Football
FIFA World Cup
Upcoming · in 152h 42m
Portugal vs Uzbekistan
Kickoff · Tue, Jun 23 · 17:00 GMT+0000
Verifiable brief
Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified
hash:
db527bc37aa680f1…
- Kickoff
- Tue, Jun 23 · 17:00 GMT+0000
- Markets
- Match winner · Over / Under 2.5 · Both teams to score · Spread -1 · Asian handicap · Half-time / Full-time · Correct score
- Odds
- 15+ live books
- Research
- AIs self-source
System instruction
You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.
You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.
Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
`predictions` array length MUST equal 7. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
"0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.
Required markets (return ALL 7, in this order): h2h | totals_2.5 | btts | spreads_-1 | asian_handicap | ht_ft | correct_score
Output schema:
{
"used_research_tools": true | false,
"sources_cited": [
{ "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
],
"predictions": [
{
"market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
"pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
"confidence": 0.0,
"probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
"reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
"signals": [
{ "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
"label": "Short fact in plain text.",
"lean": "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
],
"tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
}
]
}
User brief (JSON)
{
"version": "v1",
"built_at": "2026-06-17T08:17:11+00:00",
"event": {
"id": 395,
"sport": "football",
"league": "FIFA World Cup",
"starts_at": "2026-06-23T17:00:00+00:00",
"starts_at_human": "Tue, 23 Jun 2026 17:00:00 GMT",
"venue": null
},
"teams": {
"home": "Portugal",
"away": "Uzbekistan"
},
"market_consensus": {
"h2h": {
"home": 1.28,
"draw": 6.95,
"away": 14.2
},
"extra_markets": {
"h2h": [
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Draw",
"price": 6
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Uzbekistan",
"price": 10
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Portugal",
"price": 1.2
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Draw",
"price": 6.95
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Uzbekistan",
"price": 12.5
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Portugal",
"price": 1.24
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Draw",
"price": 6.5
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Uzbekistan",
"price": 12
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Portugal",
"price": 1.22
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Draw",
"price": 6.5
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Uzbekistan",
"price": 12
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Portugal",
"price": 1.22
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Draw",
"price": 6.2
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Uzbekistan",
"price": 11
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Portugal",
"price": 1.25
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Draw",
"price": 6.1
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Uzbekistan",
"price": 10.75
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Portugal",
"price": 1.24
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Draw",
"price": 5.5
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Uzbekistan",
"price": 12
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Portugal",
"price": 1.25
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Draw",
"price": 5.5
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Uzbekistan",
"price": 12
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Portugal",
"price": 1.22
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Draw",
"price": 5.5
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Uzbekistan",
"price": 13
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Portugal",
"price": 1.22
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Draw",
"price": 5.5
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Uzbekistan",
"price": 9
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Portugal",
"price": 1.22
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Draw",
"price": 6
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Uzbekistan",
"price": 10
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Portugal",
"price": 1.25
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Draw",
"price": 6
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Uzbekistan",
"price": 10
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Portugal",
"price": 1.25
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Draw",
"price": 6.5
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Uzbekistan",
"price": 12
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Portugal",
"price": 1.24
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Draw",
"price": 6.75
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Uzbekistan",
"price": 12
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Portugal",
"price": 1.22
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Draw",
"price": 6.5
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Uzbekistan",
"price": 12
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Portugal",
"price": 1.22
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Draw",
"price": 6.95
