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MLB
Final 1–5
San Francisco Giants logo

San Francisco GiantsvsChicago Cubs

Chicago Cubs logo
Chat with the AIs Ask why they picked — live
Final1–5 Locked 32picks · 18 graded
Recap Consensus missed

San Francisco Giants 1–5 Chicago Cubs

5 of 6 AIs leaned San Francisco Giants — reality had other ideas.

AI lean
San Francisco Giants 5/6
Correct calls
1/6
Final
1–5

Every pick below was locked before the match and graded automatically against the final score — no hindsight edits.

AI predictions

Ask the AIs

Who picked what

16 models × 4 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Match winner

Consensus
San Francisco Giants 5/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 58% San Francisco Giants L

As of my training knowledge (through September 2025), the Giants have been competitive in the NL West and typically field stronger rotation...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini —
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 51% San Francisco Giants L

Training data through 2023 shows Giants and Cubs as comparable mid-tier clubs with home edge for San Francisco in neutral conditions. 2026 t...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 53% San Francisco Giants L

Based on my training data through 2025, the San Francisco Giants generally perform well at home against competitive teams. Without specific...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% San Francisco Giants L

Based on my training data, the San Francisco Giants historically perform well at home against the Chicago Cubs. While specific recent form a...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 54% San Francisco Giants L

Based on my training data through mid-2025, the Giants have a strong home record and typically perform well at Oracle Park, while the Cubs h...

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Over / Under

Consensus
over 3/10
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 54% Over 8.5

June baseball typically sees elevated run production as weather warms and pitchers have not accumulated fatigue. Giants and Cubs both have o...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini —
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 50% over

Historical scoring averages for both clubs sit near league norms with no extreme pitching edges known from training data. 2026 date renders...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 52% Over 8.5 L

With no specific pitching matchups or weather data for this 2026 game, I'm relying on general MLB scoring trends from my training data, whic...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 52% over

The requested total runs line is not specified, so I will assume a standard line around 8.5. Both teams have shown moderate offensive capabi...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% over

Both teams have shown average offensive production, and Oracle Park is not a pitcher's park. With no weather concerns reported in my trainin...

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Spread

Consensus
Chicago Cubs +1.5 3/10
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 52% San Francisco Giants -1.5 L

The -1.5 spread for the Giants is priced consistently in the 2.54–2.78 range, implying ~37% probability, while Cubs +1.5 sits at 1.48–1.50 (...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini —
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 50% San Francisco Giants

Without 2026 lineups or recent form, spread outcome reverts to baseline home probability near 50 percent. Training knowledge offers no actio...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% Chicago Cubs +1.5 W

Even if the Giants are favored to win outright, baseball games are frequently decided by one run, making the +1.5 run line a strong play for...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 53% home_ 1.5

Given the assumed home team advantage for the Giants, and without specific run line information, I predict they will keep the game within 1....

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 30% San Francisco Giants -1.5 L

The Giants' home advantage may not be enough to cover a 1.5-run spread, especially given the Cubs' ability to keep games close. With no spec...

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First 5 innings

Consensus
San Francisco Giants 3/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 52% Under 4.5 runs (first five innings)

Early-inning baseball tends to be lower-scoring as starters are fresh and breaking balls are sharp. Without knowing the specific pitchers as...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini —
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 50% San Francisco Giants

First-five results historically track full-game home edge for Giants but 2026 starting pitchers unknown. Training data provides no current r...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 40% San Francisco Giants Win F5

Assuming the Giants' starting pitching strength, combined with their home-field advantage, would allow them to establish an early lead. Hist...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 54% San Francisco Giants

The San Francisco Giants often start strong at home, especially in interleague play where home-field advantage can be more pronounced. Witho...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% San Francisco Giants

Early innings often favor the home team due to familiarity with the park and momentum. The Giants have a solid starting rotation, and the Cu...

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Model confidence

Conviction in pick · Match winner
Claude Haiku 4.5

Claude Haiku 4.5

San Francisco Giants

58
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

San Francisco Giants

55
DeepSeek V3

DeepSeek V3

San Francisco Giants

54
Gemini 2.5 Flash

Gemini 2.5 Flash

San Francisco Giants

53
Claude Sonnet 4.6

Claude Sonnet 4.6

Chicago Cubs

52
Grok 4 Fast

Grok 4 Fast

San Francisco Giants

51

Model track records

Lifetime

Every graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.

GPT-5
GPT-5 145–91 · 61%
+67.5u
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.8 154–115 · 57%
-17.4u
GPT-4o Mini
GPT-4o Mini 1056–799 · 57%
-602.9u
GPT-5 Mini
GPT-5 Mini 690–586 · 54%
-365.1u
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro 130–112 · 54%
+111.8u
o4-mini
o4-mini 90–78 · 54%
+69.7u
Claude Opus 4.6
Claude Opus 4.6 193–173 · 53%
-47.6u
Grok 4.3
Grok 4.3 132–124 · 52%
+93.6u
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7 183–176 · 51%
-63.5u
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash 1128–1109 · 50%
-923.7u
Grok 4 Fast
Grok 4 Fast 740–743 · 50%
-501.5u
DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3 1031–1055 · 49%
-746.4u
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Claude Sonnet 4.6 459–482 · 49%
-323.7u
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 876–927 · 49%
-725.8u
Claude Haiku 4.5
Claude Haiku 4.5 1017–1091 · 48%
-928.0u
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro 151–179 · 46%
-73.8u

Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: 664353fa48716467…
Kickoff
Sat, Jun 13 · 02:15 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 2617,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-06-13T02:15:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Sat, 13 Jun 2026 02:15:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Chicago Cubs",
        "home": "San Francisco Giants"
    },
    "version": "v1",
    "built_at": "2026-06-12T02:37:44+00:00",
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

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