Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds
Kickoff · Sat, Jun 27 · 20:05 GMT+0000
Verifiable brief
Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified
hash:
73f762e5c74c2f35…
- Kickoff
- Sat, Jun 27 · 20:05 GMT+0000
- Markets
- Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
- Odds
- 15+ live books
- Research
- AIs self-source
System instruction
You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.
You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.
Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
`predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
"0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.
Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings
Output schema:
{
"used_research_tools": true | false,
"sources_cited": [
{ "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
],
"predictions": [
{
"market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
"pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
"confidence": 0.0,
"probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
"reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
"signals": [
{ "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
"label": "Short fact in plain text.",
"lean": "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
],
"tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
}
]
}
User brief (JSON)
{
"event": {
"id": 7044,
"sport": "baseball",
"venue": null,
"league": "MLB",
"starts_at": "2026-06-27T20:05:00+00:00",
"starts_at_human": "Sat, 27 Jun 2026 20:05:00 GMT"
},
"teams": {
"away": "Cincinnati Reds",
"home": "Pittsburgh Pirates"
},
"version": "v1",
"built_at": "2026-06-24T05:46:50+00:00",
"market_consensus": {
"h2h": [],
"note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
"extra_markets": []
},
"markets_requested": [
"h2h",
"totals",
"spreads",
"first_five_innings"
],
"research_directive": [
"Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
"recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
"Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
"If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
]
}
The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.
Your call
Who wins? One tap, no signup.
AI predictions
5 markets · 5 models picked
Who picked what
16 models × 5 markets · click a row to see reasoning
| Model |
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
|
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
|
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
|
First 5 innings
?
First 5 innings
First five innings result. Standings after five innings, regardless of late drama.
|
First five innings ml
?
First five innings ml
Market explanation coming soon.
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Claude Opus 4.7 FlagshipAnthropic |
Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
|||||
|
Claude Opus 4.6 FlagshipAnthropic |
Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
|||||
|
Claude Opus 4.8 FlagshipAnthropic |
Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
|||||
|
Claude Sonnet 4.6 FlagshipAnthropic |
Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro
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|
|||||
|
Claude Haiku 4.5 Anthropic |
52%
Cincinnati Reds |
58%
Over 8.5 |
49%
Cincinnati Reds -1.5 |
51%
Cincinnati Reds |
— | |
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
52%
Cincinnati Reds Cincinnati has historically held a slight edge in the Pirates–Reds matchup over recent seasons. Late June typically favors teams with strong...
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
58%
Over 8.5 Late-June baseball typically produces elevated run totals due to warmer weather, fresher bats post-trade deadline, and both teams being mid-...
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
49%
Cincinnati Reds -1.5 Spreads in baseball are tight; this is essentially a coin flip. Cincinnati's historical slight edge in the matchup gives them a marginal lea...
First 5 innings
?
First 5 innings
First five innings result. Standings after five innings, regardless of late drama.
51%
Cincinnati Reds First-five-inning markets are highly dependent on starting pitcher matchups and early-game discipline. Without 2026 starter data, I apply th...
First five innings ml
?
First five innings ml
Market explanation coming soon.
No pick on this market. |
||||||
GPT-5 FlagshipOpenai |
Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
|||||
|
GPT-5 Mini Openai |
— | — | — | — | — | |
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
No pick on this market.
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
No pick on this market.
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
No pick on this market.
First 5 innings
?
First 5 innings
First five innings result. Standings after five innings, regardless of late drama.
No pick on this market.
First five innings ml
?
First five innings ml
Market explanation coming soon.
No pick on this market. |
||||||
|
GPT-4o Mini Openai |
55%
Pittsburgh Pirates |
60%
over |
55%
Pittsburgh Pirates |
55%
Pittsburgh Pirates |
— | |
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
55%
Pittsburgh Pirates The Pittsburgh Pirates have a strong home record this season, while the Cincinnati Reds have struggled on the road. Additionally, the Pirate...
🔍 researched
1 source cited
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
60%
over Both teams have shown tendencies to score high in recent games, and the ballpark is known for favoring hitters, suggesting a higher-scoring...
🔍 researched
1 source cited
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
55%
Pittsburgh Pirates Given the Pirates' home advantage and the Reds' road struggles, the Pirates are likely to cover the -1 spread.
🔍 researched
1 source cited
First 5 innings
?
First 5 innings
First five innings result. Standings after five innings, regardless of late drama.
