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MLB PNC Park
Upcoming · in 82h 29m
Pittsburgh Pirates logo

Pittsburgh PiratesvsBoston Red Sox

Boston Red Sox logo
Chat with the AIs Ask why they picked — live
Kickoff Locked 28picks

Your call

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AI predictions

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Who picked what

16 models × 4 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Match winner

Consensus
Boston Red Sox 7/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 62% Boston Red Sox

Boston arrives in exceptional form (5-0 in last 5, +24 run differential) while Pittsburgh has struggled (3-2 with inconsistent offense, +13...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 62% Boston Red Sox

Boston arrives with a clearer overall roster advantage and a lefty starter (Patrick Sandoval) who has shown the ability to eat early innings...

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🔍 researched 9 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 65% Boston Red Sox

The Boston Red Sox have been in strong form, winning their last five games with a 5-0 record, scoring 34 runs and conceding 10. In contrast,...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 57% Boston Red Sox

Boston enters with a perfect 5-0 run and superior overall roster depth. Pittsburgh's mixed recent results and weaker road splits favor the v...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 60% Boston Red Sox

Boston enters this game in dominant form, having won their last five matches while scoring significantly more runs than they conceded. Pitts...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 60% Boston Red Sox

The Boston Red Sox are in exceptional recent form, winning their last five games and demonstrating a strong offense. While the Pirates have...

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4 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 58% Boston Red Sox

Based on training data through 2025-09, the Red Sox have been a stronger team overall, with a superior lineup and starting pitching. They ar...

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Over / Under

Consensus
over 3/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 58% Under 8.5

PNC Park is one of baseball's most pitcher-friendly ballparks with deep foul territory and spacious outfield gaps. Boston's recent form show...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 58% under

Both probable starters profile as mid-rotation arms who often work 4–6 innings; Sandoval has been limited in 2026 and Jones has had some sho...

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🔍 researched 9 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% over

Both teams have demonstrated strong offensive capabilities recently, with the Red Sox scoring 34 runs in their last five games and the Pirat...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 52% under

PNC Park suppresses offense and both staffs project to limit long balls. Boston's recent scoring has been efficient but not explosive. Pirat...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 60% Over 8.5

Both teams have demonstrated strong offensive capabilities in their last five games, with Boston averaging 6.8 runs and Pittsburgh averaging...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% over

Both teams have shown potent offenses recently, with the Red Sox scoring 34 runs in their last 5 games and the Pirates 35. While PNC Park ca...

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4 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% over

Both teams have scored well recently, with Boston posting 34 runs and Pittsburgh 35 in their last five games, suggesting good offensive outp...

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Spread

Consensus
Boston Red Sox -1.5 4/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 55% Boston Red Sox -1.5

Boston's 5-game win streak and elite run differential (+24) support a multi-run road victory. While PNC Park's pitcher-friendly environment...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 54% Boston Red Sox -1.5

I expect a close game but give Boston a modest edge to win by multiple runs because Sandoval tends to limit early damage and Boston's lineup...

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🔍 researched 9 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Boston Red Sox

The Red Sox's recent form and offensive output suggest they are likely to win by at least two runs. While the Pirates have been competitive,...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 54% Boston Red Sox

Red Sox superior recent form and rest differential support covering a modest run line. Pirates home record shows vulnerability against stron...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% Boston Red Sox -1.5

Boston's dominant recent form, highlighted by their five consecutive wins and a significant run differential of +24 over the last five games...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% Boston Red Sox

Given the Red Sox's strong recent form and offensive output, they are favored to win by more than one run. Their ability to consistently sco...

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4 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 50% Boston Red Sox -1.5

Given the Red Sox's superior form and offensive output, they are likely to win by a margin, but baseball games are inherently close, making...

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First 5 innings

Consensus
Boston Red Sox 6/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 60% Under 4.5

Early innings at PNC Park, especially in August heat, typically see slower run environments as both teams' starters build into the game. Bos...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 60% Boston Red Sox

First-five innings favor the starter matchup — Sandoval has shown the ability to eat early frames since his activation (regularly reaching t...

