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San Diego Padres logo

San Diego PadresvsToronto Blue Jays

Toronto Blue Jays logo
Chat with the AIs Ask why they picked — live
Kickoff Locked 28picks AIs split

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AI predictions

Ask the AIs

Who picked what

16 models × 5 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Over / Under

Consensus
over 2/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 62% Under 8.5

Both teams are in offensive slump: San Diego averaged 3.0 RPG and Toronto 2.4 RPG over the last five matches. Combined, they scored only 27...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 62% under

Given both probable starters are right-handers (Buehler and Yesavage), Petco Park's run-suppressing park factor, and a projected light/moder...

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🔍 researched 6 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% over

Both teams have been scoring at a moderate rate recently, and the game is expected to be competitive, which could lead to a higher total sco...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 52% over

Both lineups have shown power in the provided sample with 27 combined runs over 10 games. Training data through 2025-09 indicates Petco play...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 58% Over 9.5

Both the Blue Jays and Padres have displayed exceptionally poor pitching and defense in their last five games, conceding 28 and 29 runs resp...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 60% under

The starting pitchers, while inconsistent, have the potential to keep runs down. Furthermore, Petco Park is known for being a pitcher-friend...

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3 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 52% Over

Both bullpens have been used heavily recently, and the pitching matchups are not strong enough to guarantee a low-scoring game. The over is...

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Spread

Consensus
Toronto Blue Jays +1.5 2/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 51% Toronto Blue Jays -1.5

Toronto's slight form edge and rest advantage support a narrow road favorite at -1.5 lines. San Diego's weak recent scoring and elevated run...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 62% Toronto Blue Jays +1.5

The moneyline spread (±1.5) is safer to back the Blue Jays (+1.5) even though San Diego is favored outright — Petco's pitcher-friendly natur...

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🔍 researched 6 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Toronto Blue Jays

Given the Blue Jays' slight advantage in overall performance and recent form, they are expected to cover the -1 spread in this matchup.

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 53% San Diego Padres

Home team receives the standard 1.5-run advantage on the spread. Training data through 2025-09 shows Padres cover the spread at home more of...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% San Diego Padres +1.5

While the Blue Jays are given a slight edge for the H2H, both teams are in poor form, and their games have shown high scoring with leaky def...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 52% Toronto Blue Jays

Given the slight edge in the head-to-head prediction and the fact that the Padres have been struggling significantly at home, the Blue Jays...

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3 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 56% Toronto Blue Jays +1.5

The Blue Jays have been competitive despite losses, and the Padres are not winning by large margins. With both teams struggling, taking the...

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First 5 innings

Consensus
San Diego Padres 3/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 59% Under 4.5

First-five totals correlate strongly with early bullpen deployment and starter effectiveness. Both teams' recent run-scoring drought extends...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 50% San Diego Padres

Buehler's experience and ability to work early innings suggests San Diego is likelier to lead after five frames, especially at home in Petco...

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🔍 researched 6 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Toronto Blue Jays

The Blue Jays' starting lineup and recent performance suggest they will have a slight edge in the first five innings of the game.

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 51% San Diego Padres

Early-inning advantage leans home due to park factors and typical starter matchups. Training data through 2025-09 shows Padres starters perf...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 51% Toronto Blue Jays

The first five innings heavily depend on the starting pitcher matchup, which is unknown for a future game. However, based on the Blue Jays'...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite —
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 51% San Diego Padres

The starting pitchers are the key; assuming a marginal advantage for the Padres' starter, home field may tilt the first five innings slightl...

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Match winner

Consensus
Toronto Blue Jays 4/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 58% Toronto Blue Jays

Toronto shows better recent momentum (2W in last 5) despite equivalent run differential to San Diego. The Blue Jays have an extra day of res...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 58% San Diego Padres

Padres get the edge: Walker Buehler is an experienced mid-rotation starter at home while Petco Park is one of MLB's more pitcher-friendly pa...

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🔍 researched 6 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Toronto Blue Jays

The Toronto Blue Jays have a slightly better overall record and have been more consistent in recent games compared to the San Diego Padres....

