San Francisco Giants vs Chicago Cubs

Final: 1 – 5

Picks locked at Jun 12 · 02:37 GMT+0000 24 picks recorded · 7 graded

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified


                    hash:
                    664353fa48716467…

Sport: Sat, Jun 13 · 02:15 GMT+0000
Markets: h2h · totals · spreads · first_five_innings
Source: The Odds API · live
Research: AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 2617,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-06-13T02:15:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Sat, 13 Jun 2026 02:15:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Chicago Cubs",
        "home": "San Francisco Giants"
    },
    "version": "v1",
    "built_at": "2026-06-12T02:37:44+00:00",
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

AI predictions

4 markets · 6 models picked

Who picked what

15 models × 4 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Unlock flagship models

Model	Match winner ?	Over / Under ?	Spread ?	First 5 innings ?
Claude Opus 4.7 Flagship Anthropic · 4-5 -1.2u	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Flagship Anthropic · 5-5 -0.3u	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Opus 4 Flagship Anthropic	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Flagship Anthropic · 125-128 -87.1u	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Anthropic · 168-149 -107.9u	58% San Francisco Giants L	54% Over 8.5 V	55% Giants -1.5 V	52% Under 4.5 runs (first five innings) V
Match winner ? 58% San Francisco Giants As of my training knowledge (through September 2025), the Giants have been competitive in the NL West and typically field stronger rotation... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 54% Over 8.5 June baseball typically sees elevated run production as weather warms and pitchers have not accumulated fatigue. Giants and Cubs both have o... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 55% Giants -1.5 Home-field advantage and the Giants' generally stronger recent organizational performance support a small spread edge. This is a low-confide... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 52% Under 4.5 runs (first five innings) Early-inning baseball tends to be lower-scoring as starters are fresh and breaking balls are sharp. Without knowing the specific pitchers as... Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 Flagship Openai	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
GPT-5 Mini Openai · 30-17 +24.4u	—	—	—	—
Match winner ? No pick on this market. Over / Under ? No pick on this market. Spread ? No pick on this market. First 5 innings ? No pick on this market.
GPT-4o Mini Openai · 34-47 -25.2u	—	—	—	—
Match winner ? No pick on this market. Over / Under ? No pick on this market. Spread ? No pick on this market. First 5 innings ? No pick on this market.
o3 Flagship Openai	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Grok 4 Heavy Flagship Xai	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Grok 4 Fast Xai · 112-170 -91.3u	51% San Francisco Giants L	50% over V	50% San Francisco Giants V	50% San Francisco Giants V
Match winner ? 51% San Francisco Giants Training data through 2023 shows Giants and Cubs as comparable mid-tier clubs with home edge for San Francisco in neutral conditions. 2026 t... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 50% over Historical scoring averages for both clubs sit near league norms with no extreme pitching edges known from training data. 2026 date renders... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 50% San Francisco Giants Without 2026 lineups or recent form, spread outcome reverts to baseline home probability near 50 percent. Training knowledge offers no actio... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 50% San Francisco Giants First-five results historically track full-game home edge for Giants but 2026 starting pitchers unknown. Training data provides no current r... Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Flagship Google · 4-7 -1.8u	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Google · 135-151 -121.4u	53% San Francisco Giants L	52% Over 8.5 L	55% Chicago Cubs +1.5 V	40% San Francisco Giants Win F5 V
Match winner ? 53% San Francisco Giants Based on my training data through 2025, the San Francisco Giants generally perform well at home against competitive teams. Without specific... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 52% Over 8.5 With no specific pitching matchups or weather data for this 2026 game, I'm relying on general MLB scoring trends from my training data, whic... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 55% Chicago Cubs +1.5 Even if the Giants are favored to win outright, baseball games are frequently decided by one run, making the +1.5 run line a strong play for... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 40% San Francisco Giants Win F5 Assuming the Giants' starting pitching strength, combined with their home-field advantage, would allow them to establish an early lead. Hist... Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Google · 65-141 -96.1u	55% San Francisco Giants L	52% over V	53% home_1.5 V	54% San Francisco Giants V
Match winner ? 55% San Francisco Giants Based on my training data, the San Francisco Giants historically perform well at home against the Chicago Cubs. While specific recent form a... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 52% over The requested total runs line is not specified, so I will assume a standard line around 8.5. Both teams have shown moderate offensive capabi... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 53% home_1.5 Given the assumed home team advantage for the Giants, and without specific run line information, I predict they will keep the game within 1.... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 54% San Francisco Giants The San Francisco Giants often start strong at home, especially in interleague play where home-field advantage can be more pronounced. Witho... Unlock reasoning · Pro
DeepSeek V3 Deepseek · 136-147 -106.2u	54% San Francisco Giants L	55% over V	30% home -1.5 V	55% San Francisco Giants V
Match winner ? 54% San Francisco Giants Based on my training data through mid-2025, the Giants have a strong home record and typically perform well at Oracle Park, while the Cubs h... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 55% over Both teams have shown average offensive production, and Oracle Park is not a pitcher's park. With no weather concerns reported in my trainin... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 30% home -1.5 The Giants' home advantage may not be enough to cover a 1.5-run spread, especially given the Cubs' ability to keep games close. With no spec... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 55% San Francisco Giants Early innings often favor the home team due to familiarity with the park and momentum. The Giants have a solid starting rotation, and the Cu... Unlock reasoning · Pro
Consensus	San Francisco Giants 5/6	over 3/6	San Francisco Giants 1/6	San Francisco Giants 3/6

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