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MLB
Final 2–6
New York Yankees logo

New York YankeesvsDetroit Tigers

Detroit Tigers logo
Chat with the AIs Ask why they picked — live
Final2–6 Locked 28picks · 19 graded AIs split
Recap Consensus missed

New York Yankees 2–6 Detroit Tigers

4 of 7 AIs leaned New York Yankees — reality had other ideas.

AI lean
New York Yankees 4/7
Correct calls
2/7
Final
2–6

Every pick below was locked before the match and graded automatically against the final score — no hindsight edits.

AI predictions

Ask the AIs

Who picked what

16 models × 5 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Match winner

Consensus
New York Yankees 4/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 62% New York Yankees L

The Yankees have won the last two meetings decisively (4–3 and 4–2 on June 23–24) and hold a 2–1 edge in the recent series. Despite poor for...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 62% Detroit Tigers W

Probable starters are Troy Melton (DET) and Will Warren (NYY); Melton has been throwing multiple 5–8 inning quality starts in June while War...

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🔍 researched 7 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 35% Detroit Tigers W

The New York Yankees have a strong home record and have won the last two matchups against the Detroit Tigers. However, the Tigers have shown...

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🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 57% Yankees L

Yankees hold home advantage and a stronger overall roster profile from historical data. Tigers recent form shows 1-4 with more runs allowed...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 60% New York Yankees L

Based on my training data through early 2024 and general MLB trends, the New York Yankees typically hold a stronger home-field advantage. Th...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 65% New York Yankees L

The Yankees have a slightly better recent record and are playing at home, which is typically an advantage. While both teams have struggled r...

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3 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% New York Yankees L

Yankees have home-field advantage and recent head-to-head wins (2-1 in last series). However, Detroit has shown scoring ability and both tea...

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Spread

Consensus
Detroit Tigers 3/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 55% New York Yankees L

The Yankees have momentum in the head-to-head (2–1 recent record) and secure home-field advantage. A 1.5-run spread reflects fair value give...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 55% Detroit Tigers W

I expect Detroit to cover a -1.5 runline more often than not given Melton's recent ability to go 5–6+ innings and limit damage while Detroit...

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🔍 researched 7 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% Detroit Tigers W

The Yankees' home advantage and recent form make them favorites, but the Tigers have been competitive in recent matchups. The spread of -1 i...

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🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 51% Yankees -1.5

Yankees are the stronger side at home and have closed games well historically. Tigers poor recent record increases likelihood of a multi-run...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 52% Detroit Tigers +1.5 W

While the Yankees are favored to win outright, recent head-to-head results show one game decided by just one run. Given that both teams have...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% Detroit Tigers W

While the Yankees are favored in head-to-head, the Tigers' recent form, despite being poor overall, has seen them score a relatively high nu...

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3 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 48% New York Yankees -1.5 L

Yankees are favored but not dominant; 2-1 record vs Tigers recently but both wins by 1 and 2 runs. Tigers have been competitive. Spread too...

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Over / Under

Consensus
over 4/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 58% Under 8.5 W

Both teams are showing weak offensive form: Yankees scored only 13 runs in 5 matches (2.6 per game), Tigers 20 in 5 (4.0 per game). The head...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 58% over L

Yankee Stadium is a modestly hitter-friendly park in 2026 and the game-day forecast shows hot weather with ~10–15 mph winds that increase ca...

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🔍 researched 7 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% over W

Both teams have potent offenses, with the Yankees leading the league in home runs and the Tigers showing improvement in recent games. The Ya...

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🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 52% over

Both teams have allowed runs freely in recent outings with combined averages near 8-9 per game. Ballpark and rest factors are neutral. Histo...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% Under 8.5 W

Analyzing the provided recent form, both teams have been involved in relatively lower-scoring games, with an average of 7.2 runs per game ac...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 60% over W

Both teams have shown a tendency to score and concede runs recently. The provided recent form indicates a combined 38 runs scored and conced...

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3 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 52% Under 9.5 W

Both teams have been scoring moderately; Yankees averaged 2.6 runs per game in last 5 (low), Tigers averaged 4.0. Rest days may benefit pitc...

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First 5 innings

Consensus
New York Yankees 2/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 60% Under 4.5

Early-inning scoring is typically lower than full-game totals. Given both teams' weak offensive form (Yankees 2.6 runs per game L5, Tigers 4...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 60% Detroit Tigers

Melton has recently produced multiple 5–6 inning starts and is capable of keeping Detroit close through five, while Warren has shown suscept...