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Uzbekistan",
"price": 12.5
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Portugal",
"price": 1.24
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Draw",
"price": 6.29
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Uzbekistan",
"price": 11.39
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Portugal",
"price": 1.21
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Draw",
"price": 6.2
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Uzbekistan",
"price": 13
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Portugal",
"price": 1.25
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Draw",
"price": 6.4
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Uzbekistan",
"price": 13.5
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Portugal",
"price": 1.26
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Draw",
"price": 6.4
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Uzbekistan",
"price": 13.5
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Portugal",
"price": 1.26
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Draw",
"price": 5.5
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Uzbekistan",
"price": 11
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Portugal",
"price": 1.22
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Draw",
"price": 5.75
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Uzbekistan",
"price": 10.5
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Portugal",
"price": 1.25
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Draw",
"price": 6
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Uzbekistan",
"price": 11
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Portugal",
"price": 1.26
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Draw",
"price": 6.25
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Uzbekistan",
"price": 12
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Portugal",
"price": 1.27
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Draw",
"price": 6
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Uzbekistan",
"price": 11
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Portugal",
"price": 1.25
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Draw",
"price": 5.8
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Uzbekistan",
"price": 10.2
}
],
"totals": [
{
"point": 3,
"outcome": "Under",
"price": 1.81
},
{
"point": 3,
"outcome": "Over",
"price": 2.08
},
{
"point": 3,
"outcome": "Under",
"price": 1.85
},
{
"point": 3,
"outcome": "Over",
"price": 1.98
},
{
"point": 3,
"outcome": "Under",
"price": 1.85
},
{
"point": 3,
"outcome": "Over",
"price": 1.98
},
{
"point": 2.5,
"outcome": "Under",
"price": 2.23
},
{
"point": 2.5,
"outcome": "Over",
"price": 1.56
},
{
"point": 2.5,
"outcome": "Under",
"price": 2.3
},
{
"point": 2.5,
"outcome": "Over",
"price": 1.57
},
{
"point": 2.5,
"outcome": "Under",
"price": 2.3
},
{
"point": 2.5,
"outcome": "Over",
"price": 1.54
},
{
"point": 3,
"outcome": "Under",
"price": 1.85
},
{
"point": 3,
"outcome": "Over",
"price": 1.98
},
{
"point": 3,
"outcome": "Under",
"price": 1.81
},
{
"point": 3,
"outcome": "Over",
"price": 2.08
},
{
"point": 3,
"outcome": "Under",
"price": 1.81
},
{
"point": 3,
"outcome": "Over",
"price": 1.98
},
{
"point": 3,
"outcome": "Under",
"price": 1.87
},
{
"point": 3,
"outcome": "Over",
"price": 1.94
},
{
"point": 3,
"outcome": "Under",
"price": 1.79
},
{
"point": 3,
"outcome": "Over",
"price": 1.93
}
],
"spreads": [
{
"point": 1.5,
"outcome": "Uzbekistan",
"price": 2.09
},
{
"point": -1.5,
"outcome": "Portugal",
"price": 1.8
},
{
"point": 1.75,
"outcome": "Uzbekistan",
"price": 1.87
},
{
"point": -1.75,
"outcome": "Portugal",
"price": 1.95
},
{
"point": 1.75,
"outcome": "Uzbekistan",
"price": 1.87
},
{
"point": -1.75,
"outcome": "Portugal",
"price": 1.95
},
{
"point": 1.5,
"outcome": "Uzbekistan",
"price": 2.09
},
{
"point": -1.5,
"outcome": "Portugal",
"price": 1.8
},
{
"point": 1.75,
"outcome": "Uzbekistan",
"price": 1.85
},
{
"point": -1.75,
"outcome": "Portugal",
"price": 1.94
},
{
"point": 1.5,
"outcome": "Uzbekistan",
"price": 2.02
},
{
"point": -1.5,
"outcome": "Portugal",
"price": 1.71
}
],
"h2h_lay": [
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Draw",
"price": 7.6
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Uzbekistan",
"price": 15.5
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Portugal",
"price": 1.28
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Draw",
"price": 7.6
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Uzbekistan",
"price": 15.5
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Portugal",
"price": 1.28
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Draw",
"price": 7.6
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Uzbekistan",
"price": 15.5
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Portugal",
"price": 1.28
}
]
},
"note": "Bookmaker consensus odds at the moment of the call. Frozen here so settlement grades against the same line."
},
"markets_requested": [
"h2h",
"totals_2.5",
"btts",
"spreads_-1",
"asian_handicap",
"ht_ft",
"correct_score"
],
"research_directive": [
"Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
"recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
"Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
"If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
]
}
The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.
