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MLB
Final 4–12
Philadelphia Phillies logo

Philadelphia PhilliesvsMiami Marlins

Miami Marlins logo
Chat with the AIs Ask why they picked — live
Final4–12 Locked 28picks · 16 graded
Recap Consensus missed

Philadelphia Phillies 4–12 Miami Marlins

All 7 AIs backed Philadelphia Phillies — reality had other ideas.

AI lean
Philadelphia Phillies 7/7
Correct calls
0/7
Final
4–12

Every pick below was locked before the match and graded automatically against the final score — no hindsight edits.

AI predictions

Ask the AIs

Who picked what

16 models × 4 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Spread

Consensus
Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 4/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 55% Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 L

The Phillies' home-field advantage and organizational strength support a modest spread edge. A -1.5 line reflects the Phillies as favorites...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% Philadelphia Phillies L

The Phillies' home advantage and recent form suggest they are likely to cover the -1 spread. Their 7-3 record in the last 10 games and the M...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 64% Philadelphia Phillies

Philadelphia's superior talent projects to cover a typical run-line spread at home. Marlins struggle on the road against quality pitching. T...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 56% Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 L

Given the Philadelphia Phillies' historical strength and home-field advantage against the Miami Marlins, they are often capable of winning b...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 52% Miami Marlins W

Given the slight perceived advantage for the Phillies in head-to-head matchups, a spread of -1.5 makes it more likely for the Marlins to cov...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 48% Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 L

The Phillies are the better team but the -1.5 run line is risky as games are often close. The Marlins have been competitive in many losses....

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Match winner

Consensus
Philadelphia Phillies 7/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 58% Philadelphia Phillies L

The Phillies are a stronger franchise with more consistent roster depth and have historically dominated the Marlins in head-to-head matchups...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 65% Philadelphia Phillies L

The Philadelphia Phillies have a strong home record of 18-17 and have won 7 of their last 10 games, indicating good form. The Miami Marlins...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 68% Philadelphia Phillies L

Phillies have been the stronger club in recent seasons with better pitching depth and offense. Marlins remain rebuilding with weaker overall...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 62% Philadelphia Phillies L

Based on historical performance trends from my training data through early 2025, the Philadelphia Phillies are generally the stronger team,...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 58% Philadelphia Phillies L

Based on my training data, the Philadelphia Phillies generally have a stronger historical performance than the Miami Marlins. While specific...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 65% Philadelphia Phillies L

The Phillies have a stronger roster and typically outperform the Marlins at home. Recent form favors Philadelphia, especially with their lin...

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First 5 innings

Consensus
Philadelphia Phillies 5/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 52% Over 4.5 (first five innings)

Early-game scoring in divisional matchups tends to be moderately paced; neither team typically dominates the first five innings defensively....

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies' strong home performance and the Marlins' struggles on the road suggest the Phillies are likely to lead after the first five in...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 61% Philadelphia Phillies

Early game advantage rests with the Phillies starter and home offense. Marlins have shown slow starts on the road historically. Training dat...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 58% Philadelphia Phillies

The outcome of the first five innings heavily relies on starting pitching, which is unknown for this future game date. However, based on gen...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 54% over

Historically, games often see a significant portion of scoring in the first five innings, especially without knowing the starting pitchers'...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 57% Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies' starting pitcher is expected to be more effective early, and their offense typically scores in the first few innings. The Marl...

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Over / Under

Consensus
over 4/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 54% Over 8.5

Both teams typically field competitive offenses in mid-season form. The Phillies' lineup has historically been prolific, and Miami's young r...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% over W

Both teams have shown moderate offensive capabilities, with the Marlins averaging 4.2 runs per game and the Phillies averaging 3.9 runs per...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 53% over

Typical MLB run environment favors slight lean to over. Both teams feature lineups capable of producing runs especially in summer conditions...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 53% Over 8.5 W

Assuming a standard total line of 8.5 for this MLB game, the Phillies' strong offense historically points towards a higher-scoring affair, e...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% over W

Without current pitching matchups or recent offensive trends, predicting totals is challenging. However, MLB games, on average, tend to go o...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 52% Over 8.5

Both teams have had average offensive numbers, but the Marlins' bullpen is weak, and the Phillies can put up runs at home. However, starting...

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Model confidence

Conviction in pick · Match winner
Grok 4 Fast

Grok 4 Fast

Philadelphia Phillies

68
Claude Sonnet 4.6

Claude Sonnet 4.6

Philadelphia Phillies

67
GPT-4o Mini

GPT-4o Mini

Philadelphia Phillies

65
DeepSeek V3

DeepSeek V3

Philadelphia Phillies

65
Gemini 2.5 Flash

Gemini 2.5 Flash

Philadelphia Phillies

62
Claude Haiku 4.5

Claude Haiku 4.5

Philadelphia Phillies

58
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Philadelphia Phillies

58

Model track records

Lifetime

Every graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.

GPT-5
GPT-5 145–91 · 61%
+67.5u
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.8 154–115 · 57%
-17.4u
GPT-4o Mini
GPT-4o Mini 1056–799 · 57%
-602.9u
GPT-5 Mini
GPT-5 Mini 690–586 · 54%
-365.1u
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro 130–112 · 54%
+111.8u
o4-mini
o4-mini 90–78 · 54%
+69.7u
Claude Opus 4.6
Claude Opus 4.6 193–173 · 53%
-47.6u
Grok 4.3
Grok 4.3 132–124 · 52%
+93.6u
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7 183–176 · 51%
-63.5u
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash 1128–1109 · 50%
-923.7u
Grok 4 Fast
Grok 4 Fast 740–743 · 50%
-501.5u
DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3 1031–1055 · 49%
-746.4u
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Claude Sonnet 4.6 459–482 · 49%
-323.7u
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 876–927 · 49%
-725.8u
Claude Haiku 4.5
Claude Haiku 4.5 1017–1091 · 48%
-928.0u
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro 151–179 · 46%
-73.8u

Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: 07c5ac40033779ba…
Kickoff
Wed, Jun 17 · 17:05 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 2874,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-06-17T17:05:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Wed, 17 Jun 2026 17:05:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Miami Marlins",
        "home": "Philadelphia Phillies"
    },
    "version": "v1",
    "built_at": "2026-06-15T18:15:09+00:00",
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro
  • GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini
    4 tool calls · 4 sources

    4 citations captured — unlock with Pro

  • Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

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