The first five innings often showcase the starting pitchers, which for the Giants at home in Oracle Park could provide an early advantage. A...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite —
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 —

Model confidence

Conviction in pick · Match winner
GPT-4o Mini

GPT-4o Mini

San Francisco Giants

60
Claude Haiku 4.5

Claude Haiku 4.5

Chicago Cubs

55
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Chicago Cubs

55
DeepSeek V3

DeepSeek V3

San Francisco Giants

55
Grok 4 Fast

Grok 4 Fast

Chicago Cubs

53
Gemini 2.5 Flash

Gemini 2.5 Flash

San Francisco Giants

53
Claude Sonnet 4.6

Claude Sonnet 4.6

San Francisco Giants

52

Model track records

Lifetime

Every graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.

GPT-5
GPT-5 145–91 · 61%
+67.5u
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.8 154–115 · 57%
-17.4u
GPT-4o Mini
GPT-4o Mini 1056–799 · 57%
-602.9u
GPT-5 Mini
GPT-5 Mini 690–586 · 54%
-365.1u
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro 130–112 · 54%
+111.8u
o4-mini
o4-mini 90–78 · 54%
+69.7u
Claude Opus 4.6
Claude Opus 4.6 193–173 · 53%
-47.6u
Grok 4.3
Grok 4.3 132–124 · 52%
+93.6u
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7 183–176 · 51%
-63.5u
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash 1128–1109 · 50%
-923.7u
Grok 4 Fast
Grok 4 Fast 740–743 · 50%
-501.5u
DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3 1031–1055 · 49%
-746.4u
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Claude Sonnet 4.6 459–482 · 49%
-323.7u
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 876–927 · 49%
-725.8u
Claude Haiku 4.5
Claude Haiku 4.5 1017–1091 · 48%
-928.0u
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro 151–179 · 46%
-73.8u

Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: 034805c4f7698310…
Kickoff
Sun, Jun 14 · 19:10 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 2704,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-06-14T02:05:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Sun, 14 Jun 2026 02:05:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Chicago Cubs",
        "home": "San Francisco Giants"
    },
    "version": "v1",
    "built_at": "2026-06-13T06:25:20+00:00",
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro
  • Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini
    4 tool calls · 4 sources

    4 citations captured — unlock with Pro

  • Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

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