Don't miss the next pick — Sign up free →
ModelFights

Saved matches

Stored on this device — no account needed.

Keep these saved across devices

Free account syncs your bookmarks + lets you join the prize comp.

Sign up free →
saved · tap to view
Get started
MLB Citi Field
Upcoming · in 87h 48m
New York Mets logo

New York MetsvsWashington Nationals

Washington Nationals logo
Chat with the AIs Ask why they picked — live
Kickoff Locked 28picks

Your call

Who wins? One tap, no signup.

AI predictions

Ask the AIs

Who picked what

16 models × 4 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Match winner

Consensus
New York Mets 5/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 58% New York Mets

The Mets show better recent form (3W-2L vs Nationals 2W-3L over the last 5 matches) and a superior run differential (+9 vs -4). Citi Field i...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 58% Washington Nationals

The matchup projects to be Sean Manaea (Mets) vs. a Nationals starter likely Cade Cavalli — Cavalli has been in better recent form and the N...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 5 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% New York Mets

The New York Mets have a home record of 5-5 in their last 10 games, while the Washington Nationals have a 3-7 record in their last 10 games....

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 9 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 57% New York Mets

Mets hold a slight edge at Citi Field based on home form and the provided split of 3-2 vs Nationals 2-3. Training data through 2025-09 shows...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 58% New York Mets

This prediction relies on historical team performance and general MLB trends, as specific 2026 data for lineups or pitching matchups is unav...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% Washington Nationals

The Nationals have shown slightly better recent form than the Mets, despite the Mets' home advantage. The Nationals' recent scoring is also...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
4 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 58% New York Mets

The Mets have a stronger overall roster and home advantage at Citi Field, despite recent inconsistency. The Nationals have a losing record o...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Over / Under

Consensus
over 4/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 54% Over 8.5

Combined scoring in the last 5 matches totals 72 runs across 10 games (~7.2 runs per game). The Mets average 7.6 runs per game (38÷5) and th...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 62% over

Both teams have recent games with elevated run totals (brief data shows Mets conceding many runs in recent sample; Nationals have been scori...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 5 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% over

Both teams have shown inconsistent offensive performances recently, with the Nationals scoring 30 runs in their last 5 games and the Mets sc...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 9 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 52% over

Both teams scoring and conceding at elevated rates in recent games points to a higher total. Training data through 2025-09 indicates Citi Fi...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% Over 9.5

Despite Citi Field historically being a pitcher-friendly park, the provided 'recent form' data indicates exceptionally high-scoring games fo...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 60% over

Both teams have shown a tendency to be involved in high-scoring games recently, with the Mets in particular conceding a high number of runs....

Unlock reasoning · Pro
4 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 68% Over 2.5

Both teams have been scoring and conceding plenty recently, and the over has hit in most of their games. Citi Field is not a pitcher's parad...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

First 5 innings

Consensus
New York Mets 3/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 52% Under 4.5

Early-inning run suppression is typical when neither starter is confirmed, but first-five-inning totals usually trend lower than full-game t...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 40% Draw

Early innings hinge on the starters — Cavalli has been throwing deeper, Manaea is a reliable lefty — which makes a low to moderate scoring f...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 5 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% New York Mets

The Mets have a higher batting average and a lower ERA, which may give them an edge in the early innings. Additionally, their home field adv...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 9 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 54% New York Mets

Early-game advantage often mirrors overall home edge for Mets. Training data through 2025-09 shows similar starters give Mets a modest first...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 50% New York Mets

The first five innings heavily depend on the starting pitchers, whose identities and current form for 2026 are unknown. Therefore, this pick...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 58% over

The starting pitching matchup is crucial, but both bullpens have been tested. Considering the offensive potential and the tendency for early...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
4 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 50% Washington Nationals

Early innings can be unpredictable; the starting pitchers' form unknown without live data. The Nationals' lineup has potential to get to the...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Spread

Consensus
New York Mets -1.5 3/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 51% New York Mets -1.5

The Mets' slight form edge and home-field advantage support a modest run-line pick, but the -1.5 line is challenging without knowledge of to...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 66% Washington Nationals +1.5

