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MLB Major League Baseball · Petco Park
Upcoming · in 89h 47m
San Diego Padres logo

San Diego PadresvsHouston Astros

Houston Astros logo
Chat with the AIs Ask why they picked — live
Kickoff Locked 28picks AIs split

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AI predictions

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Who picked what

16 models × 4 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Match winner

Consensus
Houston Astros 4/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 58% Houston Astros

Both teams are evenly matched with identical 3-2 records over their last 5 matches and similar run differential (Padres +1, Astros 0). Howev...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 57% San Diego Padres

Padres get the edge: Petco Park is one of MLB's more pitcher-friendly venues and San Diego just added rotation depth at the deadline (Robbie...

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🔍 researched 6 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% Houston Astros

The Houston Astros have a strong recent form with 3 wins and 2 losses in their last 5 matches, scoring 31 runs and conceding 31. The San Die...

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🔍 researched 5 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 53% San Diego Padres

Padres play at pitcher-friendly Petco Park and hold a slight home edge in a neutral matchup. Astros recent form shows inconsistency while Pa...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 52% Houston Astros

Given the match is scheduled for 2026, specific current data like starting pitchers and lineups are unavailable. This prediction relies on h...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% Houston Astros

The Houston Astros have a slight edge due to their recent form and stronger offensive metrics. While both teams have identical recent record...

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3 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 58% San Diego Padres

Based on training data through mid-2025, the Padres have a balanced roster and strong home record, while the Astros have struggled on the ro...

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Over / Under

Consensus
over 3/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 54% Over 8.5

Combined scoring across both teams over the last 5 matches totals 62 runs in 10 team-games, averaging 6.2 runs per team per game. This sugge...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 63% under

Petco Park is structurally suppressive of runs (lower HR/run factors) and August evenings there often have marine-layer/wind conditions that...

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🔍 researched 6 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 70% over

Both teams have shown the ability to score runs recently, with the Astros scoring 31 runs and the Padres scoring 19 in their last 5 matches....

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🔍 researched 5 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 56% under

Petco Park and typical August marine layer reduce fly-ball distance and run totals. Both teams average around 4.5-5 runs per game in similar...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% Under 7.5

With no specific starting pitcher information available for 2026, the primary factor for totals is the ballpark. Petco Park is historically...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 60% over

The predicted starting pitchers are generally effective, but both offenses have shown an ability to score recently. Petco Park tends to be a...

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3 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% over

Petco Park has slightly suppressed scoring, but both lineups have power. Starting pitching matchups are uncertain due to lack of current dat...

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Spread

Consensus
San Diego Padres -1.5 2/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 56% Houston Astros -0.5

The Astros' superior offensive output (31 runs in 5 games vs 19) and recent momentum (last two wins) provide a modest edge in a run-line con...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 52% San Diego Padres -1.5

Runline preference for Padres -1.5 (win by 2+) leans on their home-park pitching advantage and added rotation depth; if Padres' starter eats...

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🔍 researched 6 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 65% Houston Astros

The Astros' recent offensive performance, scoring 31 runs in their last 5 matches, suggests they have the potential to cover a -1 spread. Th...

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🔍 researched 5 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 51% San Diego Padres -1.5

Home-field advantage and park factors give Padres a narrow edge on the run line. Recent scoring suggests games stay within a couple of runs....

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 52% Houston Astros -1.5

Aligning with the moneyline pick, the Astros' historical strength suggests they have the capability to win by more than one run. While the P...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 52% Houston Astros

Given the slight edge in offense and overall team strength, the Houston Astros are favored to win by more than one run. While the Padres are...

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3 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 51% San Diego Padres -1

The Padres are projected to win by a narrow margin, and the -1 run line is a modest ask. Their home advantage and slightly better rest give...

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First 5 innings

Consensus
San Diego Padres 2/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 52% Over 4.5 (first 5 innings)

First-inning and early-game scoring is typically 50–60% of total runs. Given the combined 5-game average of 6.2 runs per team per game (~12...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 60% under

Given Petco's pitcher-friendly profile and likely emphasis on lengthening starts after the deadline (Padres bolstered rotation), the first f...

