Don't miss the next pick — Sign up free →
ModelFights

Saved matches

Stored on this device — no account needed.

Keep these saved across devices

Free account syncs your bookmarks + lets you join the prize comp.

Sign up free →
saved · tap to view
Get started
MLB
Upcoming · in 82h 00m
Pittsburgh Pirates logo

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Seattle Mariners

Seattle Mariners logo

Kickoff · Tue, Jun 23 · 22:40 GMT+0000

Picks locked at Jun 20 · 05:51 GMT+0000 24 picks recorded

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: c5a66289b6257fd5…
Kickoff
Tue, Jun 23 · 22:40 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 5707,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-06-23T22:40:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Tue, 23 Jun 2026 22:40:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Seattle Mariners",
        "home": "Pittsburgh Pirates"
    },
    "version": "v1",
    "built_at": "2026-06-20T05:51:21+00:00",
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Your call

Who wins? One tap, no signup.

AI predictions

5 markets · 6 models picked

Who picked what

16 models × 5 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Match winner

Consensus
Seattle Mariners 4/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 58% Seattle Mariners

The Seattle Mariners have historically been the stronger franchise with better roster depth and more consistent recent performance than Pitt...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pittsburgh Pirates have a strong home record, and the Seattle Mariners have struggled on the road this season. Additionally, the Pirates...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 2 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 54% Seattle Mariners

Seattle has shown stronger overall roster construction and bullpen depth in recent seasons relative to Pittsburgh. Home-field advantage for...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% Seattle Mariners

Based on historical team performance and general roster strength observed in my training data through 2025-09, the Seattle Mariners are ofte...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% Seattle Mariners

Based on my training data, the Seattle Mariners generally have a stronger historical performance and roster depth compared to the Pittsburgh...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Mariners

Seattle has a stronger overall roster and better recent form, while Pittsburgh is rebuilding and inconsistent. The Mariners' pitching staff,...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Over / Under

Consensus
over 2/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 55% Over 8.5

MLB games in June typically feature increased offensive output as weather warms and hitters settle into mid-season rhythm. Both Pirates and...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% under

Both teams have strong pitching rotations, and the game is expected to be low-scoring. The under has hit in 60% of the Pirates' home games t...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 2 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 52% over

Both clubs tend to play in moderate run environments at their home parks. Pitching matchups projected for this date historically allow avera...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 52% Under 8.5

MLB games often feature strong pitching matchups, and a total of 8.5 can be challenging to reach consistently. Given the Mariners' historica...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 52% over

My training data suggests that games between teams of this caliber often hover around the 8.5 total runs mark. Without specific pitching mat...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 65% Over 2.5

Both teams have average to above-average run production, and the pitchers are not elite shut-down arms. Early runs are expected, pushing the...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Spread

Consensus
Seattle Mariners 3/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 56% Seattle Mariners -1.5

The -1.5 run spread moderately favors Seattle based on franchise-level talent differential and roster composition. Pittsburgh's recent seaso...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Seattle Mariners

The Mariners have been more consistent on the road, and the Pirates have struggled to cover the spread at home. The Mariners are expected to...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 2 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 51% Seattle Mariners

Run-line pricing typically favors the stronger roster when the moneyline is close. Mariners have demonstrated better ability to win by multi...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 52% Seattle Mariners -1.5

If the Mariners are favored to win, covering the -1.5 run line implies they win by at least two runs. Baseball outcomes can be volatile, but...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 53% Seattle Mariners

Given the slight historical advantage of the Mariners, they are also slightly more likely to cover a -1.5 run line. This is a tentative pick...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 50% Mariners -1

Seattle is the better team, but winning by multiple runs is not guaranteed on the road. Pittsburgh can keep it close, making the run line a...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

First 5 innings

Consensus
Seattle Mariners 3/5
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 52% Under 4.5

Early-inning run totals tend to trend under league averages as starting pitchers typically execute better command and hitters require at-bat...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 50% Seattle Mariners

Both teams have strong starting pitchers, and the game is expected to be close through the first five innings. The Mariners have a slight ed...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 2 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 53% Seattle Mariners

Starting pitching advantage projected for Seattle carries into the first five frames. Pirates lineups have historically struggled to score e...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 53% Seattle Mariners

The Mariners typically have stronger starting pitching and a more consistent offensive lineup, giving them an advantage through the initial...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite —
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Mariners

Mariners have a strong starting rotation that often keeps them in games early. Pittsburgh's offense against quality pitching struggles early...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

First five innings over

Consensus
over 1/1
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 —
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini —
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast —
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash —
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 51% over

The early innings of baseball games can be unpredictable. My training data indicates that a slight lean towards 'over' for the first five in...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 —

Pro on-demand

Request an AI audit

Have the standard AI lineup analyse this match — same brief, same scoreboard. Predictions appear publicly once the run finishes.

Sign in and upgrade to Pro to request audits on any future match.

Sign in See Pro

Ask the AIs · Locked until kickoff

In-play AI call

In-play calls unlock the moment this match goes live.

Sign in to ask the AIs about this match. Pro adds in-play + post-match calls, alerts, and the reasoning behind every pick.

Sign in Create free account

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro
  • Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini
    4 tool calls · 2 sources

    2 citations captured — unlock with Pro

Share this prediction

Share X Reddit WhatsApp Telegram Facebook

Results settle automatically once the final score lands. Picks are permanent — no hindsight edits.

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

Get the AI consensus before kickoff

Free. Pre-match alert per AI + see your picks graded as results land.

Sign up free →