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MLB
Final 6–9
San Francisco Giants logo

San Francisco GiantsvsAthletics

Athletics logo
Chat with the AIs Ask why they picked — live
Final6–9 Locked 28picks · 18 graded
Recap Consensus missed

San Francisco Giants 6–9 Athletics

All 7 AIs backed San Francisco Giants — reality had other ideas.

AI lean
San Francisco Giants 7/7
Correct calls
0/7
Final
6–9

Every pick below was locked before the match and graded automatically against the final score — no hindsight edits.

AI predictions

Ask the AIs

Who picked what

16 models × 5 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Spread

Consensus
San Francisco Giants -1.5 4/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 55% San Francisco Giants -1.5 L

A -1.5 spread implies the Giants are slight favorites, consistent with home-field advantage and organizational depth. Without 2026 starting...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 52% San Francisco Giants -1.5 L

Giants covering a -1.5 run line is a bit riskier than the moneyline but is supported by SF being the home favorite, the mismatch in probable...

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🔍 researched 6 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% San Francisco Giants L

Given the Giants' home advantage and slightly better recent performance, they are more likely to cover a -1 spread. Their home record is 12-...

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🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 51% San Francisco Giants

Home field plus slight roster edge gives Giants the narrow spread lean. Training data through 2025-09 shows similar divisional games decided...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 58% San Francisco Giants -1.5 L

Given the Giants' general historical advantage in terms of roster depth and financial backing, they are often capable of winning by multiple...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 58% San Francisco Giants L

Given the projected strength advantage for the Giants, they are more likely to win by a margin of 2 or more runs. The Athletics, being the w...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% San Francisco Giants -1.5 L

Giants are favored to win by more than one run given home field and superior lineup. Athletics often lose by multiple runs on the road. The...

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Match winner

Consensus
San Francisco Giants 7/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 58% San Francisco Giants L

The Giants are a more established franchise with stronger recent competitive history than the Athletics, who are in a rebuilding phase. With...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 61% San Francisco Giants L

Probable starters (Landen Roupp for SF vs. Jeffrey Springs for OAK) and the sportsbook market tilt favor the Giants (-137 on Fox), and Oracl...

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🔍 researched 6 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% San Francisco Giants L

The San Francisco Giants have a home advantage at Oracle Park and have shown a slightly better recent performance compared to the Athletics....

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🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 53% San Francisco Giants L

Giants hold home advantage in a matchup against a rebuilding Athletics club. Training data through 2025-09 shows San Francisco typically fav...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 65% San Francisco Giants L

The San Francisco Giants generally maintain a stronger roster and higher payroll, providing a fundamental advantage over the Athletics. Thei...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 65% San Francisco Giants L

The San Francisco Giants are a significantly stronger team than the Athletics in my training data. They possess a better historical record,...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 60% San Francisco Giants L

The Giants have a stronger overall roster and home-field advantage at Oracle Park. The Athletics are in a rebuilding phase and have struggle...

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Over / Under

Consensus
over 4/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 52% Over 8.5 W

MLB games in late June typically see moderate run totals; a line of 8.5 is near the season average. Without access to 2026 pitching matchups...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 55% under L

The posted total (8.5) meets two offsetting factors: both probable starters have given up runs this year, but the forecasted westerly wind a...

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🔍 researched 6 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% over W

Both teams have shown moderate offensive capabilities, with the Athletics averaging 4.4 runs per game and the Giants averaging 4.1 runs per...

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🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 52% over

Both lineups project average or better offense in summer conditions. Training data through 2025-09 indicates Giants-A's games trend slightly...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% Under 8.5 Runs L

While both teams can produce offense, interleague matchups, particularly rivalries, sometimes feature tighter, lower-scoring affairs. Strong...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% over W

MLB games, especially involving teams with differing strengths, tend to have a moderate to high number of runs scored. The historical averag...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% over

Both teams have had inconsistent pitching, and Oracle Park can play neutrally to slightly hitter-friendly depending on conditions. The line...

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First 5 innings

Consensus
San Francisco Giants 5/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 56% San Francisco Giants

Early-inning advantage typically aligns with overall game odds; the Giants' superior roster depth should give them a slight edge in the open...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 58% San Francisco Giants

Early-inning moneyline (first five innings) favors the Giants given Roupp's relatively steadier early-inning splits and Springs' tendency to...

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🔍 researched 6 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% San Francisco Giants

The Giants' home advantage and slightly better recent performance suggest they are more likely to lead after the first five innings. Their h...

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🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 54% San Francisco Giants

Giants projected starter holds a modest historical edge in early innings against Oakland. Training data through 2025-09 supports a small hom...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 57% San Francisco Giants F5

The San Francisco Giants typically field competitive starting rotations and have a more consistent offense in the early innings. Assuming th...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite —
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% San Francisco Giants

Giants' starting pitchers tend to be more effective than Athletics' openers. Home advantage in the early innings supports a Giants lead thro...

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First five innings over 4.5

Consensus
over 1/1
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 —
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini —
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast —
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash —
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 57% over

Games involving the Giants and Athletics have historically shown a tendency to produce runs in the early innings. The initial pitching match...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 —

Model confidence

Conviction in pick · Match winner
Gemini 2.5 Flash

Gemini 2.5 Flash

San Francisco Giants

65
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

San Francisco Giants

65
GPT-5 Mini

GPT-5 Mini

San Francisco Giants

61
DeepSeek V3

DeepSeek V3

San Francisco Giants

60
Claude Haiku 4.5

Claude Haiku 4.5

San Francisco Giants

58
GPT-4o Mini

GPT-4o Mini

San Francisco Giants

55
Grok 4 Fast

Grok 4 Fast

San Francisco Giants

53

Model track records

Lifetime

Every graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.

GPT-5
GPT-5 145–91 · 61%
+67.5u
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.8 154–115 · 57%
-17.4u
GPT-4o Mini
GPT-4o Mini 1056–802 · 57%
-605.9u
GPT-5 Mini
GPT-5 Mini 692–586 · 54%
-365.1u
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro 130–112 · 54%
+111.8u
o4-mini
o4-mini 90–78 · 54%
+69.7u
Claude Opus 4.6
Claude Opus 4.6 193–173 · 53%
-47.6u
Grok 4.3
Grok 4.3 132–124 · 52%
+93.6u
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7 183–176 · 51%
-63.5u
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash 1130–1110 · 50%
-924.7u
Grok 4 Fast
Grok 4 Fast 741–743 · 50%
-501.5u
DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3 1038–1056 · 50%
-747.4u
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Claude Sonnet 4.6 459–482 · 49%
-323.7u
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 876–930 · 49%
-728.8u
Claude Haiku 4.5
Claude Haiku 4.5 1018–1093 · 48%
-930.0u
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro 151–179 · 46%
-73.8u

Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: b306b8b55414b679…
Kickoff
Thu, Jun 25 · 19:45 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 6075,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-06-25T19:45:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Thu, 25 Jun 2026 19:45:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Athletics",
        "home": "San Francisco Giants"
    },
    "version": "v1",
    "built_at": "2026-06-22T05:45:40+00:00",
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

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