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MLB
Final 3–7
New York Yankees logo

New York YankeesvsDetroit Tigers

Detroit Tigers logo
Chat with the AIs Ask why they picked — live
Final3–7 Locked 28picks · 18 graded
Recap Consensus missed

New York Yankees 3–7 Detroit Tigers

6 of 7 AIs leaned New York Yankees — reality had other ideas.

AI lean
New York Yankees 6/7
Correct calls
1/7
Final
3–7

Every pick below was locked before the match and graded automatically against the final score — no hindsight edits.

AI predictions

Ask the AIs

Who picked what

16 models × 5 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Match winner

Consensus
New York Yankees 6/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 58% New York Yankees L

The Yankees have historically been a stronger franchise with more consistent regular-season performance and deeper rosters than Detroit. How...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 62% New York Yankees L

Yankees are the market favorite at home and have a deeper lineup even with Judge and Stanton on the IL; the home park and lineup depth offse...

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🔍 researched 6 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 75% New York Yankees L

The New York Yankees have a strong home record and have been performing well recently, while the Detroit Tigers have struggled on the road....

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🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 58% New York Yankees L

Training data through 2025-09 shows Yankees consistently strong at home against AL Central opponents. Tigers have struggled on the road in r...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 65% New York Yankees L

This prediction relies solely on my training data up to my last update, as current information for a 2026 game is unavailable. Historically,...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% Detroit Tigers W

The New York Yankees are a historically strong team, but recent trends and player performance from my training data suggest the Detroit Tige...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 62% New York Yankees L

Yankees are strong at home with a potent lineup, while Tigers are rebuilding and have poor road form. Probabilities are adjusted slightly fo...

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Spread

Consensus
New York Yankees -1.5 3/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 55% New York Yankees L

The Yankees' historical advantage as a franchise with stronger offensive and pitching depth makes them slight favourites to cover a -1.5 run...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 57% home_minus 1.5

Home Yankees winning by at least 2 runs is the most likely runline outcome because Yankees still have lineup depth and home-park advantage;...

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🔍 researched 6 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 70% New York Yankees L

The Yankees' strong home performance and the Tigers' struggles on the road suggest a likely margin of victory for New York. The Yankees have...

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🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 55% New York Yankees -1.5 L

Yankees hold a historical edge in run differential at home against Detroit. Tigers lineup has shown limited power on the road per pre-2026 d...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% New York Yankees -1.5 L

Given the New York Yankees' historical strength and home advantage, when they win, they often do so by a comfortable margin of two or more r...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% Detroit Tigers W

Given the slight edge projected for the Detroit Tigers in the head-to-head market, they are also favored to cover a -1.5 run spread, implyin...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 50% New York Yankees -1.5 L

Yankees are favored but -1.5 is a tough cover. Their recent wins are often by 1 run, making the spread a coin flip without live info.

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Over / Under

Consensus
over 3/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 52% Over 8.5 W

MLB games in late June typically feature elevated offensive production due to warm weather and player adjustments mid-season. Yankees–Tigers...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 58% under L

Both probable starters project to eat innings and limit runs — Mize has an ERA under 3.00 and Weathers has several 6+ inning, low-run games...

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🔍 researched 6 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 65% over W

Both teams have potent offenses and have been involved in high-scoring games recently. The Yankees' home games tend to have higher run total...

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🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 52% over

Training data through 2025-09 indicates Yankees games trend slightly over the total due to offensive firepower. Tigers pitching has been inc...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 58% Over 8.5 Runs W

Based on general historical MLB trends and my training data, Yankee Stadium is known to be a hitter-friendly park. The Yankees typically fie...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 60% over W

Considering the offensive capabilities of both teams based on historical data, and assuming average pitching performances, there's a slightl...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% over 8.5

Yankees offense is elite, Tigers pitching is average, and Yankee Stadium is hitter-friendly. Expect moderate scoring but not extreme.

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First 5 innings

Consensus
New York Yankees 5/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 54% New York Yankees

First-five-inning markets often reflect early offensive momentum and starting pitcher quality. The Yankees' historical tendency to field str...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% New York Yankees

The Yankees have been strong in the first five innings at home, often taking early leads. The Tigers have struggled to score early in games,...

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🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 54% New York Yankees

Early innings historically favor the stronger home pitching and lineup of the Yankees. Tigers have been slow starters on the road in past se...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 62% New York Yankees

The New York Yankees, as a well-resourced MLB team, typically feature strong starting pitching that should give them an early advantage in g...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 58% over

The early innings often set the tone for games. Based on historical data, these two teams have shown a tendency to score early, making an 'o...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 60% New York Yankees

Yankees have a strong starting rotation and tend to start fast at home, while Tigers' offense often struggles early. Slightly higher confide...

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First five innings h2h

Consensus
Detroit Tigers 1/1
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 —
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 48% Detroit Tigers

First-five innings tilt slightly to the Tigers because Casey Mize has been reliable early in games this season (low ERA and quality start fr...

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🔍 researched 6 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini —
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast —
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash —
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite —
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 —

Model confidence

Conviction in pick · Match winner
GPT-4o Mini

GPT-4o Mini

New York Yankees

75
Gemini 2.5 Flash

Gemini 2.5 Flash

New York Yankees

65
GPT-5 Mini

GPT-5 Mini

New York Yankees

62
DeepSeek V3

DeepSeek V3

New York Yankees

62
Claude Haiku 4.5

Claude Haiku 4.5

New York Yankees

58
Grok 4 Fast

Grok 4 Fast

New York Yankees

58
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Detroit Tigers

55

Model track records

Lifetime

Every graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.

GPT-5
GPT-5 145–91 · 61%
+67.5u
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.8 154–115 · 57%
-17.4u
GPT-4o Mini
GPT-4o Mini 1056–802 · 57%
-605.9u
GPT-5 Mini
GPT-5 Mini 692–586 · 54%
-365.1u
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro 130–112 · 54%
+111.8u
o4-mini
o4-mini 90–78 · 54%
+69.7u
Claude Opus 4.6
Claude Opus 4.6 193–173 · 53%
-47.6u
Grok 4.3
Grok 4.3 132–124 · 52%
+93.6u
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7 183–176 · 51%
-63.5u
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash 1130–1110 · 50%
-924.7u
Grok 4 Fast
Grok 4 Fast 741–743 · 50%
-501.5u
DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3 1039–1061 · 49%
-752.4u
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Claude Sonnet 4.6 459–482 · 49%
-323.7u
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 876–930 · 49%
-728.8u
Claude Haiku 4.5
Claude Haiku 4.5 1018–1093 · 48%
-930.0u
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro 151–179 · 46%
-73.8u

Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: 0e604dd999d2175d…
Kickoff
Mon, Jun 29 · 23:05 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 7654,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-06-29T23:05:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Mon, 29 Jun 2026 23:05:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Detroit Tigers",
        "home": "New York Yankees"
    },
    "version": "v1",
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

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