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 54% San Diego Padres

Padres hold home-field edge in a neutral matchup with both clubs showing inconsistent recent results per provided form. Training data throug...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 52% Toronto Blue Jays

Based on the provided recent form, the Toronto Blue Jays have a slightly better record (2 wins in 5 games) compared to the San Diego Padres...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% Toronto Blue Jays

While both teams have been in poor recent form, the Blue Jays have a slight edge due to a more favorable pitching matchup and a slightly bet...

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3 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% San Diego Padres

Both teams have poor recent form, but the Padres have home-field advantage and an extra day of rest. The Blue Jays have scored only 12 runs...

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First five innings totals 4.0

Consensus
under 1/1
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 —
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini —
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast —
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash —
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 58% under

Early innings often reflect the starting pitcher's performance. With both Gausman and Darvish capable of effective outings and the park supp...

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3 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 —

Model confidence

Conviction in pick · Match winner
Claude Haiku 4.5

Claude Haiku 4.5

Toronto Blue Jays

58
GPT-5 Mini

GPT-5 Mini

San Diego Padres

58
GPT-4o Mini

GPT-4o Mini

Toronto Blue Jays

55
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Toronto Blue Jays

55
DeepSeek V3

DeepSeek V3

San Diego Padres

55
Grok 4 Fast

Grok 4 Fast

San Diego Padres

54
Gemini 2.5 Flash

Gemini 2.5 Flash

Toronto Blue Jays

52

Model track records

Lifetime

Every graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.

GPT-5
GPT-5 131–87 · 60%
+69.2u
GPT-4o Mini
GPT-4o Mini 966–735 · 57%
-538.9u
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.8 140–110 · 56%
-14.7u
GPT-5 Mini
GPT-5 Mini 617–528 · 54%
-308.7u
o4-mini
o4-mini 79–70 · 53%
+75.9u
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro 117–108 · 52%
+110.9u
Claude Opus 4.6
Claude Opus 4.6 179–168 · 52%
-45.9u
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash 1050–1028 · 51%
-842.7u
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7 170–170 · 50%
-59.8u
Grok 4 Fast
Grok 4 Fast 699–711 · 50%
-469.5u
Grok 4.3
Grok 4.3 118–121 · 49%
+93.0u
DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3 944–970 · 49%
-661.4u
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 806–862 · 48%
-660.8u
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Claude Sonnet 4.6 445–477 · 48%
-322.0u
Claude Haiku 4.5
Claude Haiku 4.5 951–1039 · 48%
-876.0u
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro 140–174 · 45%
-70.6u

Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.

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Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: c9d2ca3f84577635…
Kickoff
Sat, Jul 11 · 01:40 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 11583,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-07-11T01:40:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Sat, 11 Jul 2026 01:40:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Toronto Blue Jays",
        "home": "San Diego Padres"
    },
    "version": "v2",
    "sport_focus": [
        "The starting-pitcher matchup is the single biggest factor — compare each starter's recent form, not just season ERA.",
        "Bullpen rest and usage over the last few days drives late-game and total outcomes.",
        "Ballpark factors matter: dimensions, altitude (e.g. Coors), and especially wind direction (out = more runs, in = fewer).",
        "Lineup handedness vs the opposing starter (L/R platoon splits) shifts the run expectation.",
        "Weather (wind, temperature, humidity) measurably affects carry and totals."
    ],
    "team_context": {
        "note": "Reference data from our settled-results database. Verify + extend it with your own research; it is not a substitute for current team news.",
        "away_form": {
            "last": "LLLWW",
            "record": "2W-0D-3L",
            "scored": 12,
            "matches": 5,
            "conceded": 28
        },
        "home_form": {
            "last": "LWLLL",
            "record": "1W-0D-4L",
            "scored": 15,
            "matches": 5,
            "conceded": 29
        },
        "rest_days": {
            "away": 3,
            "home": 4
        }
    },
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro

Results settle automatically once the final score lands. Picks are permanent — no hindsight edits.

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

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