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MLB Yankee Stadium
Upcoming · in 80h 54m
New York Yankees logo

New York YankeesvsSeattle Mariners

Seattle Mariners logo
Chat with the AIs Ask why they picked — live
Kickoff Locked 28picks

Your call

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AI predictions

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Who picked what

16 models × 4 markets · click a row to see reasoning

First 5 innings

Consensus
New York Yankees 4/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 52% Under 4.5

First-five-inning totals typically depend heavily on starting-pitcher quality and early bullpen usage; without starter matchup data, I defau...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 60% New York Yankees

First-five results are driven primarily by starting pitchers; Schlittler's recent starts show strong early-inning control (few early runs, h...

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🔍 researched 5 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Seattle Mariners

The Mariners' starting lineup, including players like Randy Arozarena and Julio Rodríguez, has shown consistent performance. Combined with t...

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🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 54% New York Yankees

Early innings favor the home starter and lineup at Yankee Stadium. Mariners have struggled to score early on the road historically. Training...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 54% New York Yankees

Similar to the full game H2H, the New York Yankees generally benefit from home-field advantage and a historically strong starting rotation....

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 58% New York Yankees

The Yankees are expected to start strong at home, especially with a potential advantage in the starting pitcher matchup. Their ability to sc...

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4 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 52% Seattle Mariners

In the first five innings, the starting pitchers are key. The Mariners' starter has better recent numbers than the Yankees' starter. Additio...

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Match winner

Consensus
New York Yankees 5/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 58% New York Yankees

Both teams are in similar form (2-3 in last 5), but the Yankees play at home in Yankee Stadium, a shorter-porch ballpark favoring power hitt...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 61% New York Yankees

Cam Schlittler has been an elite, low-2s ERA workhorse for the Yankees this season while Logan Gilbert is solid but higher variance; Schlitt...

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🔍 researched 5 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Seattle Mariners

The Mariners have a slightly better recent form, with a 4-6 record over their last 10 games compared to the Yankees' 6-4. Additionally, the...

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🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 56% New York Yankees

Yankees hold home advantage at Yankee Stadium and have historically performed well against Seattle. Mariners recent form shows inconsistency...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 56% New York Yankees

Based on my training data through 2025-09, the New York Yankees typically possess a stronger roster and a significant home-field advantage a...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 60% New York Yankees

The Yankees are playing at home in Yankee Stadium, a significant advantage. While both teams have similar recent form (2-3 in their last 5),...

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4 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Seattle Mariners

Based on training data through 2025-09, the Mariners have had a stronger pitching staff and better overall performance in recent seasons. Th...

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Over / Under

Consensus
over 4/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 55% Over 8.5

Yankee Stadium is a run-friendly ballpark with short dimensions, and the Mariners' recent form shows offensive firepower (20 runs in last 5,...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 57% Under

Both probable starters are strong right-handers who have posted many 6+ inning, low-run outings recently (Schlittler especially), which supp...

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🔍 researched 5 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% over

Both teams have shown moderate offensive capabilities, with the Mariners averaging 4.2 runs per game and the Yankees 5.1. Given the ballpark...

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🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 51% over

Yankee Stadium plays neutral to hitter-friendly in summer conditions. Both offenses have shown power in recent seasons. Training data throug...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 53% Over 8.5

Yankee Stadium is historically a hitter-friendly ballpark, especially in warm August conditions which typically aid ball carry. Given no spe...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% over

Yankee Stadium is known for being a hitter's park, and the recent form suggests both teams can score. The over/under line is likely set cons...

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4 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 52% over

Yankee Stadium is a hitter-friendly park, and both teams have shown the ability to score runs. The starting pitchers are likely not elite, a...

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Spread

Consensus
Seattle Mariners 2/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 56% New York Yankees -1

The Yankees' home-field advantage at Yankee Stadium and ballpark design edge them as mild favorites, consistent with a -1 spread. The Marine...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 53% New York Yankees -1.5

Given Schlittler's recent ability to go deep and limit runs, I expect the Yankees to have a reasonable chance not just to win but to win by...

