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MLB
Final 1–3
San Francisco Giants logo

San Francisco GiantsvsAtlanta Braves

Atlanta Braves logo
Chat with the AIs Ask why they picked — live
Final1–3 Locked 28picks · 18 graded
Recap Consensus called it

San Francisco Giants 1–3 Atlanta Braves

6 of 7 AIs leaned Atlanta Braves — and reality agreed.

AI lean
Atlanta Braves 6/7
Correct calls
6/7
Final
1–3

Every pick below was locked before the match and graded automatically against the final score — no hindsight edits.

AI predictions

Ask the AIs

Who picked what

16 models × 4 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Over / Under

Consensus
over 3/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 58% Over L

Both the Giants and Braves play in relatively hitter-friendly conditions, and this matchup has the potential for offensive fireworks. A Satu...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 55% under W

Oracle Park traditionally suppresses run-scoring (cool, marine air / pitcher-friendly geometry) and both probable starters (López and McDona...

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🔍 researched 6 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 65% over W

Both teams have potent offenses, with the Braves averaging 5.1 runs per game (5th in the league) and the Giants averaging 4.1 runs per game...

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🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 52% over

Typical MLB scoring environments in June favor the over especially with two lineups that can produce runs when facing average pitching. Weat...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 52% Over 8.5 L

Given the Atlanta Braves' potent offense and their ability to put up high run totals, a total of 8.5 runs leans towards the over. While the...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% over

Both teams have solid offenses, and the pitching matchups suggest a game where runs can be scored. While not consistently high-scoring, the...

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3 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 70% over 2.5 W

Both offenses were above average in 2025; starting pitchers are likely mid-rotation given the date. Expect at least 3 runs in a competitive...

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Match winner

Consensus
Atlanta Braves 6/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 55% Atlanta Braves W

The Atlanta Braves have been the stronger franchise in recent seasons with a more consistent winning culture and deeper roster. While the Gi...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 62% Atlanta Braves W

Atlanta is the stronger team overall this season and arrives with a deeper rotation; MLB's probable-pitchers pages list Reynaldo López as At...

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🔍 researched 6 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 75% Atlanta Braves W

The Atlanta Braves have a superior record (46-25) compared to the San Francisco Giants (29-43). The Braves' pitching staff boasts a 3.29 ERA...

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🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 53% Braves L

Atlanta has historically shown stronger overall roster depth and pitching in neutral or road settings against NL West clubs. San Francisco's...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 58% Atlanta Braves W

Based on general team strength and historical performance available in my training data through 2025-09, the Atlanta Braves are consistently...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 60% Atlanta Braves W

The Atlanta Braves have a stronger recent record and are performing better overall this season. They also have a slight edge in head-to-head...

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3 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Atlanta Braves W

Based on training data through mid-2025, the Braves have a stronger lineup and pitching depth. The Giants are at home, which narrows the gap...

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First 5 innings

Consensus
Atlanta Braves 5/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 52% Atlanta Braves

Early-game momentum often favors teams with stronger bullpen depth and disciplined hitting approaches. The Braves' historically balanced off...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 58% Atlanta Braves

First-five (F5) edges to Atlanta because López's veteran command usually keeps runs limited early while Atlanta's lineup (even with Acuña ou...

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🔍 researched 6 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% Atlanta Braves

The Braves' strong offense and pitching staff suggest they will lead after the first five innings. Their away performance further supports t...

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🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 54% Braves

Early-game advantage tends to lean toward the team with the stronger rotation and Braves have maintained that edge in similar interleague ro...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 57% Atlanta Braves F5

The Atlanta Braves tend to start games strong, with their powerful lineup often getting to opposing pitchers early. This pick reflects their...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 58% Atlanta Braves

The Braves have a tendency to start strong and build early leads, which is crucial for the first five innings market. Their lineup is genera...

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3 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 53% Atlanta Braves

Starting pitchers unknown; Braves' lineup is stronger early. Slight edge to Atlanta in first five innings.

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Spread

Consensus
Atlanta Braves -1.5 4/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 51% Atlanta Braves -1.5 W

The Braves' superior roster depth and pitching quality historically give them a slight edge to win by more than one run on the road. However...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 50% Atlanta Braves -1.5 W

The Braves are the superior club and I give them a coin-flip chance to win by 2+ runs given Atlanta's deeper lineup (even without Acuña) and...

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🔍 researched 6 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 70% Atlanta Braves W

The Braves' superior record and pitching staff suggest they are likely to win by at least one run. Their away performance further supports t...

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🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 51% Braves -1.5

Braves possess the higher ceiling offense and starting pitching edge that often covers the run line on the road. Giants have struggled to ke...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% Atlanta Braves -1.5 W

Building on the H2H pick, if the Atlanta Braves win, they often do so by multiple runs, making them a good candidate to cover a -1.5 run lin...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 52% Atlanta Braves W

Given the Braves' slightly superior performance and tendency to win by more than one run, they are marginally favored to cover the -1.5 spre...

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3 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 45% Atlanta Braves -1.5 W

Braves are favored but Giants at home can keep it close. Spread is risky; slight lean to Braves covering due to offensive edge.

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Model confidence

Conviction in pick · Match winner
GPT-4o Mini

GPT-4o Mini

Atlanta Braves

75
GPT-5 Mini

GPT-5 Mini

Atlanta Braves

62
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Atlanta Braves

60
Gemini 2.5 Flash

Gemini 2.5 Flash

Atlanta Braves

58
Claude Haiku 4.5

Claude Haiku 4.5

Atlanta Braves

55
DeepSeek V3

DeepSeek V3

Atlanta Braves

55
Grok 4 Fast

Grok 4 Fast

Braves

53

Model track records

Lifetime

Every graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.

GPT-5
GPT-5 145–91 · 61%
+67.5u
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.8 154–115 · 57%
-17.4u
GPT-4o Mini
GPT-4o Mini 1056–802 · 57%
-605.9u
GPT-5 Mini
GPT-5 Mini 692–586 · 54%
-365.1u
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro 130–112 · 54%
+111.8u
o4-mini
o4-mini 90–78 · 54%
+69.7u
Claude Opus 4.6
Claude Opus 4.6 193–173 · 53%
-47.6u
Grok 4.3
Grok 4.3 132–124 · 52%
+93.6u
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7 183–176 · 51%
-63.5u
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash 1130–1110 · 50%
-924.7u
Grok 4 Fast
Grok 4 Fast 741–743 · 50%
-501.5u
DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3 1039–1061 · 49%
-752.4u
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Claude Sonnet 4.6 459–482 · 49%
-323.7u
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 876–930 · 49%
-728.8u
Claude Haiku 4.5
Claude Haiku 4.5 1018–1093 · 48%
-930.0u
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro 151–179 · 46%
-73.8u

Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: 581dd6add225e8fe…
Kickoff
Sat, Jun 27 · 02:15 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 7008,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-06-27T02:15:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Sat, 27 Jun 2026 02:15:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Atlanta Braves",
        "home": "San Francisco Giants"
    },
    "version": "v1",
    "built_at": "2026-06-23T05:53:04+00:00",
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

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