Football
FIFA World Cup
Upcoming · in 234h 42m
New Zealand vs Belgium
Kickoff · Sat, Jun 27 · 03:00 GMT+0000
Verifiable brief
Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified
hash:
b465c82cd9a0615b…
- Kickoff
- Sat, Jun 27 · 03:00 GMT+0000
- Markets
- Match winner · Over / Under 2.5 · Both teams to score · Spread -1 · Asian handicap · Half-time / Full-time · Correct score
- Odds
- 15+ live books
- Research
- AIs self-source
System instruction
You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.
You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.
Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
`predictions` array length MUST equal 7. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
"0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.
Required markets (return ALL 7, in this order): h2h | totals_2.5 | btts | spreads_-1 | asian_handicap | ht_ft | correct_score
Output schema:
{
"used_research_tools": true | false,
"sources_cited": [
{ "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
],
"predictions": [
{
"market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
"pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
"confidence": 0.0,
"probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
"reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
"signals": [
{ "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
"label": "Short fact in plain text.",
"lean": "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
],
"tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
}
]
}
User brief (JSON)
{
"version": "v1",
"built_at": "2026-06-17T08:17:28+00:00",
"event": {
"id": 415,
"sport": "football",
"league": "FIFA World Cup",
"starts_at": "2026-06-27T03:00:00+00:00",
"starts_at_human": "Sat, 27 Jun 2026 03:00:00 GMT",
"venue": null
},
"teams": {
"home": "New Zealand",
"away": "Belgium"
},
"market_consensus": {
"h2h": {
"home": 11,
"draw": 6,
"away": 1.32
},
"extra_markets": {
"totals": [
{
"point": 2.5,
"outcome": "Under",
"price": 2.12
},
{
"point": 2.5,
"outcome": "Over",
"price": 1.63
},
{
"point": 2.75,
"outcome": "Under",
"price": 1.93
},
{
"point": 2.75,
"outcome": "Over",
"price": 1.93
},
{
"point": 2.75,
"outcome": "Under",
"price": 1.98
},
{
"point": 2.75,
"outcome": "Over",
"price": 1.85
},
{
"point": 2.5,
"outcome": "Under",
"price": 2.1
},
{
"point": 2.5,
"outcome": "Over",
"price": 1.67
},
{
"point": 3,
"outcome": "Under",
"price": 1.68
},
{
"point": 3,
"outcome": "Over",
"price": 2.06
},
{
"point": 2.5,
"outcome": "Under",
"price": 2.2
},
{
"point": 2.5,
"outcome": "Over",
"price": 1.68
},
{
"point": 2.5,
"outcome": "Under",
"price": 2.17
},
{
"point": 2.5,
"outcome": "Over",
"price": 1.66
},
{
"point": 2.5,
"outcome": "Under",
"price": 2.17
},
{
"point": 2.5,
"outcome": "Over",
"price": 1.66
},
{
"point": 2.5,
"outcome": "Under",
"price": 2.17
},
{
"point": 2.5,
"outcome": "Over",
"price": 1.66
},
{
"point": 2.5,
"outcome": "Under",
"price": 2.17
},
{
"point": 2.5,
"outcome": "Over",
"price": 1.66
},
{
"point": 2.5,
"outcome": "Under",
"price": 2.17
},
{
"point": 2.5,
"outcome": "Over",
"price": 1.66
},
{
"point": 2.75,
"outcome": "Under",
"price": 1.93
},
{
"point": 2.75,
"outcome": "Over",
"price": 1.93
},
{
"point": 2.75,
"outcome": "Under",
"price": 1.95
},
{
"point": 2.75,
"outcome": "Over",
"price": 1.84
}
],
"h2h": [
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Draw",
"price": 5.5
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "New Zealand",
"price": 9.5
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Belgium",
"price": 1.28
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Draw",
"price": 5.2
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "New Zealand",
"price": 8.9
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Belgium",
"price": 1.29
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Draw",
"price": 5.3
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "New Zealand",
"price": 10
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Belgium",
"price": 1.25
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Draw",
"price": 4.6
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "New Zealand",
"price": 6.75
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Belgium",
"price": 1.21
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Draw",
"price": 5
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "New Zealand",
"price": 7.5
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Belgium",
"price": 1.23
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Draw",
"price": 5.5
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "New Zealand",
"price": 9.25
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Belgium",
"price": 1.27
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Draw",
"price": 5.75
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "New Zealand",
"price": 10
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Belgium",
"price": 1.28
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Draw",
"price": 5.5
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "New Zealand",
"price": 9
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Belgium",
"price": 1.3
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Draw",
