MLB

Upcoming · in 82h 46m

San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers

Kickoff · Sun, Jun 28 · 20:10 GMT+0000

Picks locked at Jun 25 · 05:49 GMT+0000 24 picks recorded

Chat with the AIs about this match Pick the frontier models — Claude, GPT-5, Gemini, Grok & more — and watch them answer side by side, live, on the same brief. Open chat →

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified


                    hash:
                    8003c2545d4f0407…

Kickoff: Sun, Jun 28 · 20:10 GMT+0000
Markets: Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds: 15+ live books
Research: AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 7579,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-06-28T20:10:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Sun, 28 Jun 2026 20:10:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Los Angeles Dodgers",
        "home": "San Diego Padres"
    },
    "version": "v1",
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Your call

Who wins? One tap, no signup.

AI predictions

5 markets · 6 models picked

Who picked what

16 models × 5 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Unlock flagship models

Model	Match winner ?	Over / Under ?	Spread ?	First 5 innings ?	First five innings total runs ?
Claude Opus 4.7 Flagship Anthropic · 65-91 -45.1u	Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Flagship Anthropic · 67-82 -31.4u	Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Flagship Anthropic · 36-31 -13.2u	Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Flagship Anthropic · 299-338 -243.9u	Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Anthropic · 439-524 -428.8u	58% Los Angeles Dodgers	55% Over 8.5	56% Los Angeles Dodgers -1	54% Los Angeles Dodgers	—
Match winner ? 58% Los Angeles Dodgers The Dodgers hold a structural advantage in the NL West rivalry as a consistently stronger franchise with deeper pitching depth and more reli... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 55% Over 8.5 June baseball in late afternoon/evening conditions typically produces moderate run environments. Both the Dodgers and Padres field competiti... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 56% Los Angeles Dodgers -1 Consistent with the H2H edge, the Dodgers slight run-line favorite reflects their roster depth and win probability advantage. A one-run spre... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 54% Los Angeles Dodgers Five-inning play favors teams with superior starting pitching and early-game offense. The Dodgers historically deploy stronger opening-game... Unlock reasoning · Pro First five innings total runs ? No pick on this market.
GPT-5 Flagship Openai · 30-18 -3.0u	Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
GPT-5 Mini Openai · 230-206 -66.0u	—	—	—	—	—
Match winner ? No pick on this market. Over / Under ? No pick on this market. Spread ? No pick on this market. First 5 innings ? No pick on this market. First five innings total runs ? No pick on this market.
GPT-4o Mini Openai · 372-373 -262.6u	65% San Diego Padres	60% over	55% Los Angeles Dodgers	60% Los Angeles Dodgers	—
Match winner ? 65% San Diego Padres The San Diego Padres have a strong home record of 16-12 and have won 7 of their last 10 games, indicating good form at Petco Park. The Los A... Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched 4 sources cited Over / Under ? 60% over Both teams have potent offenses, with the Dodgers averaging 5.3 runs per game and the Padres 3.9. Additionally, the Dodgers' pitching staff... Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched 4 sources cited Spread ? 55% Los Angeles Dodgers The Dodgers have a slightly better overall record and have been more consistent throughout the season. Despite the Padres' strong home perfo... Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched 4 sources cited First 5 innings ? 60% Los Angeles Dodgers The Dodgers have a strong lineup capable of scoring early, and their pitching staff has been effective in the early innings. This suggests t... Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched 4 sources cited First five innings total runs ? No pick on this market.
o4-mini Flagship Openai · 17-11 -4.7u	Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Grok 4.3 Flagship Xai · 48-36 -1.1u	Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Grok 4 Fast Xai · 414-424 -241.1u	55% Los Angeles Dodgers	52% over	51% Los Angeles Dodgers	53% Los Angeles Dodgers	—
Match winner ? 55% Los Angeles Dodgers Los Angeles Dodgers project as the stronger roster overall based on historical talent and performance trends. Training data through 2025-09... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 52% over Both lineups feature high-powered offenses that historically produce elevated run totals in interleague play. Training data through 2025-09... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 51% Los Angeles Dodgers Dodgers maintain a slight run-line advantage on the road against divisional opponents in historical samples. Training data through 2025-09 s... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 53% Los Angeles Dodgers Early-game edge typically favors the Dodgers' stronger top of the order and starting pitching depth. Training data through 2025-09 shows sim... Unlock reasoning · Pro First five innings total runs ? No pick on this market.
Gemini 3.1 Pro Flagship Google · 37-42 -10.7u	Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Flagship Google · 63-97 -57.1u	Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Google · 406-450 -359.0u	58% Los Angeles Dodgers	55% Under 8.5 Runs	55% San Diego Padres +1.5 Runs	55% Los Angeles Dodgers F5 ML	—
Match winner ? 58% Los Angeles Dodgers Based on training data up to 2025-09, the Los Angeles Dodgers consistently exhibit superior roster depth and a higher overall talent level c... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 55% Under 8.5 Runs Petco Park, the Padres' home stadium, is historically known as a pitcher-friendly ballpark which tends to suppress run scoring. Divisional g... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 55% San Diego Padres +1.5 Runs Even when the Dodgers win against the Padres, especially at Petco Park, games are frequently decided by a single run. The Padres, at home, a... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 55% Los Angeles Dodgers F5 ML The Dodgers typically field a robust starting rotation and a deep lineup that can produce early offense. Their ability to score runs early a... Unlock reasoning · Pro First five innings total runs ? No pick on this market.
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Google · 380-484 -345.4u	60% Los Angeles Dodgers	55% over	55% Los Angeles Dodgers	—	55% over
Match winner ? 60% Los Angeles Dodgers The Los Angeles Dodgers are generally a stronger team than the San Diego Padres based on historical performance and roster depth. My trainin... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 55% over Both teams have offenses capable of scoring runs, and while pitching can be a factor, historical matchups suggest a tendency for moderate to... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 55% Los Angeles Dodgers Given the slight edge to the Dodgers in head-to-head outcomes, they are also favored to cover a small spread. This prediction accounts for t... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? No pick on this market. First five innings total runs ? 55% over Early game scoring is often driven by starting pitchers and early offensive momentum. My training knowledge indicates that games between the... Unlock reasoning · Pro
DeepSeek V3 Deepseek · 456-512 -300.1u	70% San Diego Padres	65% Over 8.5	55% San Diego Padres -1.5	68% San Diego Padres	—
Match winner ? 70% San Diego Padres Training data through 2025-09. The Padres have a strong home advantage and solid pitching rotation, while the Dodgers have key injuries to t... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 65% Over 8.5 Both teams have high-powered offenses, and the projected starting pitchers have elevated ERAs in recent starts. The ballpark in San Diego pl... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 55% San Diego Padres -1.5 The Padres have been winning comfortably at home, often by multiple runs. The Dodgers' depleted bullpen could struggle to keep the game clos... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 68% San Diego Padres The Padres' starter has strong first-half splits, while the Dodgers' starter tends to allow early runs. San Diego's offense is aggressive ea... Unlock reasoning · Pro First five innings total runs ? No pick on this market.
Consensus	Los Angeles Dodgers 4/6	over 3/6	Los Angeles Dodgers 3/6	Los Angeles Dodgers 3/5	over 1/1

