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MLB
Final 7–11
Philadelphia Phillies logo

Philadelphia PhilliesvsPittsburgh Pirates

Pittsburgh Pirates logo
Chat with the AIs Ask why they picked — live
Final7–11 Locked 28picks · 17 graded
Recap Consensus missed

Philadelphia Phillies 7–11 Pittsburgh Pirates

6 of 7 AIs leaned Philadelphia Phillies — reality had other ideas.

AI lean
Philadelphia Phillies 6/7
Correct calls
1/7
Final
7–11

Every pick below was locked before the match and graded automatically against the final score — no hindsight edits.

AI predictions

Ask the AIs

Who picked what

16 models × 4 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Spread

Consensus
Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 4/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 52% Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 L

Phillies roster talent and home field suggest a modest edge, making a 1.5-run spread reasonable. However, without current pitching matchups...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 52% Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 L

A Phillies -1.5 (winning by 2+ runs) is plausible because Nola should keep the game close through his typical outing and the home lineup has...

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🔍 researched 6 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% Philadelphia Phillies L

The Phillies' strong home performance and the Pirates' struggles on the road suggest a potential for a comfortable home victory, covering th...

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🔍 researched 5 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 51% home_ -1.5

Phillies bullpen and starters give them a consistent edge at home. Pirates road performance has lagged. Training data through 2025-09 suppor...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 58% Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 L

Given the Phillies' historical advantage in talent and depth over the Pirates, they are often capable of winning by multiple runs. A -1.5 ru...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 53% Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pittsburgh Pirates are often underdogs, and while the Phillies are favored, the spread is likely to be close. The Pirates have shown an...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 40% Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 L

The Phillies are expected to win, but covering a -1.5 run line requires winning by at least 2 runs. While they have a better team, one-run g...

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Match winner

Consensus
Philadelphia Phillies 6/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 58% Philadelphia Phillies L

The Phillies are a stronger franchise with superior recent-year performance and deeper roster talent than the Pirates. Without live access t...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 62% Philadelphia Phillies L

Aaron Nola at home against Braxton Ashcraft gives Philadelphia the edge: Nola is the veteran frontline starter while Ashcraft, despite stron...

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🔍 researched 6 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 65% Philadelphia Phillies L

The Philadelphia Phillies have a strong home record and have been performing well recently, while the Pittsburgh Pirates have struggled on t...

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🔍 researched 5 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 62% Philadelphia Phillies L

Philadelphia has been the stronger club in recent seasons with better pitching depth and offense. Pittsburgh continues to struggle with cons...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 68% Philadelphia Phillies L

Historically, the Philadelphia Phillies have been a more consistently competitive team in MLB compared to the Pittsburgh Pirates. They often...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% Pittsburgh Pirates W

Based on general MLB team performance trends, the Philadelphia Phillies are a stronger team than the Pittsburgh Pirates. While specific rece...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 58% Philadelphia Phillies L

Based on training data through mid-2025, the Phillies have a stronger roster and home-field advantage at Citizens Bank Park. The Pirates are...

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Over / Under

Consensus
over 4/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 54% Over 8.5 W

MLB games in late June typically feature elevated run production due to warm weather and settled pitching rotations. Both franchises have mi...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 58% over W

Park/weather and matchup point toward a higher run game: Citizens Bank Park boosts offense, and the forecast is warm with a light crosswind...

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🔍 researched 6 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% over W

Both teams have shown offensive capabilities in recent games, and the weather forecast suggests favorable conditions for hitting, which coul...

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🔍 researched 5 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 53% over

Both teams feature lineups capable of scoring in bunches. Summer weather at the Phillies park tends to favor hitters. Training data through...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% Over 8.5 W

The Philadelphia Phillies offense typically performs well, especially at home, contributing significantly to run production. While the Pirat...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 52% over

Given the Phillies' strong home offense and the Pirates' tendency to be involved in higher-scoring games on the road, the total score is lik...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 75% Over 2.5 W

MLB games average roughly 9 runs per game, making the total over 2.5 very likely. The Phillies have a strong lineup, and even with the Pirat...

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First 5 innings

Consensus
Philadelphia Phillies 6/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 55% Philadelphia Phillies

Early-inning results often reflect starting pitcher quality and top-of-lineup strength. Phillies typically field stronger offensive talent;...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 60% Philadelphia Phillies

First-five innings favors the Phillies because Aaron Nola generally eats innings and reduces runs allowed early, while Ashcraft can give up...

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🔍 researched 6 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies have been strong starters at home, often leading after the first five innings, while the Pirates have struggled early in games...

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🔍 researched 5 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 58% Philadelphia Phillies

Early game advantage goes to the home side with stronger top of the order and starting pitching. Pirates have shown slow starts on the road...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 65% Philadelphia Phillies

The first five innings often heavily reflect the strength of the starting pitchers and early offensive execution. The Phillies typically fie...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 54% Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pittsburgh Pirates have shown a tendency to start games strong, particularly against teams with strong pitching, by scoring early. The P...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies' starting rotation is generally stronger than the Pirates', and home teams have a slight edge in first five innings. However, w...

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Model confidence

Conviction in pick · Match winner
Gemini 2.5 Flash

Gemini 2.5 Flash

Philadelphia Phillies

68
GPT-4o Mini

GPT-4o Mini

Philadelphia Phillies

65
GPT-5 Mini

GPT-5 Mini

Philadelphia Phillies

62
Grok 4 Fast

Grok 4 Fast

Philadelphia Phillies

62
Claude Haiku 4.5

Claude Haiku 4.5

Philadelphia Phillies

58
DeepSeek V3

DeepSeek V3

Philadelphia Phillies

58
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Pittsburgh Pirates

55

Model track records

Lifetime

Every graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.

GPT-5
GPT-5 145–91 · 61%
+67.5u
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.8 154–115 · 57%
-17.4u
GPT-4o Mini
GPT-4o Mini 1056–802 · 57%
-605.9u
GPT-5 Mini
GPT-5 Mini 692–586 · 54%
-365.1u
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro 130–112 · 54%
+111.8u
o4-mini
o4-mini 90–78 · 54%
+69.7u
Claude Opus 4.6
Claude Opus 4.6 193–173 · 53%
-47.6u
Grok 4.3
Grok 4.3 132–124 · 52%
+93.6u
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7 183–176 · 51%
-63.5u
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash 1130–1110 · 50%
-924.7u
Grok 4 Fast
Grok 4 Fast 741–743 · 50%
-501.5u
DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3 1039–1061 · 49%
-752.4u
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Claude Sonnet 4.6 459–482 · 49%
-323.7u
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 876–930 · 49%
-728.8u
Claude Haiku 4.5
Claude Haiku 4.5 1018–1093 · 48%
-930.0u
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro 151–179 · 46%
-73.8u

Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: 46d504bd96683375…
Kickoff
Mon, Jun 29 · 22:40 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 7653,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-06-29T22:40:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Mon, 29 Jun 2026 22:40:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Pittsburgh Pirates",
        "home": "Philadelphia Phillies"
    },
    "version": "v1",
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

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