55%
Pittsburgh Pirates The Pirates have been strong in the early innings at home, and the Reds have struggled to score early on the road.
🔍 researched
1 source cited
First five innings ml
?
First five innings ml
Market explanation coming soon.
No pick on this market. |
||||||
|
o4-mini FlagshipOpenai |
Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
|||||
Grok 4.3 FlagshipXai |
Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
|||||
|
Grok 4 Fast Xai |
53%
Pittsburgh Pirates |
51%
over |
48%
Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5 |
54%
Pittsburgh Pirates |
— | |
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
53%
Pittsburgh Pirates Training data through 2025-09 shows Pirates hold a slight home edge in divisional play against the Reds. Both clubs finished near .500 in re...
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
51%
over Training data through 2025-09 indicates average run totals near 9.2 in Pirates home games. Both offenses feature power hitters who exploit w...
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
48%
Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5 Training data through 2025-09 shows the Pirates cover the run line at home roughly 47 percent of the time. The Reds bullpen allows frequent...
First 5 innings
?
First 5 innings
First five innings result. Standings after five innings, regardless of late drama.
54%
Pittsburgh Pirates Training data through 2025-09 highlights Pirates starters holding a 3.85 ERA at home versus divisional foes. Reds lineup struggles early aga...
First five innings ml
?
First five innings ml
Market explanation coming soon.
No pick on this market. |
||||||
Gemini 3.1 Pro Flagship |
Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
|||||
|
Gemini 2.5 Pro Flagship |
Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
|||||
|
Gemini 2.5 Flash |
52%
Pittsburgh Pirates |
53%
Under 8.5 |
55%
Cincinnati Reds +1.5 |
— |
51%
Pittsburgh Pirates |
|
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
52%
Pittsburgh Pirates Based on my training data through September 2025, the Pittsburgh Pirates typically have a slight home-field advantage against divisional opp...
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
53%
Under 8.5 Assuming an average total line of 8.5 runs for an MLB game, and without specific pitching matchups for 2026, I lean towards the under. Both...
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
55%
Cincinnati Reds +1.5 Even when a home team like the Pirates is favored, many MLB games are decided by one run. The Reds, historically, are a competitive team, ma...
First 5 innings
?
First 5 innings
First five innings result. Standings after five innings, regardless of late drama.
No pick on this market.
First five innings ml
?
First five innings ml
Market explanation coming soon.
51%
Pittsburgh Pirates The first five innings heavily depend on the starting pitchers, whose identities are unknown for this 2026 game. Given the Pirates' slight h... |
||||||
|
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite |
— | — | — | — | — | |
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
No pick on this market.
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
No pick on this market.
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
No pick on this market.
First 5 innings
?
First 5 innings
First five innings result. Standings after five innings, regardless of late drama.
No pick on this market.
First five innings ml
?
First five innings ml
Market explanation coming soon.
No pick on this market. |
||||||
DeepSeek V3 Deepseek |
54%
Pittsburgh Pirates |
52%
Over 8.5 |
35%
Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5 |
55%
Pittsburgh Pirates |
— | |
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
54%
Pittsburgh Pirates The Pirates have a slight edge at home, with generally stronger recent form through mid-2025 and a deeper pitching rotation. The Reds have b...
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
52%
Over 8.5 Both teams have mid-tier offenses, but the Pirates' home park (PNC Park) is slightly hitter-friendly. Expected starters are not dominant, an...
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
35%
Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5 The Pirates are slight favorites, but winning by 2+ runs is risky against a competitive Reds team. The +1.5 line for the Reds offers good va...
First 5 innings
?
First 5 innings
First five innings result. Standings after five innings, regardless of late drama.
55%
Pittsburgh Pirates The Pirates' bullpen has been shaky, but their starting pitcher in the first five innings historically edges out the Reds' starter. Home adv...
First five innings ml
?
First five innings ml
Market explanation coming soon.
No pick on this market. |
||||||
|
Consensus |
Pittsburgh Pirates 4/5 |
Over 8.5 2/5 |
Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5 2/5 |
Pittsburgh Pirates 3/4 |
Pittsburgh Pirates 1/1 |
|
Match winner
ConsensusPittsburgh Pirates 4/5
Claude Haiku 4.5
52%
Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati has historically held a slight edge in the Pirates–Reds matchup over recent seasons. Late June typically favors teams with strong...