"price": 5.5
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "New Zealand",
"price": 9
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Belgium",
"price": 1.3
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Draw",
"price": 5
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "New Zealand",
"price": 11
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Belgium",
"price": 1.25
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Draw",
"price": 5
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "New Zealand",
"price": 10
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Belgium",
"price": 1.29
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Draw",
"price": 5
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "New Zealand",
"price": 9.5
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Belgium",
"price": 1.29
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Draw",
"price": 6
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "New Zealand",
"price": 10
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Belgium",
"price": 1.28
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Draw",
"price": 5.3
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "New Zealand",
"price": 9
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Belgium",
"price": 1.28
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Draw",
"price": 6
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "New Zealand",
"price": 10
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Belgium",
"price": 1.29
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Draw",
"price": 5.8
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "New Zealand",
"price": 10.5
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Belgium",
"price": 1.32
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Draw",
"price": 5.5
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "New Zealand",
"price": 9.5
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Belgium",
"price": 1.28
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Draw",
"price": 5.6
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "New Zealand",
"price": 10
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Belgium",
"price": 1.3
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Draw",
"price": 5.6
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "New Zealand",
"price": 10
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Belgium",
"price": 1.3
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Draw",
"price": 5.5
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "New Zealand",
"price": 9.5
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Belgium",
"price": 1.29
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Draw",
"price": 5.6
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "New Zealand",
"price": 10
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Belgium",
"price": 1.3
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Draw",
"price": 5.5
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "New Zealand",
"price": 9.5
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Belgium",
"price": 1.28
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Draw",
"price": 5.8
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "New Zealand",
"price": 10.5
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Belgium",
"price": 1.32
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Draw",
"price": 5.6
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "New Zealand",
"price": 10
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Belgium",
"price": 1.3
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Draw",
"price": 5.2
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "New Zealand",
"price": 8.9
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Belgium",
"price": 1.29
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Draw",
"price": 5.6
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "New Zealand",
"price": 9.32
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Belgium",
"price": 1.27
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Draw",
"price": 5.5
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "New Zealand",
"price": 10
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Belgium",
"price": 1.25
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Draw",
"price": 5.5
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "New Zealand",
"price": 11
},
{
"point": null,
"outcome": "Belgium",
"price": 1.25
}
],
"spreads": [
{
"point": 1.5,
"outcome": "New Zealand",
"price": 1.94
},
{
"point": -1.5,
"outcome": "Belgium",
"price": 1.91
},
{
"point": 1.5,
"outcome": "New Zealand",
"price": 1.95
},
{
"point": -1.5,
"outcome": "Belgium",
"price": 1.87
},
{
"point": 1.5,
"outcome": "New Zealand",
"price": 1.88
},
{
"point": -1.5,
"outcome": "Belgium",
"price": 1.83
},
{
"point": 1.5,
"outcome": "New Zealand",
"price": 1.94
},
{
"point": -1.5,
"outcome": "Belgium",
"price": 1.91
},
{
"point": 1.5,
"outcome": "New Zealand",
"price": 1.93
},
{
"point": -1.5,
"outcome": "Belgium",
"price": 1.86
}
]
},
"note": "Bookmaker consensus odds at the moment of the call. Frozen here so settlement grades against the same line."