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Bookmaker odds
44 books · sharp books pinned · best price highlighted
| Book | Portugal | Draw | Uzbekistan |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | 1.21 | 6.29 | 11.39 |
| Draftkings ↗ | 1.24 | 6.50 | 12.00 |
| Fanduel ↗ | 1.26 | 6.00 | 11.00 |
| Betmgm | 1.22 | 5.50 | 9.00 |
| William Hill | 1.25 | 5.50 | 12.00 |
| Betfair Exchange UK | 1.26 | 6.40 | 13.50 |
| Betfair Exchange EU | 1.26 | 6.40 | 13.50 |
| Betanysports | 1.22 | 6.50 | 12.00 |
| Betclic FR | 1.24 | 6.10 | 10.75 |
| Betfred | 1.25 | 6.00 | 11.00 |
| BetOnline | 1.24 | 6.95 | 12.50 |
| Betrivers | 1.26 | 6.00 | 11.50 |
| Betus | 1.22 | 6.50 | 12.00 |
| Betway | 1.20 | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| Bovada | 1.22 | 6.50 | 12.00 |
| Boylesports | 1.22 | 5.50 | 13.00 |
| Casumo | 1.26 | 6.00 | 11.50 |
| Codere It | 1.25 | 6.20 | 11.00 |
| Coolbet | 1.27 | 6.25 | 12.00 |
| Coral | 1.25 | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| Everygame | 1.22 | 6.75 | 12.00 |
| Grosvenor | 1.25 | 5.75 | 11.00 |
| Gtbets | 1.25 | 6.17 | 10.95 |
| Ladbrokes | 1.25 | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| Leovegas | 1.26 | 6.00 | 11.50 |
| Leovegas Se | 1.26 | 6.00 | 11.50 |
| Livescorebet | 1.25 | 5.75 | 11.00 |
| LowVig | 1.24 | 6.95 | 12.50 |
| Marathonbet | 1.24 | 6.15 | 13.75 |
| MyBookie | 1.23 | 5.80 | 10.20 |
| Onexbet | 1.26 | 6.19 | 14.20 |
| Paddy Power | 1.22 | 5.50 | 11.00 |
| Pmu | 1.25 | 5.75 | 11.00 |
| Skybet | 1.25 | 5.75 | 10.50 |
| Smarkets | 1.25 | 6.20 | 13.00 |
| Sport888 | 1.22 | 5.50 | 12.00 |
| Tipico | 1.20 | 6.80 | 13.00 |
| Unibet | 1.24 | 6.20 | 11.00 |
| Unibet Nl | 1.28 | 6.25 | 13.00 |
| Unibet Se | 1.28 | 6.25 | 13.00 |
| Unibet | 1.25 | 5.75 | 11.00 |
| Virginbet | 1.25 | 5.75 | 11.00 |
| Winamax | 1.20 | 5.70 | 9.00 |
| Winamax | 1.19 | 5.50 | 8.50 |
| Book | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | 2.8 | 1.78 | 2.03 |
| Betmgm | 2.5 | 1.54 | 2.30 |
| William Hill | 2.5 | 1.57 | 2.30 |
| Betanysports | 2.8 | 1.78 | 2.08 |
| BetOnline | 3.0 | 2.08 | 1.81 |
| Betrivers | 2.5 | 1.56 | 2.33 |
| Betus | 2.8 | 1.78 | 2.08 |
| Bovada | 2.8 | 1.80 | 2.05 |
| Casumo | 2.5 | 1.56 | 2.33 |
| Codere It | 2.5 | 1.56 | 2.23 |
| Coolbet | 3.0 | 1.94 | 1.87 |
| Grosvenor | 2.5 | 1.56 | 2.33 |
| Gtbets | 2.5 | 1.57 | 2.35 |
| Leovegas | 2.5 | 1.56 | 2.33 |
| LowVig | 3.0 | 2.08 | 1.81 |
| MyBookie | 3.0 | 1.93 | 1.79 |
| Onexbet | 2.5 | 1.60 | 2.38 |
| Pmu | 2.5 | 1.54 | 2.28 |
| Unibet Nl | 2.5 | 1.56 | 2.33 |
| Unibet Se | 2.5 | 1.60 | 2.38 |
| Book | Portugal | Uzbekistan |
|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | -1.8 @ 1.94 | +1.5 @ 2.00 |
| Betanysports | -1.8 @ 1.95 | +1.5 @ 2.02 |
| BetOnline | -1.5 @ 1.80 | +1.5 @ 2.09 |
| Betus | -1.5 @ 1.82 | +1.5 @ 2.02 |
| Bovada | -1.8 @ 1.95 | +1.5 @ 2.00 |
| Gtbets | -1.5 @ 1.74 | +1.5 @ 2.07 |
| LowVig | -1.5 @ 1.80 | +1.5 @ 2.09 |
| MyBookie | -1.5 @ 1.71 | +1.5 @ 2.02 |
| Onexbet | -1.5 @ 1.76 | +1.5 @ 2.09 |
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