Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds
Kickoff · Sun, Jun 28 · 17:35 GMT+0000
Verifiable brief
Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified
hash:
90137e95a8ba3d6f…
- Kickoff
- Sun, Jun 28 · 17:35 GMT+0000
- Markets
- Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
- Odds
- 15+ live books
- Research
- AIs self-source
System instruction
You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.
You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.
Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
`predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
"0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.
Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings
Output schema:
{
"used_research_tools": true | false,
"sources_cited": [
{ "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
],
"predictions": [
{
"market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
"pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
"confidence": 0.0,
"probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
"reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
"signals": [
{ "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
"label": "Short fact in plain text.",
"lean": "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
],
"tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
}
]
}
User brief (JSON)
{
"event": {
"id": 7561,
"sport": "baseball",
"venue": null,
"league": "MLB",
"starts_at": "2026-06-28T17:35:00+00:00",
"starts_at_human": "Sun, 28 Jun 2026 17:35:00 GMT"
},
"teams": {
"away": "Cincinnati Reds",
"home": "Pittsburgh Pirates"
},
"version": "v1",
"market_consensus": {
"h2h": [],
"note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
"extra_markets": []
},
"markets_requested": [
"h2h",
"totals",
"spreads",
"first_five_innings"
],
"research_directive": [
"Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
"recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
"Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
"If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
]
}
The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.
Your call
Who wins? One tap, no signup.
AI predictions
4 markets · 4 models picked
Who picked what
16 models × 4 markets · click a row to see reasoning
| Model |
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
|
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
|
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
|
First 5 innings
?
First 5 innings
First five innings result. Standings after five innings, regardless of late drama.
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Claude Opus 4.7 FlagshipAnthropic |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
|
Claude Opus 4.6 FlagshipAnthropic |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
|
Claude Opus 4.8 FlagshipAnthropic |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
|
Claude Sonnet 4.6 FlagshipAnthropic |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
|
Claude Haiku 4.5 Anthropic |
52%
Pittsburgh Pirates |
55%
Over 8.5 |
51%
Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5 |
54%
Pittsburgh Pirates |
|
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
52%
Pittsburgh Pirates Pittsburgh and Cincinnati are division rivals with historically competitive matchups. Without access to live 2026 season data, standings, cu...
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
55%
Over 8.5 MLB totals in 2026 reflect the league's elevated run-scoring environment and offensive emphasis. Pirates and Reds both play in the NL Centra...
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
51%
Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5 The Pirates' home-field advantage and marginally stronger roster composition justify a small run-line edge. Cincinnati is competitive but ty...
First 5 innings
?
First 5 innings
First five innings result. Standings after five innings, regardless of late drama.
54%
Pittsburgh Pirates First five innings markets favor strong offensive teams and effective starting pitchers in early frames. Pittsburgh's organizational strengt... |
|||||
GPT-5 FlagshipOpenai |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
|
GPT-5 Mini Openai |
— | — | — | — | |
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
No pick on this market.
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
No pick on this market.
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
No pick on this market.
First 5 innings
?
First 5 innings
First five innings result. Standings after five innings, regardless of late drama.
No pick on this market. |
|||||
|
GPT-4o Mini Openai |
— | — | — | — | |
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
No pick on this market.
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
No pick on this market.
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
No pick on this market.
First 5 innings
?
First 5 innings
First five innings result. Standings after five innings, regardless of late drama.
No pick on this market. |
|||||
|
o4-mini FlagshipOpenai |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
Grok 4.3 FlagshipXai |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
|
Grok 4 Fast Xai |
53%
Pittsburgh Pirates |
51%
over |
52%
Pittsburgh Pirates |
51%
Pittsburgh Pirates |
|
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
53%
Pittsburgh Pirates Pittsburgh hosts Cincinnati in a matchup of two rebuilding clubs with similar overall talent levels. Home-field advantage and slight edge in...
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
51%
over Both lineups feature young power hitters who can produce runs in warm June weather. Historical divisional games between these clubs trend sl...
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
52%
Pittsburgh Pirates Run-line value sits with the Pirates given their home performance and Cincinnati's road struggles in recent years. The spread market typical...
First 5 innings
?
First 5 innings
First five innings result. Standings after five innings, regardless of late drama.
51%
Pittsburgh Pirates Starting pitching matchups in these games often keep the first five close, but Pittsburgh's home starters have held a slight edge historical... |
|||||
Gemini 3.1 Pro Flagship |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
|
Gemini 2.5 Pro Flagship |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
|
Gemini 2.5 Flash |
52%
Pittsburgh Pirates |
51%
Under 8.5 |
55%
Cincinnati Reds +1.5 |
51%
Pittsburgh Pirates |
|
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
52%
Pittsburgh Pirates Based on my training data up to my last update, the Pittsburgh Pirates typically hold a slight home-field advantage against divisional rival...
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
51%
Under 8.5 Assuming typical MLB pitching performances from both teams, and given that games between these two divisional rivals can often be tightly co...
