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MLB
Final 2–1
San Francisco Giants logo

San Francisco GiantsvsAthletics

Athletics logo
Chat with the AIs Ask why they picked — live
Final2–1 Locked 28picks · 16 graded
Recap Consensus called it

San Francisco Giants 2–1 Athletics

All 7 AIs backed San Francisco Giants — and reality agreed.

AI lean
San Francisco Giants 7/7
Correct calls
7/7
Final
2–1

Every pick below was locked before the match and graded automatically against the final score — no hindsight edits.

AI predictions

Ask the AIs

Who picked what

16 models × 4 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Spread

Consensus
San Francisco Giants 4/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 52% San Francisco Giants L

The Giants hold a modest structural advantage at home but -1.5 is a tight spread that reflects competitive balance. Without current 2026 inj...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 52% San Francisco Giants L

A -1.5 run-line (Giants -1.5) is a modest cover requirement; Roupp's ability to eat quality innings and a home bullpen match-up give the Gia...

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🔍 researched 7 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% San Francisco Giants

The Giants' home advantage and the Athletics' slightly lower away performance suggest the Giants are more likely to cover a -1 spread. ([the...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 51% San Francisco Giants -1.5 L

San Francisco's starters have historically kept games within a run or two against Oakland. The Athletics lineup lacks consistent power to ov...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% San Francisco Giants -1.5 L

Given the general historical edge of the Giants in head-to-head matchups against the Athletics, it's reasonable to expect them to win by mor...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 60% San Francisco Giants L

Given the slight favoritism towards the Giants in the head-to-head market and assuming their typical performance level, they are more likely...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 45% San Francisco Giants -1.5 L

Giants have not been consistent winners by multiple runs. Athletics are competitive in close games. Spread requires a two-run margin which i...

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Over / Under

Consensus
over 4/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 54% Over 8.5

MLB games in late June typically feature full rosters and warmer weather, both conducive to increased run-scoring. The Giants and Athletics...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 55% over L

Book aggregates show an O/U around 8.0; Springs' 5.5 ERA and Roupp's modest HR/BB profile point to the possibility of multiple early runs, a...

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🔍 researched 7 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% over W

Both teams have shown offensive capabilities, with the Athletics averaging 4.4 runs per game and the Giants averaging 4.1 runs per game. Giv...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 52% over

Athletics games have trended slightly over the total in 2025 when facing NL West opponents. Mild summer conditions in the Bay Area usually a...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 52% Over 8.5 L

Without specific pitcher information for this future game, predicting totals is challenging. However, interleague Bay Area games can sometim...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 60% over

Without specific information on starting pitchers, ballpark factors, or recent team offensive/defensive trends, predicting totals is specula...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Over 8.5

Both bullpens are suspect and offenses capable of scoring. Historical averages for these teams suggest total around 9 runs. Pitching matchup...

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First 5 innings

Consensus
San Francisco Giants 6/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 56% Under 4.5

Early-inning scoring is typically suppressed compared to full-game totals due to fewer plate appearances and cooler bats. A typical MLB firs...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 52% San Francisco Giants

First-five innings lean Giants because Roupp typically eats early innings and suppresses big rallies better than Springs has this season; Sp...

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🔍 researched 7 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% San Francisco Giants

The Giants' home-field advantage and the Athletics' away performance suggest the Giants are more likely to lead after the first five innings...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 53% San Francisco Giants

Giants benefit from home-field advantage and familiarity with their own starters in the opening innings. Oakland's early offense has been in...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 58% San Francisco Giants

The first five innings often heavily depend on the starting pitchers. Assuming the Giants, as the historically stronger team, would likely f...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 62% San Francisco Giants

The Giants are expected to start stronger in the early innings due to their general superiority. This prediction is based on the assumption...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 52% San Francisco Giants

Giants often score early at home, but Athletics' starters have been effective early in games. Slight edge to Giants in first five based on h...

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Match winner

Consensus
San Francisco Giants 7/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 58% San Francisco Giants W

The Giants are a playoff-caliber franchise with stronger organizational depth and recent winning history compared to the Athletics, who have...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 58% San Francisco Giants W

Matchup favors the Giants at Oracle Park because Landen Roupp has been the more effective starter relative to Jeffrey Springs this year and...

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🔍 researched 7 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% San Francisco Giants W

The San Francisco Giants have a strong home-field advantage at Oracle Park, with a home record of 12-16. The Athletics have a slightly bette...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 54% San Francisco Giants W

Giants hold a slight edge at home against a rebuilding Athletics club. Training data through 2025 shows San Francisco's pitching staff typic...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 60% San Francisco Giants W

Based on general historical team strength and typical roster construction up to my last training data update, the San Francisco Giants usual...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 65% San Francisco Giants W

Based on training data, the San Francisco Giants generally perform better than the Athletics in head-to-head matchups and overall season per...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% San Francisco Giants W

Giants have strong home record and deeper pitching rotation, but Athletics have shown improvement under new management. Recent head-to-head...

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Model confidence

Conviction in pick · Match winner
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

San Francisco Giants

65
GPT-4o Mini

GPT-4o Mini

San Francisco Giants

60
Gemini 2.5 Flash

Gemini 2.5 Flash

San Francisco Giants

60
Claude Haiku 4.5

Claude Haiku 4.5

San Francisco Giants

58
GPT-5 Mini

GPT-5 Mini

San Francisco Giants

58
DeepSeek V3

DeepSeek V3

San Francisco Giants

55
Grok 4 Fast

Grok 4 Fast

San Francisco Giants

54

Model track records

Lifetime

Every graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.

GPT-5
GPT-5 145–91 · 61%
+67.5u
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.8 154–115 · 57%
-17.4u
GPT-4o Mini
GPT-4o Mini 1056–802 · 57%
-605.9u
GPT-5 Mini
GPT-5 Mini 692–586 · 54%
-365.1u
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro 130–112 · 54%
+111.8u
o4-mini
o4-mini 90–78 · 54%
+69.7u
Claude Opus 4.6
Claude Opus 4.6 193–173 · 53%
-47.6u
Grok 4.3
Grok 4.3 132–124 · 52%
+93.6u
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7 183–176 · 51%
-63.5u
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash 1130–1110 · 50%
-924.7u
Grok 4 Fast
Grok 4 Fast 741–743 · 50%
-501.5u
DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3 1032–1055 · 49%
-746.4u
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Claude Sonnet 4.6 459–482 · 49%
-323.7u
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 876–930 · 49%
-728.8u
Claude Haiku 4.5
Claude Haiku 4.5 1018–1093 · 48%
-930.0u
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro 151–179 · 46%
-73.8u

Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: c3837a2062faa588…
Kickoff
Thu, Jun 25 · 01:45 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 6058,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-06-25T01:45:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Thu, 25 Jun 2026 01:45:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Athletics",
        "home": "San Francisco Giants"
    },
    "version": "v1",
    "built_at": "2026-06-21T05:58:23+00:00",
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

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