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MLB
Upcoming · in 86h 32m
Philadelphia Phillies logo

Philadelphia Phillies vs Pittsburgh Pirates

Pittsburgh Pirates logo

Kickoff · Mon, Jun 29 · 22:40 GMT+0000

Picks locked at Jun 26 · 05:49 GMT+0000 20 picks recorded
Chat with the AIs about this match Pick the frontier models — Claude, GPT-5, Gemini, Grok & more — and watch them answer side by side, live, on the same brief.

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: 46d504bd96683375…
Kickoff
Mon, Jun 29 · 22:40 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 7653,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-06-29T22:40:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Mon, 29 Jun 2026 22:40:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Pittsburgh Pirates",
        "home": "Philadelphia Phillies"
    },
    "version": "v1",
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Your call

Who wins? One tap, no signup.

AI predictions

4 markets · 5 models picked

Who picked what

16 models × 4 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Match winner

Consensus
Philadelphia Phillies 5/5
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 58% Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies are a stronger franchise with superior recent-year performance and deeper roster talent than the Pirates. Without live access t...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 65% Philadelphia Phillies

The Philadelphia Phillies have a strong home record and have been performing well recently, while the Pittsburgh Pirates have struggled on t...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 5 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 62% Philadelphia Phillies

Philadelphia has been the stronger club in recent seasons with better pitching depth and offense. Pittsburgh continues to struggle with cons...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 68% Philadelphia Phillies

Historically, the Philadelphia Phillies have been a more consistently competitive team in MLB compared to the Pittsburgh Pirates. They often...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite —
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 58% Philadelphia Phillies

Based on training data through mid-2025, the Phillies have a stronger roster and home-field advantage at Citizens Bank Park. The Pirates are...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Over / Under

Consensus
Over 8.5 2/5
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 54% Over 8.5

MLB games in late June typically feature elevated run production due to warm weather and settled pitching rotations. Both franchises have mi...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% over

Both teams have shown offensive capabilities in recent games, and the weather forecast suggests favorable conditions for hitting, which coul...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 5 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 53% over

Both teams feature lineups capable of scoring in bunches. Summer weather at the Phillies park tends to favor hitters. Training data through...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% Over 8.5

The Philadelphia Phillies offense typically performs well, especially at home, contributing significantly to run production. While the Pirat...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite —
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 75% Over 2.5

MLB games average roughly 9 runs per game, making the total over 2.5 very likely. The Phillies have a strong lineup, and even with the Pirat...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Spread

Consensus
Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 3/5
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 52% Philadelphia Phillies -1.5

Phillies roster talent and home field suggest a modest edge, making a 1.5-run spread reasonable. However, without current pitching matchups...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies' strong home performance and the Pirates' struggles on the road suggest a potential for a comfortable home victory, covering th...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 5 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 51% home_ -1.5

Phillies bullpen and starters give them a consistent edge at home. Pirates road performance has lagged. Training data through 2025-09 suppor...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 58% Philadelphia Phillies -1.5

Given the Phillies' historical advantage in talent and depth over the Pirates, they are often capable of winning by multiple runs. A -1.5 ru...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite —
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 40% Philadelphia Phillies -1.5

The Phillies are expected to win, but covering a -1.5 run line requires winning by at least 2 runs. While they have a better team, one-run g...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

First 5 innings

Consensus
Philadelphia Phillies 5/5
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 55% Philadelphia Phillies

Early-inning results often reflect starting pitcher quality and top-of-lineup strength. Phillies typically field stronger offensive talent;...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies have been strong starters at home, often leading after the first five innings, while the Pirates have struggled early in games...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 5 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 58% Philadelphia Phillies

Early game advantage goes to the home side with stronger top of the order and starting pitching. Pirates have shown slow starts on the road...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 65% Philadelphia Phillies

The first five innings often heavily reflect the strength of the starting pitchers and early offensive execution. The Phillies typically fie...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite —
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies' starting rotation is generally stronger than the Pirates', and home teams have a slight edge in first five innings. However, w...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Pro on-demand

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Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro
  • Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini
    4 tool calls · 5 sources

    5 citations captured — unlock with Pro

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