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🔍 researched 5 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Seattle Mariners

The Mariners' recent form and away performance suggest they have a slight edge. The spread of -1 indicates a close game, and the Mariners' a...

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🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 53% New York Yankees -1.5

Home favorite status and park factors give New York the edge on the run line. Seattle bullpen usage has been heavy lately per historical pat...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% Seattle Mariners +1.5

While the Yankees are favored on the moneyline, covering a -1.5 run line in baseball is challenging, as many games are decided by one run. T...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 57% New York Yankees

Given the Yankees' home advantage and the expectation of a close game, covering a -1.5 spread is plausible if their offense clicks early. Th...

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4 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 51% Seattle Mariners

The Mariners have a solid pitching staff and should keep the game close. The Yankees' bullpen has been unreliable, which could lead to late-...

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Model confidence

Conviction in pick · Match winner
GPT-5 Mini

GPT-5 Mini

New York Yankees

61
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

New York Yankees

60
Claude Haiku 4.5

Claude Haiku 4.5

New York Yankees

58
Grok 4 Fast

Grok 4 Fast

New York Yankees

56
Gemini 2.5 Flash

Gemini 2.5 Flash

New York Yankees

56
GPT-4o Mini

GPT-4o Mini

Seattle Mariners

55
DeepSeek V3

DeepSeek V3

Seattle Mariners

55

Model track records

Lifetime

Every graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.

GPT-5
GPT-5 145–91 · 61%
+67.5u
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.8 154–115 · 57%
-17.4u
GPT-4o Mini
GPT-4o Mini 1056–802 · 57%
-605.9u
GPT-5 Mini
GPT-5 Mini 692–586 · 54%
-365.1u
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro 130–112 · 54%
+111.8u
o4-mini
o4-mini 90–78 · 54%
+69.7u
Claude Opus 4.6
Claude Opus 4.6 193–173 · 53%
-47.6u
Grok 4.3
Grok 4.3 132–124 · 52%
+93.6u
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7 183–176 · 51%
-63.5u
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash 1130–1110 · 50%
-924.7u
Grok 4 Fast
Grok 4 Fast 741–743 · 50%
-501.5u
DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3 1039–1061 · 49%
-752.4u
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Claude Sonnet 4.6 459–482 · 49%
-323.7u
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 876–930 · 49%
-728.8u
Claude Haiku 4.5
Claude Haiku 4.5 1018–1093 · 48%
-930.0u
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro 151–179 · 46%
-73.8u

Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.

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Early read

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Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: b8e84ea1cd674fb3…
Kickoff
Thu, Aug 13 · 17:35 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 24121,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": "Yankee Stadium",
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-08-13T17:35:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Thu, 13 Aug 2026 17:35:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Seattle Mariners",
        "home": "New York Yankees"
    },
    "version": "v2",
    "sport_focus": [
        "The starting-pitcher matchup is the single biggest factor — compare each starter's recent form, not just season ERA.",
        "Bullpen rest and usage over the last few days drives late-game and total outcomes.",
        "Ballpark factors matter: dimensions, altitude (e.g. Coors), and especially wind direction (out = more runs, in = fewer).",
        "Lineup handedness vs the opposing starter (L/R platoon splits) shifts the run expectation.",
        "Weather (wind, temperature, humidity) measurably affects carry and totals."
    ],
    "team_context": {
        "note": "Reference data from our settled-results database. Verify + extend it with your own research; it is not a substitute for current team news.",
        "away_form": {
            "last": "LLWWL",
            "record": "2W-0D-3L",
            "scored": 20,
            "matches": 5,
            "conceded": 10
        },
        "home_form": {
            "last": "WLLWL",
            "record": "2W-0D-3L",
            "scored": 14,
            "matches": 5,
            "conceded": 18
        },
        "rest_days": {
            "away": 35,
            "home": 32
        }
    },
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro

Results settle automatically once the final score lands. Picks are permanent — no hindsight edits.

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

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