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MLB
Final 12–2
New York Yankees logo

New York YankeesvsChicago White Sox

Chicago White Sox logo
Chat with the AIs Ask why they picked — live
Final12–2 Locked 32picks · 16 graded
Recap Consensus called it

New York Yankees 12–2 Chicago White Sox

7 of 8 AIs leaned New York Yankees — and reality agreed.

AI lean
New York Yankees 7/8
Correct calls
7/8
Final
12–2

Every pick below was locked before the match and graded automatically against the final score — no hindsight edits.

AI predictions

Ask the AIs

Who picked what

16 models × 4 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Match winner

Consensus
New York Yankees 7/8
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 62% New York Yankees W

The Yankees are a historically dominant franchise with deeper financial resources and typically stronger roster construction than the White...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 62% New York Yankees W

Probable starters are Gerrit Cole (NYY) and Davis Martin (CWS); while Martin has had an excellent season (low ERA, many wins), New York is a...

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🔍 researched 6 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% New York Yankees W

The Yankees have a strong home record and are facing a White Sox team with a losing away record. Recent performances also favor the Yankees.

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 78% New York Yankees W

Yankees are a perennial contender with superior roster depth and pitching compared to the rebuilding White Sox. Historical dominance in this...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 68% New York Yankees W

Based on historical MLB team strength and general organizational consistency, the New York Yankees typically field a more competitive roster...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% Chicago White Sox L

Based on training data, the New York Yankees have historically been a stronger team than the Chicago White Sox. While specific recent form i...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 62% New York Yankees W

The Yankees are a strong home team with superior overall roster depth and recent form, while the White Sox are in a rebuilding phase with in...

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Over / Under

Consensus
over 3/8
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 56% Over 9.0

MLB games in mid-June typically fall in the 8.5–9.5 run total range depending on park factors and pitching strength. Yankee Stadium is a hit...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 64% under 7.5

Both probable starters are season-long pitchers with sub-2.50 ERAs in 2026 (Davis Martin notably 2.41; Cole ~2.45 in limited 2026 work), so...

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🔍 researched 6 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% over W

Both teams have strong offenses, and the Yankees have a high home run count, suggesting a high-scoring game.

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 55% over

Yankees offense tends to push games over the total while White Sox pitching has been inconsistent. June night games at Yankee Stadium often...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 58% Over 8.5 W

The Yankees offense is historically potent and capable of driving up run totals, especially at home. Given the general trend of MLB scoring...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 52% over

Without specific pitching matchups or recent offensive trends, predicting totals is challenging. However, MLB games often feature scoring, m...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Over 8.5

Both teams have had mixed offensive outputs, but Yankee Stadium is hitter-friendly and the White Sox bullpen is vulnerable, suggesting a mod...

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First 5 innings

Consensus
New York Yankees 6/8
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 54% Under 5.0

First-five-inning totals typically run lower than full-game totals because teams are more conservative early and starters often induce weak...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 48% New York Yankees

Predicting the first-five-inning lead favors the Yankees slightly because of home offense and the chance Cole provides quality early innings...

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🔍 researched 6 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% New York Yankees

The Yankees' strong home performance and the White Sox's struggles on the road suggest the Yankees will lead after five innings.

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 72% New York Yankees

Yankees typically jump on weaker opponents early with strong top-of-order bats. White Sox bullpen and starter quality lag behind. All reason...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 65% New York Yankees

The Yankees historically deploy stronger starting pitching, which gives them an edge in the early innings of a game. Their offense is also c...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 54% New York Yankees

The Yankees' general historical performance indicates they often start games strongly, especially at home. This suggests a higher probabilit...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 60% New York Yankees

The Yankees typically start strong with their top-of-rotation pitching and early offensive production at home. The White Sox may struggle ea...

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Spread

Consensus
New York Yankees -1.5 5/8
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 58% Yankees -1.5

A -1.5 spread for the Yankees reflects their organizational strength and home-field advantage at Yankee Stadium. The White Sox are typically...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 55% New York Yankees -1.5 W

Home team (Yankees) has the deeper lineup and are favored on the moneyline; that gives a reasonable chance they cover a -1.5 run line at Yan...

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🔍 researched 6 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% New York Yankees W

The Yankees' home advantage and superior recent form make them likely to cover the spread.

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 65% New York Yankees -1.5 W

Significant talent gap makes a Yankees win by 2+ runs the likeliest outcome. White Sox struggle to keep games close against strong AL East c...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 62% New York Yankees -1.5 W

The New York Yankees' superior talent and depth, relative to the Chicago White Sox based on historical data, suggest they are likely to win...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 53% New York Yankees

Given the Yankees' historical advantage, they are favored to win by a margin. Therefore, picking the Yankees on the spread is slightly more...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 50% New York Yankees -1.5 W

While the Yankees are favored to win straight up, covering a 1.5-run spread requires a two-run margin, which is less certain. The game could...

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Model confidence

Conviction in pick · Match winner
Grok 4 Fast

Grok 4 Fast

New York Yankees

78
Claude Sonnet 4.6

Claude Sonnet 4.6

New York Yankees

72
Gemini 2.5 Flash

Gemini 2.5 Flash

New York Yankees

68
Claude Haiku 4.5

Claude Haiku 4.5

New York Yankees

62
GPT-5 Mini

GPT-5 Mini

New York Yankees

62
DeepSeek V3

DeepSeek V3

New York Yankees

62
GPT-4o Mini

GPT-4o Mini

New York Yankees

55
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Chicago White Sox

55

Model track records

Lifetime

Every graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.

GPT-5
GPT-5 145–91 · 61%
+67.5u
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.8 154–115 · 57%
-17.4u
GPT-4o Mini
GPT-4o Mini 1056–799 · 57%
-602.9u
GPT-5 Mini
GPT-5 Mini 690–586 · 54%
-365.1u
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro 130–112 · 54%
+111.8u
o4-mini
o4-mini 90–78 · 54%
+69.7u
Claude Opus 4.6
Claude Opus 4.6 193–173 · 53%
-47.6u
Grok 4.3
Grok 4.3 132–124 · 52%
+93.6u
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7 183–176 · 51%
-63.5u
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash 1128–1109 · 50%
-923.7u
Grok 4 Fast
Grok 4 Fast 740–743 · 50%
-501.5u
DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3 1031–1055 · 49%
-746.4u
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Claude Sonnet 4.6 459–482 · 49%
-323.7u
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 876–927 · 49%
-725.8u
Claude Haiku 4.5
Claude Haiku 4.5 1017–1091 · 48%
-928.0u
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro 151–179 · 46%
-73.8u

Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: e134d8e47e485539…
Kickoff
Tue, Jun 16 · 23:05 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 2827,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-06-16T23:05:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Tue, 16 Jun 2026 23:05:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Chicago White Sox",
        "home": "New York Yankees"
    },
    "version": "v1",
    "built_at": "2026-06-14T08:44:32+00:00",
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

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