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MLB
Upcoming · in 86h 31m
Philadelphia Phillies logo

Philadelphia Phillies vs Pittsburgh Pirates

Pittsburgh Pirates logo

Kickoff · Tue, Jun 30 · 22:40 GMT+0000

Picks locked at Jun 27 · 05:45 GMT+0000 20 picks recorded
Chat with the AIs about this match Pick the frontier models — Claude, GPT-5, Gemini, Grok & more — and watch them answer side by side, live, on the same brief.

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: 85bb648eac265c22…
Kickoff
Tue, Jun 30 · 22:40 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 7797,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-06-30T22:40:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Tue, 30 Jun 2026 22:40:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Pittsburgh Pirates",
        "home": "Philadelphia Phillies"
    },
    "version": "v1",
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Your call

Who wins? One tap, no signup.

AI predictions

4 markets · 5 models picked

Who picked what

16 models × 4 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Match winner

Consensus
Philadelphia Phillies 4/5
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 58% Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies are a stronger franchise with superior recent performance historically and typically field a more competitive roster than the P...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Pittsburgh Pirates

The Philadelphia Phillies have a strong home record, but the Pittsburgh Pirates have been performing well recently, winning 3 of their last...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 62% Philadelphia Phillies

Phillies maintain superior roster depth and pitching staff compared to Pirates based on training data through 2025. Home advantage at Citize...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 65% Philadelphia Phillies

Based on historical team performance and typical MLB dynamics, the Philadelphia Phillies are generally a stronger contender, especially when...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite —
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 58% Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies are a stronger team overall with a deeper lineup, especially at home. The Pirates are rebuilding and have inconsistent pitching...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Over / Under

Consensus
Over 8.5 3/5
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 54% Over 8.5

MLB games in late June typically feature moderate run scoring; both the Phillies and Pirates have produced mixed offensive output historical...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% over

Both teams have shown offensive capabilities, with the Pirates averaging 5 runs per game and the Phillies averaging 4.1 runs per game. Given...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 55% over

Offensive matchups favor higher scoring with Phillies lineup strength. Historical games between these teams trend slightly over average tota...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% Over 8.5

Given the Philadelphia Phillies' historically potent offense and the potential for Citizens Bank Park to be a hitter-friendly venue, the 'Ov...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite —
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 52% Over 8.5

Both bullpens have been unreliable, and the game is in a hitter-friendly ballpark. Expect moderate scoring with a slight lean to the over.

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Spread

Consensus
Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 3/5
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 55% Philadelphia Phillies -1.5

The Phillies' stronger historical roster and home-field advantage support a modest run-line edge. A -1.5 spread is typical for a favored tea...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Pittsburgh Pirates

Considering the Pirates' recent form and the Phillies' inconsistency, the Pirates are likely to cover the -1 spread, indicating a potential...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 59% Philadelphia Phillies

Phillies are the stronger side and expected to cover typical run-line spreads at home. Pirates bullpen vulnerabilities increase late-game de...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 58% Philadelphia Phillies -1.5

Assuming the Phillies are favored, a -1.5 run line win is plausible given their historical strength, particularly at home against the Pirate...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite —
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 45% Philadelphia Phillies -1.5

Phillies are expected to win, but covering -1.5 is not a sure thing as games are often close. The Pirates have some fight but likely fall sh...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

First 5 innings

Consensus
Philadelphia Phillies 4/5
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 56% Philadelphia Phillies

In early-game contexts, the Phillies' stronger lineup and likely superior opening-inning starter give them an edge in the first five frames....

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pirates have shown strong performances in the early innings, which may give them an advantage in the first five innings of the game.

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 57% Philadelphia Phillies

Starting pitcher advantage and early lineup order favor Phillies in the opening innings. Pirates have struggled against quality early pitchi...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 60% Philadelphia Phillies

The Philadelphia Phillies typically boast a stronger starting rotation and more consistent offense, especially in the early innings when pla...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite —
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies' starting rotation is more reliable than the Pirates', and they have the home advantage. Expect them to lead early.

Unlock reasoning · Pro

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Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro
  • Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini
    4 tool calls · 4 sources

    4 citations captured — unlock with Pro

  • Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

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