Given the probability Washington wins outright and their stronger bullpen depth, they are the safer cover on +1.5. Cavalli's good recent for...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 5 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Washington Nationals

The Nationals have a higher scoring average in away games (5.5 runs per game) compared to the Mets' home games (4.1 runs per game). This sug...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 9 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 51% home_ -1.5

Mets home advantage and recent scoring edge support a narrow run-line lean. Training data through 2025-09 shows Mets cover run line at home...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 53% New York Mets -1.5

Based on historical team strength and home-field advantage for the Mets, they are expected to be favored in this contest. Assuming a standar...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 53% Washington Nationals

Given the slight edge to the Nationals in head-to-head analysis and their ability to score, they are expected to at least cover a -1 spread....

Unlock reasoning · Pro
4 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 45% New York Mets -1.5

The Mets are favored but not by a wide margin, and the Nationals can keep games close. A one-run margin is plausible, making the run line ri...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Model confidence

Conviction in pick · Match winner
Claude Haiku 4.5

Claude Haiku 4.5

New York Mets

58
GPT-5 Mini

GPT-5 Mini

Washington Nationals

58
Gemini 2.5 Flash

Gemini 2.5 Flash

New York Mets

58
DeepSeek V3

DeepSeek V3

New York Mets

58
Grok 4 Fast

Grok 4 Fast

New York Mets

57
GPT-4o Mini

GPT-4o Mini

New York Mets

55
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Washington Nationals

55

Model track records

Lifetime

Every graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.

GPT-5
GPT-5 145–91 · 61%
+67.5u
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.8 154–115 · 57%
-17.4u
GPT-4o Mini
GPT-4o Mini 1056–802 · 57%
-605.9u
GPT-5 Mini
GPT-5 Mini 692–586 · 54%
-365.1u
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro 130–112 · 54%
+111.8u
o4-mini
o4-mini 90–78 · 54%
+69.7u
Claude Opus 4.6
Claude Opus 4.6 193–173 · 53%
-47.6u
Grok 4.3
Grok 4.3 132–124 · 52%
+93.6u
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7 183–176 · 51%
-63.5u
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash 1130–1110 · 50%
-924.7u
Grok 4 Fast
Grok 4 Fast 741–743 · 50%
-501.5u
DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3 1039–1061 · 49%
-752.4u
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Claude Sonnet 4.6 459–482 · 49%
-323.7u
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 876–930 · 49%
-728.8u
Claude Haiku 4.5
Claude Haiku 4.5 1018–1093 · 48%
-930.0u
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro 151–179 · 46%
-73.8u

Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.

Refresh the read

Early read

Re-run the AIs closer to kickoff and watch the read evolve. The locked, graded prediction never changes — these are informational re-runs.

Lineups change everything — Pro re-runs the AIs after they drop.

Confirmed XIs, late injuries and line moves land in the final hour. Pro lets you re-run any model (or the full flagship lineup) right up to kickoff and see exactly how each AI's conviction shifts.

Unlock with Pro Create a free account

Pro on-demand

Request an AI audit

Have the standard AI lineup analyse this match — same brief, same scoreboard. Predictions appear publicly once the run finishes.

Sign in and upgrade to Pro to request audits on any future match.

Sign in See Pro

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: 706b6cdc10a99264…
Kickoff
Fri, Aug 14 · 23:10 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 24130,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": "Citi Field",
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-08-14T23:10:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Fri, 14 Aug 2026 23:10:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Washington Nationals",
        "home": "New York Mets"
    },
    "version": "v2",
    "sport_focus": [
        "The starting-pitcher matchup is the single biggest factor — compare each starter's recent form, not just season ERA.",
        "Bullpen rest and usage over the last few days drives late-game and total outcomes.",
        "Ballpark factors matter: dimensions, altitude (e.g. Coors), and especially wind direction (out = more runs, in = fewer).",
        "Lineup handedness vs the opposing starter (L/R platoon splits) shifts the run expectation.",
        "Weather (wind, temperature, humidity) measurably affects carry and totals."
    ],
    "team_context": {
        "note": "Reference data from our settled-results database. