Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins

Kickoff · Wed, Jun 17 · 17:05 GMT+0000

Picks locked at Jun 15 · 06:19 GMT+0000 24 picks recorded

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified


                    hash:
                    d36ef5cae240b45c…

Sport: Wed, Jun 17 · 17:05 GMT+0000
Markets: h2h · totals · spreads · first_five_innings
Source: The Odds API · live
Research: AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 2874,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-06-17T17:05:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Wed, 17 Jun 2026 17:05:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Miami Marlins",
        "home": "Philadelphia Phillies"
    },
    "version": "v1",
    "built_at": "2026-06-15T06:16:39+00:00",
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Your call

Who wins? One tap, no signup.

AI predictions

4 markets · 6 models picked

Who picked what

15 models × 4 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Unlock flagship models

Model	Match winner ?	Over / Under ?	Spread ?	First 5 innings ?
Claude Opus 4.7 Flagship Anthropic · 4-5 -1.2u	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Flagship Anthropic · 5-5 -0.3u	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Opus 4 Flagship Anthropic	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Flagship Anthropic · 125-128 -87.1u	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Anthropic · 168-149 -107.9u	58% Philadelphia Phillies	54% Over 8.5	55% Philadelphia Phillies -1.5	52% Over 4.5 (first five innings)
Match winner ? 58% Philadelphia Phillies The Phillies are a stronger franchise with more consistent roster depth and have historically dominated the Marlins in head-to-head matchups... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 54% Over 8.5 Both teams typically field competitive offenses in mid-season form. The Phillies' lineup has historically been prolific, and Miami's young r... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 55% Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 The Phillies' home-field advantage and organizational strength support a modest spread edge. A -1.5 line reflects the Phillies as favorites... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 52% Over 4.5 (first five innings) Early-game scoring in divisional matchups tends to be moderately paced; neither team typically dominates the first five innings defensively.... Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 Flagship Openai	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
GPT-5 Mini Openai · 30-17 +24.4u	—	—	—	—
Match winner ? No pick on this market. Over / Under ? No pick on this market. Spread ? No pick on this market. First 5 innings ? No pick on this market.
GPT-4o Mini Openai · 34-47 -25.2u	—	—	—	—
Match winner ? No pick on this market. Over / Under ? No pick on this market. Spread ? No pick on this market. First 5 innings ? No pick on this market.
o3 Flagship Openai	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Grok 4 Heavy Flagship Xai	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Grok 4 Fast Xai · 112-170 -91.3u	68% Philadelphia Phillies	53% over	64% Philadelphia Phillies	61% Philadelphia Phillies
Match winner ? 68% Philadelphia Phillies Phillies have been the stronger club in recent seasons with better pitching depth and offense. Marlins remain rebuilding with weaker overall... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 53% over Typical MLB run environment favors slight lean to over. Both teams feature lineups capable of producing runs especially in summer conditions... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 64% Philadelphia Phillies Philadelphia's superior talent projects to cover a typical run-line spread at home. Marlins struggle on the road against quality pitching. T... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 61% Philadelphia Phillies Early game advantage rests with the Phillies starter and home offense. Marlins have shown slow starts on the road historically. Training dat... Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Flagship Google · 4-7 -1.8u	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Google · 135-151 -121.4u	62% Philadelphia Phillies	53% Over 8.5	56% Philadelphia Phillies -1.5	58% Philadelphia Phillies
Match winner ? 62% Philadelphia Phillies Based on historical performance trends from my training data through early 2025, the Philadelphia Phillies are generally the stronger team,... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 53% Over 8.5 Assuming a standard total line of 8.5 for this MLB game, the Phillies' strong offense historically points towards a higher-scoring affair, e... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 56% Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 Given the Philadelphia Phillies' historical strength and home-field advantage against the Miami Marlins, they are often capable of winning b... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 58% Philadelphia Phillies The outcome of the first five innings heavily relies on starting pitching, which is unknown for this future game date. However, based on gen... Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Google · 65-141 -96.1u	58% Philadelphia Phillies	55% over	52% Miami Marlins	54% over
Match winner ? 58% Philadelphia Phillies Based on my training data, the Philadelphia Phillies generally have a stronger historical performance than the Miami Marlins. While specific... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 55% over Without current pitching matchups or recent offensive trends, predicting totals is challenging. However, MLB games, on average, tend to go o... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 52% Miami Marlins Given the slight perceived advantage for the Phillies in head-to-head matchups, a spread of -1.5 makes it more likely for the Marlins to cov... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 54% over Historically, games often see a significant portion of scoring in the first five innings, especially without knowing the starting pitchers'... Unlock reasoning · Pro
DeepSeek V3 Deepseek · 136-147 -106.2u	65% Philadelphia Phillies	52% Over 8.5	48% Philadelphia Phillies -1.5	57% Philadelphia Phillies
Match winner ? 65% Philadelphia Phillies The Phillies have a stronger roster and typically outperform the Marlins at home. Recent form favors Philadelphia, especially with their lin... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 52% Over 8.5 Both teams have had average offensive numbers, but the Marlins' bullpen is weak, and the Phillies can put up runs at home. However, starting... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 48% Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 The Phillies are the better team but the -1.5 run line is risky as games are often close. The Marlins have been competitive in many losses.... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 57% Philadelphia Phillies The Phillies' starting pitcher is expected to be more effective early, and their offense typically scores in the first few innings. The Marl... Unlock reasoning · Pro
Consensus	Philadelphia Phillies 6/6	Over 8.5 3/6	Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 4/6	Philadelphia Phillies 4/6