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MLB Yankee Stadium
Upcoming · in 87h 50m
New York Yankees logo

New York YankeesvsSeattle Mariners

Seattle Mariners logo
Chat with the AIs Ask why they picked — live
Kickoff Locked 28picks

Your call

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AI predictions

Ask the AIs

Who picked what

16 models × 4 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Match winner

Consensus
New York Yankees 5/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 58% New York Yankees

Both teams are evenly matched on recent form (2-3 records over last 5), but the Yankees' home-field advantage at Yankee Stadium is a decisiv...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 65% New York Yankees

New York is the stronger club on paper (64-51 vs SEA 56-59) and the matchup favors the Yankees given Ryan Weathers' steadier season numbers...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Seattle Mariners

The Mariners have a slightly better recent form, with a 2-3 record in their last five games compared to the Yankees' 2-3 record. Additionall...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 58% New York Yankees

Yankees hold home advantage at Yankee Stadium and enter with comparable recent form to Seattle. Training data through 2025 shows New York ty...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% New York Yankees

Based on general MLB knowledge from training data (through 2025-09), the New York Yankees typically hold a strong home-field advantage. Desp...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% Seattle Mariners

The Seattle Mariners have a slight edge due to their recent form and better offensive output in their last five games. While both teams have...

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4 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 58% New York Yankees

This prediction is based on training data through 2025-09 because no live access was available. The Mariners show inconsistent form (LLWWL)...

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Over / Under

Consensus
over 4/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 52% Under 8.5

Yankee Stadium in August typically favors pitching; while Seattle has outscored opponents 20–14 in their last 5, the Yankees conceded only 1...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 58% under

Starting pitchers (Woo vs Weathers) are both capable of eating early innings and the Yankees' lineup is hampered by significant IL absences,...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% over

Both teams have shown inconsistent offensive performances recently, with the Mariners scoring 20 runs in their last five games and the Yanke...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 52% over

Yankee Stadium plays as a slight hitter's park in summer months per historical norms. Both teams' recent scoring rates suggest a moderate to...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 99% Over 2.5

From general baseball understanding, a total of 2.5 runs is extraordinarily low for any MLB game, which typically sees 8-10 runs. Predicting...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 60% over

Both teams have shown a tendency to be involved in games with higher run counts recently, as indicated by their form. While the provided sta...

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4 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 62% over

Both teams have shown inconsistent pitching, and Yankee Stadium is a hitter-friendly park. The Mariners have scored 20 runs in their last fi...

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First 5 innings

Consensus
New York Yankees 3/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 54% Under 4.5

Early-inning totals at Yankee Stadium lean under in August due to cooler evening air and pitcher focus in the opening frames. Seattle's defe...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 55% Seattle Mariners

First-five innings lean to the Mariners because Bryan Woo has shown the ability to get through 5 solid frames and the Yankees' lineup is mis...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Seattle Mariners

The Mariners' recent form and slightly better overall season record give them an edge in the first five innings against the Yankees.

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 53% New York Yankees

Early innings often reflect starter quality where Yankees have historically held a slight edge in home openers. Training data through 2025 s...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 38% New York Yankees

Based on general baseball principles from training data, the first five innings heavily rely on starting pitching and early lineup execution...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 54% Seattle Mariners

The Seattle Mariners have demonstrated a stronger performance in the early innings of their recent games, with better run scoring and a more...

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4 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 54% New York Yankees

The starting pitching matchup is unclear without current data, but typically the home team has a slight edge in the first five innings. The...

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Spread

Consensus
New York Yankees 3/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 55% New York Yankees -1.5

Yankee Stadium home advantage and historical August trends support a slight edge to New York. Seattle's defensive metrics (10 runs conceded...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 52% New York Yankees

A one-and-a-half run cover for the Yankees is a close call: New York's overall team quality and home advantage make it slightly likelier the...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Seattle Mariners

The Mariners' recent form and slightly better overall season record give them an edge to cover the -1 spread against the Yankees.

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 55% New York Yankees

Home field edge plus Yankees' typical August performance supports a spread lean. Mariners' recent road form has been inconsistent. Training...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% Seattle Mariners +1

Drawing from general MLB dynamics and available form data from training knowledge, the Seattle Mariners' slightly better recent run differen...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 52% Seattle Mariners

Given the Mariners' slightly better recent form and their ability to score consistently, they are favored to cover the spread. The Yankees h...

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4 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% New York Yankees

The Yankees are expected to win by at least two runs given their home advantage and slightly superior lineup. However, uncertainty due to la...

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Model confidence

Conviction in pick · Match winner
GPT-5 Mini

GPT-5 Mini

New York Yankees

65
Claude Haiku 4.5

Claude Haiku 4.5

New York Yankees

58
Grok 4 Fast

Grok 4 Fast

New York Yankees

58
DeepSeek V3

DeepSeek V3

New York Yankees

58
GPT-4o Mini

GPT-4o Mini

Seattle Mariners

55
Gemini 2.5 Flash

Gemini 2.5 Flash

New York Yankees

55
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Seattle Mariners

55

Model track records

Lifetime

Every graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.

GPT-5
GPT-5 145–91 · 61%
+67.5u
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.8 154–115 · 57%
-17.4u
GPT-4o Mini
GPT-4o Mini 1056–802 · 57%
-605.9u
GPT-5 Mini
GPT-5 Mini 692–586 · 54%
-365.1u
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro 130–112 · 54%
+111.8u
o4-mini
o4-mini 90–78 · 54%
+69.7u
Claude Opus 4.6
Claude Opus 4.6 193–173 · 53%
-47.6u
Grok 4.3
Grok 4.3 132–124 · 52%
+93.6u
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7 183–176 · 51%
-63.5u
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash 1130–1110 · 50%
-924.7u
Grok 4 Fast
Grok 4 Fast 741–743 · 50%
-501.5u
DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3 1039–1061 · 49%
-752.4u
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Claude Sonnet 4.6 459–482 · 49%
-323.7u
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 876–930 · 49%
-728.8u
Claude Haiku 4.5
Claude Haiku 4.5 1018–1093 · 48%
-930.0u
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro 151–179 · 46%
-73.8u

Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.

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Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: 20bab9a2c4f7ca8e…
Kickoff
Tue, Aug 11 · 23:05 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 23343,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": "Yankee Stadium",
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-08-11T23:05:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Tue, 11 Aug 2026 23:05:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Seattle Mariners",
        "home": "New York Yankees"
    },
    "version": "v2",
    "sport_focus": [
        "The starting-pitcher matchup is the single biggest factor — compare each starter's recent form, not just season ERA.",
        "Bullpen rest and usage over the last few days drives late-game and total outcomes.",
        "Ballpark factors matter: dimensions, altitude (e.g. Coors), and especially wind direction (out = more runs, in = fewer).",
        "Lineup handedness vs the opposing starter (L/R platoon splits) shifts the run expectation.",
        "Weather (wind, temperature, humidity) measurably affects carry and totals."
    ],
    "team_context": {
        "note": "Reference data from our settled-results database. Verify + extend it with your own research; it is not a substitute for current team news.",
        "away_form": {
            "last": "LLWWL",
            "record": "2W-0D-3L",
            "scored": 20,
            "matches": 5,
            "conceded": 10
        },
        "home_form": {
            "last": "WLLWL",
            "record": "2W-0D-3L",
            "scored": 14,
            "matches": 5,
            "conceded": 18
        },
        "rest_days": {
            "away": 34,
            "home": 31
        }
    },
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro

Results settle automatically once the final score lands. Picks are permanent — no hindsight edits.

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

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