GPT-5 Mini
—
GPT-4o Mini
55%
Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pittsburgh Pirates have a strong home record this season, while the Cincinnati Reds have struggled on the road. Additionally, the Pirate...
Grok 4 Fast
53%
Pittsburgh Pirates
Training data through 2025-09 shows Pirates hold a slight home edge in divisional play against the Reds. Both clubs finished near .500 in re...
Gemini 2.5 Flash
52%
Pittsburgh Pirates
Based on my training data through September 2025, the Pittsburgh Pirates typically have a slight home-field advantage against divisional opp...
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
—
DeepSeek V3
54%
Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pirates have a slight edge at home, with generally stronger recent form through mid-2025 and a deeper pitching rotation. The Reds have b...
Over / Under
ConsensusOver 8.5 2/5
Claude Haiku 4.5
58%
Over 8.5
Late-June baseball typically produces elevated run totals due to warmer weather, fresher bats post-trade deadline, and both teams being mid-...
GPT-5 Mini
—
GPT-4o Mini
60%
over
Both teams have shown tendencies to score high in recent games, and the ballpark is known for favoring hitters, suggesting a higher-scoring...
Grok 4 Fast
51%
over
Training data through 2025-09 indicates average run totals near 9.2 in Pirates home games. Both offenses feature power hitters who exploit w...
Gemini 2.5 Flash
53%
Under 8.5
Assuming an average total line of 8.5 runs for an MLB game, and without specific pitching matchups for 2026, I lean towards the under. Both...
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
—
DeepSeek V3
52%
Over 8.5
Both teams have mid-tier offenses, but the Pirates' home park (PNC Park) is slightly hitter-friendly. Expected starters are not dominant, an...
Spread
ConsensusPittsburgh Pirates -1.5 2/5
Claude Haiku 4.5
49%
Cincinnati Reds -1.5
Spreads in baseball are tight; this is essentially a coin flip. Cincinnati's historical slight edge in the matchup gives them a marginal lea...
GPT-5 Mini
—
GPT-4o Mini
55%
Pittsburgh Pirates
Given the Pirates' home advantage and the Reds' road struggles, the Pirates are likely to cover the -1 spread.
Grok 4 Fast
48%
Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5
Training data through 2025-09 shows the Pirates cover the run line at home roughly 47 percent of the time. The Reds bullpen allows frequent...
Gemini 2.5 Flash
55%
Cincinnati Reds +1.5
Even when a home team like the Pirates is favored, many MLB games are decided by one run. The Reds, historically, are a competitive team, ma...
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
—
DeepSeek V3
35%
Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5
The Pirates are slight favorites, but winning by 2+ runs is risky against a competitive Reds team. The +1.5 line for the Reds offers good va...
First 5 innings
ConsensusPittsburgh Pirates 3/4
Claude Haiku 4.5
51%
Cincinnati Reds
First-five-inning markets are highly dependent on starting pitcher matchups and early-game discipline. Without 2026 starter data, I apply th...
GPT-5 Mini
—
GPT-4o Mini
55%
Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pirates have been strong in the early innings at home, and the Reds have struggled to score early on the road.
Grok 4 Fast
54%
Pittsburgh Pirates
Training data through 2025-09 highlights Pirates starters holding a 3.85 ERA at home versus divisional foes. Reds lineup struggles early aga...
Gemini 2.5 Flash
—
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
—
DeepSeek V3
55%
Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pirates' bullpen has been shaky, but their starting pitcher in the first five innings historically edges out the Reds' starter. Home adv...
First five innings ml
ConsensusPittsburgh Pirates 1/1
Claude Haiku 4.5
—
GPT-5 Mini
—
GPT-4o Mini
—
Grok 4 Fast
—
Gemini 2.5 Flash
51%
Pittsburgh Pirates
The first five innings heavily depend on the starting pitchers, whose identities are unknown for this 2026 game. Given the Pirates' slight h...
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
—
DeepSeek V3
—
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Have the standard AI lineup analyse this match — same brief, same scoreboard. Predictions appear publicly once the run finishes.
Research trail
What each AI looked up before picking
-
0 tool calls · 0 sources
No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
-
4 tool calls · 1 source
1 citation captured — unlock with Pro
-
0 tool calls · 0 sources
No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
-
0 tool calls · 0 sources
No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
-
0 tool calls · 0 sources
No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
Results settle automatically once the final score lands. Picks are permanent — no hindsight edits.
Recent recaps
How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.
Get the AI consensus before kickoff
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