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MLB
Final 1–5
New York Yankees logo

New York YankeesvsChicago White Sox

Chicago White Sox logo
Chat with the AIs Ask why they picked — live
Final1–5 Locked 28picks · 15 graded
Recap Consensus missed

New York Yankees 1–5 Chicago White Sox

All 7 AIs backed New York Yankees — reality had other ideas.

AI lean
New York Yankees 7/7
Correct calls
0/7
Final
1–5

Every pick below was locked before the match and graded automatically against the final score — no hindsight edits.

AI predictions

Ask the AIs

Who picked what

16 models × 4 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Spread

Consensus
New York Yankees -1.5 4/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 54% New York Yankees -1.5 L

The spread at -1.5 reflects the Yankees' slight favorite status with home-field advantage, consistent with their stronger franchise profile....

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% New York Yankees L

Given the Yankees' strong home performance and the White Sox's road struggles, the Yankees are likely to cover the -1 spread in this matchup...

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🔍 researched 1 source cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 68% New York Yankees

Strong historical edge for Yankees as favorites against bottom-tier teams like the White Sox. Training data through 2025-09 supports home te...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 52% New York Yankees -1.5 L

Assuming the Yankees win this game, they frequently do so by more than one run due to their offensive firepower and ability to pull away fro...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 52% Chicago White Sox

Given the lack of specific team form or lineup data, predicting spreads is challenging. However, the Chicago White Sox may be undervalued in...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 50% New York Yankees -1.5 L

Yankees are favored but covering the run line is uncertain; White Sox can keep it close.

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Match winner

Consensus
New York Yankees 7/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 62% New York Yankees L

The Yankees are historically a stronger franchise with better recent regular-season performance and deeper payroll than the White Sox. Witho...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% New York Yankees L

The New York Yankees have a strong home record and have been performing well recently, while the Chicago White Sox have struggled on the roa...

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🔍 researched 1 source cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 76% New York Yankees L

Yankees have superior roster depth and pitching compared to the rebuilding White Sox. Training data through 2025-09 shows New York consisten...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 65% New York Yankees L

Based on historical team performance and general tendencies from my training data through early 2025, the New York Yankees are typically the...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 65% New York Yankees L

The New York Yankees historically have a strong record against the Chicago White Sox and a generally superior team composition based on trai...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 62% New York Yankees L

The Yankees are strong at home, while the White Sox have been inconsistent. Despite limited data, New York's lineup depth gives them an edge...

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Over / Under

Consensus
Over 8.5 3/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 55% Over 8.5 L

Both teams are MLB franchises with offensive capability; June weather at Yankee Stadium is typically favorable for run-scoring. Without pitc...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% over W

Both teams have potent offenses and have been involved in high-scoring games recently, suggesting a likelihood of the total runs exceeding 2...

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🔍 researched 1 source cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 53% over

Yankees offense projects for higher run totals against weaker White Sox pitching staff. Training data through 2025-09 indicates average game...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% Over 8.5 L

Yankee Stadium is known as a hitter-friendly ballpark, which often leads to higher-scoring games. The Yankees' lineup historically possesses...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% over

MLB games, particularly involving teams with strong offenses, tend to produce a moderate number of runs. Assuming average offensive capabili...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Over 8.5

Both teams have potent offenses, and Yankee Stadium is hitter-friendly. Pitching matchups could lead to runs.

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First 5 innings

Consensus
New York Yankees 6/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 60% New York Yankees

Early-inning performance often mirrors overall team strength and lineup depth. The Yankees' stronger roster and home-field advantage suggest...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% New York Yankees

The Yankees have been strong in the early innings at home, suggesting they will lead after the first five innings against the White Sox.

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🔍 researched 1 source cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 71% New York Yankees

Yankees starting pitchers typically dominate early innings versus Chicago lineups. Training data through 2025-09 shows New York holding lead...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 62% New York Yankees

The first five innings heavily rely on the starting pitchers and early offensive production. The Yankees generally have a stronger starting...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 60% New York Yankees

The Yankees' historical performance suggests a tendency for stronger starts to games. This early game advantage, combined with their general...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% New York Yankees

Yankees have strong early inning hitters and a solid starter. White Sox may struggle early.

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Model confidence

Conviction in pick · Match winner
Grok 4 Fast

Grok 4 Fast

New York Yankees

76
Claude Sonnet 4.6

Claude Sonnet 4.6

New York Yankees

72
Gemini 2.5 Flash

Gemini 2.5 Flash

New York Yankees

65
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

New York Yankees

65
Claude Haiku 4.5

Claude Haiku 4.5

New York Yankees

62
DeepSeek V3

DeepSeek V3

New York Yankees

62
GPT-4o Mini

GPT-4o Mini

New York Yankees

55

Model track records

Lifetime

Every graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.

GPT-5
GPT-5 145–91 · 61%
+67.5u
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.8 154–115 · 57%
-17.4u
GPT-4o Mini
GPT-4o Mini 1056–799 · 57%
-602.9u
GPT-5 Mini
GPT-5 Mini 690–586 · 54%
-365.1u
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro 130–112 · 54%
+111.8u
o4-mini
o4-mini 90–78 · 54%
+69.7u
Claude Opus 4.6
Claude Opus 4.6 193–173 · 53%
-47.6u
Grok 4.3
Grok 4.3 132–124 · 52%
+93.6u
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7 183–176 · 51%
-63.5u
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash 1128–1109 · 50%
-923.7u
Grok 4 Fast
Grok 4 Fast 740–743 · 50%
-501.5u
DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3 1031–1055 · 49%
-746.4u
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Claude Sonnet 4.6 459–482 · 49%
-323.7u
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 876–927 · 49%
-725.8u
Claude Haiku 4.5
Claude Haiku 4.5 1017–1091 · 48%
-928.0u
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro 151–179 · 46%
-73.8u

Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: ece93b81e0773145…
Kickoff
Thu, Jun 18 · 23:05 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 3517,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-06-18T23:05:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Thu, 18 Jun 2026 23:05:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Chicago White Sox",
        "home": "New York Yankees"
    },
    "version": "v1",
    "built_at": "2026-06-16T05:48:02+00:00",
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro
  • GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini
    4 tool calls · 1 source

    1 citation captured — unlock with Pro

  • Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

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