Match winner

Consensus
Los Angeles Dodgers 4/6

Claude Opus 4.7 Pro

Claude Opus 4.6 Pro

Claude Opus 4.8 Pro

Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro

Claude Haiku 4.5 58% Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers hold a structural advantage in the NL West rivalry as a consistently stronger franchise with deeper pitching depth and more reli...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

GPT-5 Pro

GPT-5 Mini —

GPT-4o Mini 65% San Diego Padres

The San Diego Padres have a strong home record of 16-12 and have won 7 of their last 10 games, indicating good form at Petco Park. The Los A...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

🔍 researched 4 sources cited

o4-mini Pro

Grok 4.3 Pro

Grok 4 Fast 55% Los Angeles Dodgers

Los Angeles Dodgers project as the stronger roster overall based on historical talent and performance trends. Training data through 2025-09...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro

Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro

Gemini 2.5 Flash 58% Los Angeles Dodgers

Based on training data up to 2025-09, the Los Angeles Dodgers consistently exhibit superior roster depth and a higher overall talent level c...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 60% Los Angeles Dodgers

The Los Angeles Dodgers are generally a stronger team than the San Diego Padres based on historical performance and roster depth. My trainin...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

DeepSeek V3 70% San Diego Padres

Training data through 2025-09. The Padres have a strong home advantage and solid pitching rotation, while the Dodgers have key injuries to t...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Over / Under

Consensus
over 3/6

Claude Opus 4.7 Pro

Claude Opus 4.6 Pro

Claude Opus 4.8 Pro

Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro

Claude Haiku 4.5 55% Over 8.5

June baseball in late afternoon/evening conditions typically produces moderate run environments. Both the Dodgers and Padres field competiti...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