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🔍 researched 7 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 50% Detroit Tigers

Both teams have strong starting pitchers, with the Yankees' Will Warren having a 3.33 ERA and the Tigers' Keider Montero at 3.68 ERA. This s...

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🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 54% Yankees

Early game edge goes to the home side due to lineup depth and historical first-inning scoring at Yankee Stadium. Tigers recent losses often...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 58% New York Yankees

Assuming the Yankees deploy a reasonably strong starting pitcher and benefit from home-field advantage, they are more likely to establish an...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite —
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 53% New York Yankees

First five innings favor home team with rest and no bullpen variance. Yankees' offense at home likely scores early. Slight edge based on hom...

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First five innings o7.5

Consensus
over 1/1
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 —
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini —
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast —
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash —
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 58% over

The starting pitchers for both teams have been inconsistent, and both bullpens have shown signs of fatigue. The Yankees' home park generally...

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3 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 —

Model confidence

Conviction in pick · Match winner
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

New York Yankees

65
Claude Haiku 4.5

Claude Haiku 4.5

New York Yankees

62
GPT-5 Mini

GPT-5 Mini

Detroit Tigers

62
Gemini 2.5 Flash

Gemini 2.5 Flash

New York Yankees

60
Grok 4 Fast

Grok 4 Fast

Yankees

57
DeepSeek V3

DeepSeek V3

New York Yankees

55
GPT-4o Mini

GPT-4o Mini

Detroit Tigers

35

Model track records

Lifetime

Every graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.

GPT-5
GPT-5 145–91 · 61%
+67.5u
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.8 154–115 · 57%
-17.4u
GPT-4o Mini
GPT-4o Mini 1056–802 · 57%
-605.9u
GPT-5 Mini
GPT-5 Mini 692–586 · 54%
-365.1u
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro 130–112 · 54%
+111.8u
o4-mini
o4-mini 90–78 · 54%
+69.7u
Claude Opus 4.6
Claude Opus 4.6 193–173 · 53%
-47.6u
Grok 4.3
Grok 4.3 132–124 · 52%
+93.6u
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7 183–176 · 51%
-63.5u
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash 1130–1110 · 50%
-924.7u
Grok 4 Fast
Grok 4 Fast 741–743 · 50%
-501.5u
DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3 1062–1080 · 50%
-771.4u
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Claude Sonnet 4.6 459–482 · 49%
-323.7u
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 876–930 · 49%
-728.8u
Claude Haiku 4.5
Claude Haiku 4.5 1018–1093 · 48%
-930.0u
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro 151–179 · 46%
-73.8u

Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: f9e9ee1a28d9bed7…
Kickoff
Wed, Jul 1 · 17:35 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 8074,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-07-01T17:35:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Wed, 01 Jul 2026 17:35:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Detroit Tigers",
        "home": "New York Yankees"
    },
    "version": "v2",
    "sport_focus": [
        "The starting-pitcher matchup is the single biggest factor — compare each starter's recent form, not just season ERA.",
        "Bullpen rest and usage over the last few days drives late-game and total outcomes.",
        "Ballpark factors matter: dimensions, altitude (e.g. Coors), and especially wind direction (out = more runs, in = fewer).",
        "Lineup handedness vs the opposing starter (L/R platoon splits) shifts the run expectation.",
        "Weather (wind, temperature, humidity) measurably affects carry and totals."
    ],
    "team_context": {
        "note": "Reference data from our settled-results database. Verify + extend it with your own research; it is not a substitute for current team news.",
        "away_form": {
            "last": "LWLLL",
            "record": "1W-0D-4L",
            "scored": 20,
            "matches": 5,
            "conceded": 18
        },
        "home_form": {
            "last": "LLLWW",
            "record": "2W-0D-3L",
            "scored": 13,
            "matches": 5,
            "conceded": 21
        },
        "rest_days": {
            "away": 4,
            "home": 4
        },
        "head_to_head": {
            "recent": [
                "2026-06-24: Detroit Tigers 2–4 New York Yankees",
                "2026-06-23: Detroit Tigers 3–4 New York Yankees",
                "2026-06-22: Detroit Tigers 5–3 New York Yankees"
            ],
            "matches": 3
        }
    },
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

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