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MLB
Final 3–2
Pittsburgh Pirates logo

Pittsburgh PiratesvsMiami Marlins

Miami Marlins logo
Chat with the AIs Ask why they picked — live
Final3–2 Locked 28picks · 16 graded
Recap Consensus called it

Pittsburgh Pirates 3–2 Miami Marlins

5 of 6 AIs leaned Pittsburgh Pirates — and reality agreed.

AI lean
Pittsburgh Pirates 5/6
Correct calls
5/6
Final
3–2

Every pick below was locked before the match and graded automatically against the final score — no hindsight edits.

AI predictions

Ask the AIs

Who picked what

16 models × 4 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Match winner

Consensus
Pittsburgh Pirates 5/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 55% Pittsburgh Pirates W

As of my training data through September 2025, the Pirates have shown marginal competitive advantage over the Marlins in recent seasons. Wit...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini —
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 54% Pittsburgh Pirates W

Both clubs are projected as below-average for 2026 with similar run differentials. Pittsburgh holds a slight home-field edge on a neutral su...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 54% Pittsburgh Pirates W

Predicting for a future date (June 2026), this analysis relies solely on general MLB knowledge and historical team trends from training data...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 60% Miami Marlins L

Based on general MLB team performance trends and historical data through my last update, the Miami Marlins typically hold a slight advantage...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Pittsburgh Pirates W

Based on training data through 2025, the Pirates have a slight home-field advantage and better recent form versus the Marlins. However, with...

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Spread

Consensus
Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5 5/8
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 53% Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5 L

The Pirates hold a slight home-field advantage, but without knowledge of June 2026 starting pitchers, bullpen health, or recent team form, t...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini —
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 51% Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5 L

Home team run differential favors a narrow Pirates win. Training data through 2025-09 shows Pittsburgh covering the run line at home 49 perc...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% Miami Marlins +1.5 W

Given that both the Pirates and Marlins are often closely matched based on historical performance, a one-run game is a common outcome. The M...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 58% Miami Marlins

Considering the projected win probability for the Marlins, they are slightly favored against the Pirates. This prediction assumes a small po...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 45% Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5 L

Pirates are slight favorites but covering a 1.5-run spread requires a multi-run win, which is less common in close games. Marlins covering t...

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First 5 innings

Consensus
Pittsburgh Pirates 3/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 51% Under 4.5

First-five-innings totals typically favor the under in early-season pitching matchups where starters are fresh and strikeouts higher, though...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini —
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 53% Pittsburgh Pirates

Starting pitchers give Pittsburgh a modest early edge. Training data through 2025-09 shows the Pirates winning the first five innings in 51...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 53% Pittsburgh Pirates

The First Five Innings often heavily depend on the starting pitchers. Without specific pitcher information for June 2026, I lean towards the...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 59% Miami Marlins

The Miami Marlins often start games strong, and their general performance suggests they will lead or be tied after five innings more often t...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 53% Pittsburgh Pirates

Pirates have a slight edge in early innings historically, with better starting pitcher performance in training data. The uncertainty around...

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Over / Under

Consensus
Under 2/8
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 52% Over 8.5

Both the Pirates and Marlins have historically shown modest offensive production, but MLB totals in June typically lean slightly toward over...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini —
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 52% under

Low-scoring pitching matchups are expected given both rotations' strikeout rates. Training data through 2025-09 shows Pirates home games ave...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 53% Under 8.5 W

Based on general team performance from training data, both the Pirates and Marlins are often involved in lower-scoring games, frequently due...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% over

Historically, games between these teams have shown a tendency towards moderate scoring. Given the lack of specific lineup and pitching infor...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 52% Under

Both teams have had inconsistent offenses in training data, and PNC Park tends to suppress runs slightly. The total is typically set around...

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Model confidence

Conviction in pick · Match winner
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Miami Marlins

60
Claude Haiku 4.5

Claude Haiku 4.5

Pittsburgh Pirates

55
DeepSeek V3

DeepSeek V3

Pittsburgh Pirates

55
Claude Sonnet 4.6

Claude Sonnet 4.6

Pittsburgh Pirates

54
Grok 4 Fast

Grok 4 Fast

Pittsburgh Pirates

54
Gemini 2.5 Flash

Gemini 2.5 Flash

Pittsburgh Pirates

54

Model track records

Lifetime

Every graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.

GPT-5
GPT-5 145–91 · 61%
+67.5u
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.8 154–115 · 57%
-17.4u
GPT-4o Mini
GPT-4o Mini 1056–799 · 57%
-602.9u
GPT-5 Mini
GPT-5 Mini 690–586 · 54%
-365.1u
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro 130–112 · 54%
+111.8u
o4-mini
o4-mini 90–78 · 54%
+69.7u
Claude Opus 4.6
Claude Opus 4.6 193–173 · 53%
-47.6u
Grok 4.3
Grok 4.3 132–124 · 52%
+93.6u
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7 183–176 · 51%
-63.5u
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash 1128–1109 · 50%
-923.7u
Grok 4 Fast
Grok 4 Fast 740–743 · 50%
-501.5u
DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3 1031–1055 · 49%
-746.4u
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Claude Sonnet 4.6 459–482 · 49%
-323.7u
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 876–927 · 49%
-725.8u
Claude Haiku 4.5
Claude Haiku 4.5 1017–1091 · 48%
-928.0u
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro 151–179 · 46%
-73.8u

Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: 5ddbc61358e17e90…
Kickoff
Sat, Jun 13 · 20:05 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 2668,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-06-13T20:05:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Sat, 13 Jun 2026 20:05:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Miami Marlins",
        "home": "Pittsburgh Pirates"
    },
    "version": "v1",
    "built_at": "2026-06-12T19:12:35+00:00",
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

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