Pittsburgh Pirates vs Miami Marlins

Final: 3 – 2

Picks locked at Jun 12 · 19:12 GMT+0000 24 picks recorded · 7 graded

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified


                    hash:
                    ba5870ee3c7b0998…

Sport: Sat, Jun 13 · 20:05 GMT+0000
Markets: h2h · totals · spreads · first_five_innings
Source: The Odds API · live
Research: AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 2668,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-06-13T20:05:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Sat, 13 Jun 2026 20:05:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Miami Marlins",
        "home": "Pittsburgh Pirates"
    },
    "version": "v1",
    "built_at": "2026-06-13T18:21:25+00:00",
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

AI predictions

4 markets · 6 models picked

Who picked what

15 models × 4 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Unlock flagship models

Model	Spread ?	First 5 innings ?	Over / Under ?	Match winner ?
Claude Opus 4.7 Flagship Anthropic · 4-5 -1.2u	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Flagship Anthropic · 5-5 -0.3u	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Opus 4 Flagship Anthropic	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Flagship Anthropic · 125-128 -87.1u	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Anthropic · 168-149 -107.9u	53% Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5 V	51% Under 4.5 V	52% Over 8.5 V	55% Pittsburgh Pirates W
Spread ? 53% Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5 The Pirates hold a slight home-field advantage, but without knowledge of June 2026 starting pitchers, bullpen health, or recent team form, t... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 51% Under 4.5 First-five-innings totals typically favor the under in early-season pitching matchups where starters are fresh and strikeouts higher, though... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 52% Over 8.5 Both the Pirates and Marlins have historically shown modest offensive production, but MLB totals in June typically lean slightly toward over... Unlock reasoning · Pro Match winner ? 55% Pittsburgh Pirates As of my training data through September 2025, the Pirates have shown marginal competitive advantage over the Marlins in recent seasons. Wit... Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 Flagship Openai	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
GPT-5 Mini Openai · 30-17 +24.4u	—	—	—	—
Spread ? No pick on this market. First 5 innings ? No pick on this market. Over / Under ? No pick on this market. Match winner ? No pick on this market.
GPT-4o Mini Openai · 34-47 -25.2u	—	—	—	—
Spread ? No pick on this market. First 5 innings ? No pick on this market. Over / Under ? No pick on this market. Match winner ? No pick on this market.
o3 Flagship Openai	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Grok 4 Heavy Flagship Xai	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Grok 4 Fast Xai · 112-170 -91.3u	51% Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5 V	53% Pittsburgh Pirates V	52% under V	54% Pittsburgh Pirates W
Spread ? 51% Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5 Home team run differential favors a narrow Pirates win. Training data through 2025-09 shows Pittsburgh covering the run line at home 49 perc... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 53% Pittsburgh Pirates Starting pitchers give Pittsburgh a modest early edge. Training data through 2025-09 shows the Pirates winning the first five innings in 51... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 52% under Low-scoring pitching matchups are expected given both rotations' strikeout rates. Training data through 2025-09 shows Pirates home games ave... Unlock reasoning · Pro Match winner ? 54% Pittsburgh Pirates Both clubs are projected as below-average for 2026 with similar run differentials. Pittsburgh holds a slight home-field edge on a neutral su... Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Flagship Google · 4-7 -1.8u	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Google · 135-151 -121.4u	55% Miami Marlins +1.5 V	53% Pittsburgh Pirates V	53% Under 8.5 W	54% Pittsburgh Pirates W
Spread ? 55% Miami Marlins +1.5 Given that both the Pirates and Marlins are often closely matched based on historical performance, a one-run game is a common outcome. The M... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 53% Pittsburgh Pirates The First Five Innings often heavily depend on the starting pitchers. Without specific pitcher information for June 2026, I lean towards the... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 53% Under 8.5 Based on general team performance from training data, both the Pirates and Marlins are often involved in lower-scoring games, frequently due... Unlock reasoning · Pro Match winner ? 54% Pittsburgh Pirates Predicting for a future date (June 2026), this analysis relies solely on general MLB knowledge and historical team trends from training data... Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Google · 65-141 -96.1u	58% Miami Marlins V	59% Miami Marlins V	55% over V	60% Miami Marlins L
Spread ? 58% Miami Marlins Considering the projected win probability for the Marlins, they are slightly favored against the Pirates. This prediction assumes a small po... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 59% Miami Marlins The Miami Marlins often start games strong, and their general performance suggests they will lead or be tied after five innings more often t... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 55% over Historically, games between these teams have shown a tendency towards moderate scoring. Given the lack of specific lineup and pitching infor... Unlock reasoning · Pro Match winner ? 60% Miami Marlins Based on general MLB team performance trends and historical data through my last update, the Miami Marlins typically hold a slight advantage... Unlock reasoning · Pro
DeepSeek V3 Deepseek · 136-147 -106.2u	45% Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5 V	53% Pittsburgh Pirates V	52% Under V	55% Pittsburgh Pirates W
Spread ? 45% Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5 Pirates are slight favorites but covering a 1.5-run spread requires a multi-run win, which is less common in close games. Marlins covering t... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 53% Pittsburgh Pirates Pirates have a slight edge in early innings historically, with better starting pitcher performance in training data. The uncertainty around... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 52% Under Both teams have had inconsistent offenses in training data, and PNC Park tends to suppress runs slightly. The total is typically set around... Unlock reasoning · Pro Match winner ? 55% Pittsburgh Pirates Based on training data through 2025, the Pirates have a slight home-field advantage and better recent form versus the Marlins. However, with... Unlock reasoning · Pro
Consensus	Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5 4/6	Pittsburgh Pirates 3/6	under 8.5 1/6	Pittsburgh Pirates 5/6

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