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
55%
Cincinnati Reds +1.5 Even with a slight home advantage for the Pirates, games between these two teams are historically close, based on my training data. It's oft...
First 5 innings
?
First 5 innings
First five innings result. Standings after five innings, regardless of late drama.
51%
Pittsburgh Pirates The first five innings often heavily depend on the starting pitchers. Without specific pitcher information for this 2026 game, I default to... |
|||||
|
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite |
— | — | — | — | |
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
No pick on this market.
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
No pick on this market.
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
No pick on this market.
First 5 innings
?
First 5 innings
First five innings result. Standings after five innings, regardless of late drama.
No pick on this market. |
|||||
DeepSeek V3 Deepseek |
55%
Pittsburgh Pirates |
70%
Over 2.5 |
40%
Pittsburgh Pirates -1 |
52%
Pittsburgh Pirates |
|
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
55%
Pittsburgh Pirates The Pirates have had a slight edge at home over the Reds in recent seasons, and the Reds' pitching staff is inconsistent. Without specific l...
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
70%
Over 2.5 Both teams have average to below-average pitching staffs, leading to moderate scoring. Recent head-to-head games at PNC Park tend to produce...
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
40%
Pittsburgh Pirates -1 The Pirates' home advantage is not enough to justify a run line of -1 with confidence, as close games are common. The Reds can keep it withi...
First 5 innings
?
First 5 innings
First five innings result. Standings after five innings, regardless of late drama.
52%
Pittsburgh Pirates The Pirates' early-game bullpen performance has been decent, and home advantage matters more early on. The Reds have a weaker starting rotat... |
|||||
|
Consensus |
Pittsburgh Pirates 4/4 |
Over 8.5 1/4 |
Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5 1/4 |
Pittsburgh Pirates 4/4 |
|
Match winner
ConsensusPittsburgh Pirates 4/4
Claude Haiku 4.5
52%
Pittsburgh Pirates
Pittsburgh and Cincinnati are division rivals with historically competitive matchups. Without access to live 2026 season data, standings, cu...
GPT-5 Mini
—
GPT-4o Mini
—
Grok 4 Fast
53%
Pittsburgh Pirates
Pittsburgh hosts Cincinnati in a matchup of two rebuilding clubs with similar overall talent levels. Home-field advantage and slight edge in...
Gemini 2.5 Flash
52%
Pittsburgh Pirates
Based on my training data up to my last update, the Pittsburgh Pirates typically hold a slight home-field advantage against divisional rival...
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
—
DeepSeek V3
55%
Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pirates have had a slight edge at home over the Reds in recent seasons, and the Reds' pitching staff is inconsistent. Without specific l...
Over / Under
ConsensusOver 8.5 1/4
Claude Haiku 4.5
55%
Over 8.5
MLB totals in 2026 reflect the league's elevated run-scoring environment and offensive emphasis. Pirates and Reds both play in the NL Centra...
GPT-5 Mini
—
GPT-4o Mini
—
Grok 4 Fast
51%
over
Both lineups feature young power hitters who can produce runs in warm June weather. Historical divisional games between these clubs trend sl...
Gemini 2.5 Flash
51%
Under 8.5
Assuming typical MLB pitching performances from both teams, and given that games between these two divisional rivals can often be tightly co...
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
—
DeepSeek V3
70%
Over 2.5
Both teams have average to below-average pitching staffs, leading to moderate scoring. Recent head-to-head games at PNC Park tend to produce...
Spread
ConsensusPittsburgh Pirates -1.5 1/4
Claude Haiku 4.5
51%
Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5
The Pirates' home-field advantage and marginally stronger roster composition justify a small run-line edge. Cincinnati is competitive but ty...
GPT-5 Mini
—
GPT-4o Mini
—
Grok 4 Fast
52%
Pittsburgh Pirates
Run-line value sits with the Pirates given their home performance and Cincinnati's road struggles in recent years. The spread market typical...
Gemini 2.5 Flash
55%
Cincinnati Reds +1.5
Even with a slight home advantage for the Pirates, games between these two teams are historically close, based on my training data. It's oft...
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
—
DeepSeek V3
40%
Pittsburgh Pirates -1
The Pirates' home advantage is not enough to justify a run line of -1 with confidence, as close games are common. The Reds can keep it withi...
First 5 innings
ConsensusPittsburgh Pirates 4/4
Claude Haiku 4.5
54%
Pittsburgh Pirates
First five innings markets favor strong offensive teams and effective starting pitchers in early frames. Pittsburgh's organizational strengt...
GPT-5 Mini
—
GPT-4o Mini
—
Grok 4 Fast
51%
Pittsburgh Pirates
Starting pitching matchups in these games often keep the first five close, but Pittsburgh's home starters have held a slight edge historical...
Gemini 2.5 Flash
51%
Pittsburgh Pirates
The first five innings often heavily depend on the starting pitchers. Without specific pitcher information for this 2026 game, I default to...
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
—
DeepSeek V3
52%
Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pirates' early-game bullpen performance has been decent, and home advantage matters more early on. The Reds have a weaker starting rotat...
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