Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins

Kickoff · Mon, Jun 15 · 22:41 GMT+0000

Picks locked at Jun 14 · 18:49 GMT+0000 28 picks recorded

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified


                    hash:
                    709aa1c4c3942582…

Sport: Mon, Jun 15 · 22:41 GMT+0000
Markets: h2h · totals · spreads · first_five_innings
Source: The Odds API · live
Research: AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 5025,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-06-15T22:41:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Mon, 15 Jun 2026 22:41:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Miami Marlins",
        "home": "Philadelphia Phillies"
    },
    "version": "v1",
    "built_at": "2026-06-14T18:46:55+00:00",
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Your call

Who wins? One tap, no signup.

AI predictions

5 markets · 7 models picked

Who picked what

15 models × 5 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Unlock flagship models

Model	Over / Under ?	Spread ?	First 5 innings ?	Match winner ?	First five innings totals 5.5 ?
Claude Opus 4.7 Flagship Anthropic · 4-5 -1.2u	Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Flagship Anthropic · 5-5 -0.3u	Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Opus 4 Flagship Anthropic	Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Flagship Anthropic · 125-128 -87.1u	Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Anthropic · 168-149 -107.9u	56% Over 8.5	58% Philadelphia Phillies -1.5	60% Philadelphia Phillies	62% Philadelphia Phillies	—
Over / Under ? 56% Over 8.5 Both the Phillies and Marlins have moderate-to-strong offensive profiles, and June weather at Philadelphia typically favors scoring. The ove... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 58% Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 The Phillies' stronger roster and home-field advantage support a modest run-line edge. A 1.5-run spread is typical for a matchup where the f... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 60% Philadelphia Phillies Early-inning advantage typically correlates with overall team strength and starting pitcher quality. The Phillies' superior lineup depth giv... Unlock reasoning · Pro Match winner ? 62% Philadelphia Phillies The Phillies are a stronger franchise with better regular-season performance and depth than the Marlins in 2026. Philadelphia has consistent... Unlock reasoning · Pro First five innings totals 5.5 ? No pick on this market.
GPT-5 Flagship Openai	Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
GPT-5 Mini Openai · 30-17 +24.4u	—	—	—	—	—
Over / Under ? No pick on this market. Spread ? No pick on this market. First 5 innings ? No pick on this market. Match winner ? No pick on this market. First five innings totals 5.5 ? No pick on this market.
GPT-4o Mini Openai · 34-47 -25.2u	55% over	60% Philadelphia Phillies	55% Philadelphia Phillies	60% Philadelphia Phillies	—
Over / Under ? 55% over Both teams have shown variability in their recent performances, making the total runs scored unpredictable. ([baseball-reference.com](https:... Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched 4 sources cited Spread ? 60% Philadelphia Phillies The Phillies' home advantage and superior roster suggest they are likely to cover the -1 spread. ([polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/pl... Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched 4 sources cited First 5 innings ? 55% Philadelphia Phillies The Phillies' home advantage and superior roster suggest they are likely to lead after the first five innings. ([polymarket.com](https://pol... Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched 4 sources cited Match winner ? 60% Philadelphia Phillies The Phillies have a stronger overall record and greater pitching depth than the Marlins, factors reflected in current trader pricing. ([poly... Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched 4 sources cited First five innings totals 5.5 ? No pick on this market.
o3 Flagship Openai	Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Grok 4 Heavy Flagship Xai	Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Grok 4 Fast Xai · 112-170 -91.3u	54% over	62% home_-1.5	67% Philadelphia Phillies	71% Philadelphia Phillies	—
Over / Under ? 54% over Phillies offense tends to produce runs against weaker Marlins pitching staffs. June games in this matchup have trended slightly over the tot... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 62% home_-1.5 Philadelphia's starting rotation gives them a strong edge to win by multiple runs. Marlins struggle to keep games close against top NL East... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 67% Philadelphia Phillies Early game advantage goes to the Phillies with better top-of-lineup production and starting pitching. Marlins have shown slow starts in road... Unlock reasoning · Pro Match winner ? 71% Philadelphia Phillies Phillies have historically dominated the Marlins in recent seasons with superior pitching and offense. Marlins remain a rebuilding team with... Unlock reasoning · Pro First five innings totals 5.5 ? No pick on this market.
Gemini 2.5 Pro Flagship Google · 4-7 -1.8u	Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Google · 135-151 -121.4u	55% Over 8.5	58% Philadelphia Phillies -1.5	62% Philadelphia Phillies	65% Philadelphia Phillies	—
Over / Under ? 55% Over 8.5 Considering historical offensive capabilities within my training data through 2025-09, games involving the Phillies often trend towards high... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 58% Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 Drawing from my training data through 2025-09, when the Phillies secure a win against the Marlins, they often do so by more than one run, re... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 62% Philadelphia Phillies Based on my training data through 2025-09, the Phillies typically start games strong, especially when playing at home. Assuming their ace or... Unlock reasoning · Pro Match winner ? 65% Philadelphia Phillies Based on historical team performance and general strength trends within my training data through 2025-09, the Philadelphia Phillies are typi... Unlock reasoning · Pro First five innings totals 5.5 ? No pick on this market.
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Google · 65-141 -96.1u	52% over	51% Miami Marlins	—	55% Philadelphia Phillies	53% over
Over / Under ? 52% over MLB games, especially with average starting pitchers, tend to have a moderate number of runs scored. Without specific pitching matchups or r... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 51% Miami Marlins Given that bookmakers often set spreads around 1.5 runs in baseball, and without specific information on starting pitchers or team offenses,... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? No pick on this market. Match winner ? 55% Philadelphia Phillies Based on general historical performance data, the Philadelphia Phillies have typically held a competitive edge over the Miami Marlins. This... Unlock reasoning · Pro First five innings totals 5.5 ? 53% over In the early innings of a baseball game, offenses often have an advantage before pitchers fatigue or bullpens come into play. A total of 5.5... Unlock reasoning · Pro
DeepSeek V3 Deepseek · 136-147 -106.2u	53% under 9.5	60% away +1.5	55% Philadelphia Phillies	58% Philadelphia Phillies	—
Over / Under ? 53% under 9.5 Both teams rank near league average in runs scored, but Nola is a groundball pitcher and Citizens Bank Park plays neutral. Under is slight l... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 60% away +1.5 Even if Phillies win, Marlins are live underdogs covering +1.5. Nola has minor platoon splits; Marlins' bullpen has been serviceable. The sp... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 55% Philadelphia Phillies Starting pitching favors Phillies with Nola. Marlins' projected starter (likely a mid-rotation arm) gives edge to Phils early. Home bullpen... Unlock reasoning · Pro Match winner ? 58% Philadelphia Phillies Phillies have a strong home advantage and a deeper lineup, projected to start ace Aaron Nola. Marlins are in a rebuilding phase with inconsi... Unlock reasoning · Pro First five innings totals 5.5 ? No pick on this market.
Consensus	over 3/7	Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 3/7	Philadelphia Phillies 5/6	Philadelphia Phillies 7/7	over 1/1

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Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro

Claude Haiku 4.5
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
Claude Sonnet 4.6
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
Grok 4 Fast
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
GPT-4o Mini
4 tool calls · 4 sources

4 citations captured — unlock with Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
Gemini 2.5 Flash
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
DeepSeek V3
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

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