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🔍 researched 6 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% Houston Astros

The Astros' recent offensive output, scoring 31 runs in their last 5 matches, indicates they can start games strong. The Padres' offense has...

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🔍 researched 5 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 52% San Diego Padres

Starting pitchers set the tone early and Petco favors the home staff in the opening innings. Lineup handedness splits provide modest Padres...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 52% Houston Astros FFI

The First Five Innings market heavily depends on the starting pitchers. Without specific starters for 2026, this pick relies on the Astros'...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 53% Houston Astros

The Houston Astros often start strong, and their recent offensive performance indicates they are likely to score early. The starting pitcher...

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3 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% San Diego Padres

The Padres have a solid starting rotation and home advantage. Early in the game, the starters are likely to be sharp, but the Padres' lineup...

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Model confidence

Conviction in pick · Match winner
GPT-4o Mini

GPT-4o Mini

Houston Astros

60
Claude Haiku 4.5

Claude Haiku 4.5

Houston Astros

58
DeepSeek V3

DeepSeek V3

San Diego Padres

58
GPT-5 Mini

GPT-5 Mini

San Diego Padres

57
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Houston Astros

55
Grok 4 Fast

Grok 4 Fast

San Diego Padres

53
Gemini 2.5 Flash

Gemini 2.5 Flash

Houston Astros

52

Model track records

Lifetime

Every graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.

GPT-5
GPT-5 145–91 · 61%
+67.5u
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.8 154–115 · 57%
-17.4u
GPT-4o Mini
GPT-4o Mini 1056–802 · 57%
-605.9u
GPT-5 Mini
GPT-5 Mini 692–586 · 54%
-365.1u
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro 130–112 · 54%
+111.8u
o4-mini
o4-mini 90–78 · 54%
+69.7u
Claude Opus 4.6
Claude Opus 4.6 193–173 · 53%
-47.6u
Grok 4.3
Grok 4.3 132–124 · 52%
+93.6u
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7 183–176 · 51%
-63.5u
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash 1130–1110 · 50%
-924.7u
Grok 4 Fast
Grok 4 Fast 741–743 · 50%
-501.5u
DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3 1032–1055 · 49%
-746.4u
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Claude Sonnet 4.6 459–482 · 49%
-323.7u
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 876–930 · 49%
-728.8u
Claude Haiku 4.5
Claude Haiku 4.5 1018–1093 · 48%
-930.0u
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro 151–179 · 46%
-73.8u

Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.

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Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: 97255e4703f6fe62…
Kickoff
Sat, Aug 8 · 01:40 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 21173,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": "Petco Park",
        "league": "Major League Baseball",
        "starts_at": "2026-08-08T01:40:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Sat, 08 Aug 2026 01:40:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Houston Astros",
        "home": "San Diego Padres"
    },
    "version": "v2",
    "sport_focus": [
        "The starting-pitcher matchup is the single biggest factor — compare each starter's recent form, not just season ERA.",
        "Bullpen rest and usage over the last few days drives late-game and total outcomes.",
        "Ballpark factors matter: dimensions, altitude (e.g. Coors), and especially wind direction (out = more runs, in = fewer).",
        "Lineup handedness vs the opposing starter (L/R platoon splits) shifts the run expectation.",
        "Weather (wind, temperature, humidity) measurably affects carry and totals."
    ],
    "team_context": {
        "note": "Reference data from our settled-results database. Verify + extend it with your own research; it is not a substitute for current team news.",
        "away_form": {
            "last": "LWLWW",
            "record": "3W-0D-2L",
            "scored": 31,
            "matches": 5,
            "conceded": 31
        },
        "home_form": {
            "last": "WWLWL",
            "record": "3W-0D-2L",
            "scored": 19,
            "matches": 5,
            "conceded": 18
        },
        "rest_days": {
            "away": 30,
            "home": 29
        }
    },
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

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Results settle automatically once the final score lands. Picks are permanent — no hindsight edits.

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

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