},
"markets_requested": [
"h2h",
"totals_2.5",
"btts",
"spreads_-1",
"asian_handicap",
"ht_ft",
"correct_score"
],
"research_directive": [
"Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
"recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
"Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
"If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
]
}
The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.
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Bookmaker odds
34 books · sharp books pinned · best price highlighted
| Book | New Zealand | Draw | Belgium |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | 9.32 | 5.60 | 1.27 |
| Draftkings ↗ | 10.00 | 6.00 | 1.29 |
| Fanduel ↗ | 11.00 | 5.60 | 1.28 |
| William Hill | 10.00 | 5.00 | 1.29 |
| Betclic FR | 9.25 | 5.50 | 1.27 |
| Betfred | 11.00 | 5.00 | 1.29 |
| BetOnline | 8.90 | 5.20 | 1.29 |
| Betrivers | 10.00 | 5.60 | 1.30 |
| Bovada | 10.00 | 5.75 | 1.28 |
| Boylesports | 11.00 | 5.00 | 1.25 |
| Casumo | 10.00 | 5.60 | 1.30 |
| Coral | 9.00 | 5.50 | 1.30 |
| Everygame | 10.00 | 6.00 | 1.28 |
| Grosvenor | 9.50 | 5.50 | 1.29 |
| Gtbets | 9.48 | 5.58 | 1.30 |
| Ladbrokes | 9.00 | 5.50 | 1.30 |
| Leovegas | 10.00 | 5.60 | 1.30 |
| Leovegas Se | 10.00 | 5.60 | 1.30 |
| Livescorebet | 9.50 | 5.50 | 1.28 |
| LowVig | 8.90 | 5.20 | 1.29 |
| Marathonbet | 11.25 | 5.85 | 1.28 |
| MyBookie | 9.00 | 5.30 | 1.28 |
| Paddy Power | 11.00 | 5.50 | 1.25 |
| Pmu | 9.50 | 5.50 | 1.28 |
| Skybet | 10.00 | 5.50 | 1.25 |
| Smarkets | 9.80 | 5.70 | 1.28 |
| Sport888 | 9.50 | 5.00 | 1.29 |
| Tipico | 10.00 | 5.30 | 1.25 |
| Unibet Nl | 10.50 | 5.80 | 1.32 |
| Unibet Se | 10.50 | 5.80 | 1.32 |
| Unibet | 9.50 | 5.25 | 1.29 |
| Virginbet | 9.50 | 5.50 | 1.28 |
| Winamax | 7.50 | 5.00 | 1.23 |
| Winamax | 6.75 | 4.60 | 1.21 |
| Book | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | 2.8 | 1.84 | 1.95 |
| William Hill | 2.5 | 1.67 | 2.10 |
| BetOnline | 2.8 | 1.93 | 1.93 |
| Betrivers | 2.5 | 1.66 | 2.17 |
| Bovada | 2.8 | 1.85 | 1.98 |
| Casumo | 2.5 | 1.66 | 2.17 |
| Grosvenor | 2.5 | 1.66 | 2.17 |
| Gtbets | 2.5 | 1.65 | 2.15 |
| Leovegas | 2.5 | 1.66 | 2.17 |
| LowVig | 2.8 | 1.93 | 1.93 |
| MyBookie | 3.0 | 2.06 | 1.68 |
| Pmu | 2.5 | 1.63 | 2.12 |
| Unibet Nl | 2.5 | 1.66 | 2.17 |
| Unibet Se | 2.5 | 1.68 | 2.20 |
| Book | New Zealand | Belgium |
|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | +1.5 @ 1.93 | -1.5 @ 1.86 |
| BetOnline | +1.5 @ 1.94 | -1.5 @ 1.91 |
| Bovada | +1.5 @ 1.95 | -1.5 @ 1.87 |
| Gtbets | +1.5 @ 1.91 | -1.5 @ 1.83 |
| LowVig | +1.5 @ 1.94 | -1.5 @ 1.91 |
| MyBookie | +1.5 @ 1.88 | -1.5 @ 1.83 |
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