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MLB
Upcoming · in 35h 25m
Philadelphia Phillies logo

Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets

New York Mets logo

Kickoff · Sat, Jun 20 · 23:15 GMT+0000

Picks locked at Jun 17 · 05:55 GMT+0000 24 picks recorded

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: 99011378cea2d3fb…
Kickoff
Sat, Jun 20 · 23:15 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 4430,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-06-20T23:15:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Sat, 20 Jun 2026 23:15:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "New York Mets",
        "home": "Philadelphia Phillies"
    },
    "version": "v1",
    "built_at": "2026-06-17T05:55:01+00:00",
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Your call

Who wins? One tap, no signup.

AI predictions

4 markets · 6 models picked

Who picked what

16 models × 4 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Match winner

Consensus
Philadelphia Phillies 4/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 58% Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies are a stronger franchise with better recent postseason pedigree and deeper roster depth as of my last training data (September...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 65% Philadelphia Phillies

The Philadelphia Phillies have a strong home record and have been performing well recently, while the New York Mets have struggled on the ro...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 58% Philadelphia Phillies

Phillies hold home advantage and stronger overall roster depth from 2025 form. Mets show inconsistency on the road in recent seasons. Traini...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% Philadelphia Phillies

Based on historical team performance and the inherent home-field advantage in MLB, the Philadelphia Phillies are slightly favored in this ma...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% New York Mets

Based on training data through early 2026, the Mets have shown a slight edge over the Phillies in head-to-head matchups in recent years. Whi...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% New York Mets

Relying on training data through 2025, the Mets and Phillies are evenly matched, but the Mets have a slight edge in recent head-to-head perf...

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Over / Under

Consensus
Over 8.5 3/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 55% Over 8.5

NL East matchups between competitive teams like the Phillies and Mets tend to produce moderate offensive output. Without current lineup data...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% under

Both teams have been involved in games with low scoring recently, and the starting pitchers are expected to perform well, leading to a lower...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 52% over

Both offenses capable of putting runs on the board in summer conditions. Pitching matchups historically allow average to above scoring in Ph...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 52% Over 8.5

Both the New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies typically feature potent offenses, leading to expectations of a relatively high-scoring gam...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 60% over

Given the offensive capabilities of both teams and the tendency for these divisional matchups to be high-scoring affairs, the total runs are...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 60% Over 8.5

Both teams have above-average offenses and inconsistent bullpens in training data. Games between the Phillies and Mets often exceed the tota...

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Spread

Consensus
Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 2/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 52% Philadelphia Phillies -1.5

A 1.5-run spread favoring the Phillies aligns with their slight competitive edge based on franchise strength and recent competitive history....

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies have been dominant at home, and the Mets have struggled on the road, making the Phillies likely to cover the spread.

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 51% Philadelphia Phillies -1.5

Narrow edge to Phillies run line given home field and bullpen strength. Mets struggle to cover on road against quality starters. Training da...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 53% New York Mets +1.5

While the Phillies are slightly favored to win, games between division rivals like the Mets and Phillies are often tightly contested. The Me...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 52% New York Mets

While the Mets are slightly favored in the head-to-head, the spread of -1 suggests a close game. Given the slight historical advantage and p...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 30% New York Mets -1.5

The teams are closely matched, making a run-line bet on the Mets risky. In training data, the Mets margin of victory is often small, or they...

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First 5 innings

Consensus
Philadelphia Phillies 3/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 54% Under 4.5

Early-inning totals in baseball tend to skew slightly lower than full-game totals due to bullpen quality, early offensive rhythm, and the na...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies have been strong early in games, and the Mets have struggled to score early, favoring the Phillies in the first five innings.

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 55% Philadelphia Phillies

Early game edge to home side with presumed top rotation arm. Mets lineup slow starters on the road historically. Training data through 2025-...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 53% Philadelphia Phillies

The Philadelphia Phillies are predicted to hold an advantage through the first five innings, benefiting from their home-field advantage and...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 58% New York Mets

The Mets' strong starting pitchers often perform well in the early innings, limiting opponents' scoring. This, combined with the Mets' abili...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% New York Mets

The first five innings often favor the team with stronger starting pitching. In training data, the Mets starters have a slight edge over the...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

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Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro
  • Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini
    4 tool calls · 3 sources

    3 citations captured — unlock with Pro

  • Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

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