GPT-5 Pro

GPT-5 Mini —

GPT-4o Mini 60% over

Both teams have potent offenses, with the Dodgers averaging 5.3 runs per game and the Padres 3.9. Additionally, the Dodgers' pitching staff...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

🔍 researched 4 sources cited

o4-mini Pro

Grok 4.3 Pro

Grok 4 Fast 52% over

Both lineups feature high-powered offenses that historically produce elevated run totals in interleague play. Training data through 2025-09...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro

Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro

Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% Under 8.5 Runs

Petco Park, the Padres' home stadium, is historically known as a pitcher-friendly ballpark which tends to suppress run scoring. Divisional g...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% over

Both teams have offenses capable of scoring runs, and while pitching can be a factor, historical matchups suggest a tendency for moderate to...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

DeepSeek V3 65% Over 8.5

Both teams have high-powered offenses, and the projected starting pitchers have elevated ERAs in recent starts. The ballpark in San Diego pl...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Spread

Consensus
Los Angeles Dodgers 3/6

Claude Opus 4.7 Pro

Claude Opus 4.6 Pro

Claude Opus 4.8 Pro

Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro

Claude Haiku 4.5 56% Los Angeles Dodgers -1

Consistent with the H2H edge, the Dodgers slight run-line favorite reflects their roster depth and win probability advantage. A one-run spre...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

GPT-5 Pro

GPT-5 Mini —

GPT-4o Mini 55% Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers have a slightly better overall record and have been more consistent throughout the season. Despite the Padres' strong home perfo...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

🔍 researched 4 sources cited

o4-mini Pro

Grok 4.3 Pro

Grok 4 Fast 51% Los Angeles Dodgers

Dodgers maintain a slight run-line advantage on the road against divisional opponents in historical samples. Training data through 2025-09 s...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro

Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro

Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% San Diego Padres +1.5 Runs

Even when the Dodgers win against the Padres, especially at Petco Park, games are frequently decided by a single run. The Padres, at home, a...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% Los Angeles Dodgers

Given the slight edge to the Dodgers in head-to-head outcomes, they are also favored to cover a small spread. This prediction accounts for t...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

DeepSeek V3 55% San Diego Padres -1.5

The Padres have been winning comfortably at home, often by multiple runs. The Dodgers' depleted bullpen could struggle to keep the game clos...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

First 5 innings

Consensus
Los Angeles Dodgers 3/5

Claude Opus 4.7 Pro

Claude Opus 4.6 Pro

Claude Opus 4.8 Pro

Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro

Claude Haiku 4.5 54% Los Angeles Dodgers

Five-inning play favors teams with superior starting pitching and early-game offense. The Dodgers historically deploy stronger opening-game...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

GPT-5 Pro

GPT-5 Mini —

GPT-4o Mini 60% Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers have a strong lineup capable of scoring early, and their pitching staff has been effective in the early innings. This suggests t...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

🔍 researched 4 sources cited

o4-mini Pro

Grok 4.3 Pro

Grok 4 Fast 53% Los Angeles Dodgers

Early-game edge typically favors the Dodgers' stronger top of the order and starting pitching depth. Training data through 2025-09 shows sim...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro

Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro

Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% Los Angeles Dodgers F5 ML

The Dodgers typically field a robust starting rotation and a deep lineup that can produce early offense. Their ability to score runs early a...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite —

DeepSeek V3 68% San Diego Padres

The Padres' starter has strong first-half splits, while the Dodgers' starter tends to allow early runs. San Diego's offense is aggressive ea...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

First five innings total runs

Consensus
over 1/1

Claude Opus 4.7 Pro

Claude Opus 4.6 Pro

Claude Opus 4.8 Pro

Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro

Claude Haiku 4.5 —

GPT-5 Pro

GPT-5 Mini —

GPT-4o Mini —

o4-mini Pro

Grok 4.3 Pro

Grok 4 Fast —

Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro

Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro

Gemini 2.5 Flash —

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% over

Early game scoring is often driven by starting pitchers and early offensive momentum. My training knowledge indicates that games between the...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

DeepSeek V3 —

Pro on-demand

Request an AI audit

Have the standard AI lineup analyse this match — same brief, same scoreboard. Predictions appear publicly once the run finishes.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro

Claude Haiku 4.5
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
GPT-4o Mini
4 tool calls · 4 sources

4 citations captured — unlock with Pro
Grok 4 Fast
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
DeepSeek V3
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
Gemini 2.5 Flash
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

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Results settle automatically once the final score lands. Picks are permanent — no hindsight edits.

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