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🔍 researched 9 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% Boston Red Sox

The Red Sox's strong recent form and offensive performance suggest they are likely to lead after the first five innings. Their ability to sc...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 53% Boston Red Sox

Early-game starter matchups historically tilt toward the stronger rotation, favoring Boston. Lineup handedness and PNC dimensions suppress h...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% Boston Red Sox

Boston's overall superior form and strong performance in recent games make them likely to establish an early lead or maintain parity through...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 58% Boston Red Sox

The Red Sox have been starting games strongly, consistently scoring in the early innings due to their hot bats. The Pirates' recent inconsis...

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4 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Boston Red Sox

Starting pitchers typically dominate early innings, and the Red Sox's starting rotation has been more reliable. Boston's offense tends to st...

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Model confidence

Conviction in pick · Match winner
GPT-4o Mini

GPT-4o Mini

Boston Red Sox

65
Claude Haiku 4.5

Claude Haiku 4.5

Boston Red Sox

62
GPT-5 Mini

GPT-5 Mini

Boston Red Sox

62
Gemini 2.5 Flash

Gemini 2.5 Flash

Boston Red Sox

60
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Boston Red Sox

60
DeepSeek V3

DeepSeek V3

Boston Red Sox

58
Grok 4 Fast

Grok 4 Fast

Boston Red Sox

57

Model track records

Lifetime

Every graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.

GPT-5
GPT-5 145–91 · 61%
+67.5u
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.8 154–115 · 57%
-17.4u
GPT-4o Mini
GPT-4o Mini 1056–802 · 57%
-605.9u
GPT-5 Mini
GPT-5 Mini 692–586 · 54%
-365.1u
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro 130–112 · 54%
+111.8u
o4-mini
o4-mini 90–78 · 54%
+69.7u
Claude Opus 4.6
Claude Opus 4.6 193–173 · 53%
-47.6u
Grok 4.3
Grok 4.3 132–124 · 52%
+93.6u
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7 183–176 · 51%
-63.5u
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash 1130–1110 · 50%
-924.7u
Grok 4 Fast
Grok 4 Fast 741–743 · 50%
-501.5u
DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3 1083–1112 · 49%
-803.4u
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Claude Sonnet 4.6 459–482 · 49%
-323.7u
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 876–930 · 49%
-728.8u
Claude Haiku 4.5
Claude Haiku 4.5 1018–1093 · 48%
-930.0u
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro 151–179 · 46%
-73.8u

Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.

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Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: 6637b113d877f8e9…
Kickoff
Sun, Aug 16 · 17:35 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 24713,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": "PNC Park",
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-08-16T17:35:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Sun, 16 Aug 2026 17:35:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Boston Red Sox",
        "home": "Pittsburgh Pirates"
    },
    "version": "v2",
    "sport_focus": [
        "The starting-pitcher matchup is the single biggest factor — compare each starter's recent form, not just season ERA.",
        "Bullpen rest and usage over the last few days drives late-game and total outcomes.",
        "Ballpark factors matter: dimensions, altitude (e.g. Coors), and especially wind direction (out = more runs, in = fewer).",
        "Lineup handedness vs the opposing starter (L/R platoon splits) shifts the run expectation.",
        "Weather (wind, temperature, humidity) measurably affects carry and totals."
    ],
    "team_context": {
        "note": "Reference data from our settled-results database. Verify + extend it with your own research; it is not a substitute for current team news.",
        "away_form": {
            "last": "WWWWW",
            "record": "5W-0D-0L",
            "scored": 34,
            "matches": 5,
            "conceded": 10
        },
        "home_form": {
            "last": "LWWWL",
            "record": "3W-0D-2L",
            "scored": 35,
            "matches": 5,
            "conceded": 22
        },
        "rest_days": {
            "away": 24,
            "home": 38
        }
    },
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro

Results settle automatically once the final score lands. Picks are permanent — no hindsight edits.

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

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