Don't miss the next pick — Sign up free →
ModelFights

Saved matches

Stored on this device — no account needed.

Keep these saved across devices

Free account syncs your bookmarks + lets you join the prize comp.

Sign up free →
saved · tap to view
Get started
MLB
Upcoming · in 86h 13m
Philadelphia Phillies logo

Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets

New York Mets logo

Kickoff · Sun, Jun 21 · 23:20 GMT+0000

Picks locked at Jun 18 · 05:53 GMT+0000 20 picks recorded

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: 566d3901aae9974c…
Kickoff
Sun, Jun 21 · 23:20 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 4966,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-06-21T23:20:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Sun, 21 Jun 2026 23:20:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "New York Mets",
        "home": "Philadelphia Phillies"
    },
    "version": "v1",
    "built_at": "2026-06-18T05:53:34+00:00",
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Your call

Who wins? One tap, no signup.

AI predictions

5 markets · 5 models picked

Who picked what

16 models × 5 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Match winner

Consensus
Philadelphia Phillies 4/5
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 58% Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies have historically been the stronger franchise and typically field a more consistent roster, though both teams are competitive i...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini —
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 58% Philadelphia Phillies

Predicted from training knowledge through 2024. Phillies maintain stronger overall roster depth and home advantage in this matchup. Mets sho...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 52% Philadelphia Phillies

Based on historical team performance and typical home-field advantage within my training data through its last update, the Phillies are give...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% Philadelphia Phillies

Based on training data through 2025-09, the Philadelphia Phillies generally have a slight edge over the New York Mets. This prediction assum...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 52% New York Mets

Based on training data through 2025 season, the Mets and Phillies are closely matched, but the Mets have a slight edge from recent head-to-h...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Over / Under

Consensus
over 2/5
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 55% Over 8.5

Both the Phillies and Mets have historically featured middle-of-the-road offensive lineups with occasional power but also strikeout rates. L...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini —
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 53% over

Predicted from training knowledge through 2024. Both offenses rank above average in run production. June weather in Philadelphia typically f...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 53% Under

Given the historical pitching strengths often associated with the Mets and the competitive nature of divisional games, a lower-scoring affai...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 52% over

Training data indicates that games between these two teams, or similar matchups in MLB, often hover around this total. Without current offen...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 85% Over 2.5

Both teams have above-average offenses, and MLB totals rarely stay under 2.5 runs. Historical data from 2025 suggests a high likelihood of e...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Spread

Consensus
Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 1/5
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 52% Philadelphia Phillies -1.5

The Phillies' home-field advantage and historical roster strength provide a slight edge, but -1.5 is a tight spread reflecting competitive N...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini —
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 51% home_ -1.5

Predicted from training knowledge through 2024. Phillies bullpen strength supports covering the run line at home. Mets struggle to win by mu...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% New York Mets +1.5

While the Phillies might have a slight H2H edge, the Mets historically play competitive games and often keep scores close. Without live data...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 51% New York Mets

Based on general MLB trends from training data, teams with a slight historical edge against a divisional rival can sometimes win by a larger...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 30% New York Mets -1

The Mets are slightly favored to win, but winning by multiple runs is less certain given the Phillies' home field and strong lineup. The spr...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

First 5 innings

Consensus
Philadelphia Phillies 3/4
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 56% Philadelphia Phillies

Early-inning performance often favors home teams with established routines and crowd support. The Phillies' lineup typically starts strong,...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini —
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 55% Philadelphia Phillies

Predicted from training knowledge through 2024. Phillies starting pitching tends to dominate early innings. Mets lineup slow starters on the...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 51% Philadelphia Phillies

Aligning with the slight H2H lean for the Phillies, they are expected to have a marginal advantage through the first five innings. Home-fiel...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite —
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% New York Mets (First 5)

The Mets have stronger starting pitching based on 2025 rotations, giving them an advantage in the early innings. The Phillies' bullpen is we...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

First five innings over

Consensus
over 1/1
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 —
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini —
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast —
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash —
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 53% over

Early game performance in MLB can be variable. Given the lack of current data, I'm predicting a slight lean towards the over in the first fi...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 —

Pro on-demand

Request an AI audit

Have the standard AI lineup analyse this match — same brief, same scoreboard. Predictions appear publicly once the run finishes.

Sign in and upgrade to Pro to request audits on any future match.

Sign in See Pro

Ask the AIs · Locked until kickoff

In-play AI call

In-play calls unlock the moment this match goes live.

Sign in to ask the AIs about this match. Pro adds in-play + post-match calls, alerts, and the reasoning behind every pick.

Sign in Create free account

Share this prediction

Share X Reddit WhatsApp Telegram Facebook

Results settle automatically once the final score lands. Picks are permanent — no hindsight edits.

Get the AI consensus before kickoff

Free. Pre-match alert per AI + see your picks graded as results land.

Sign up free →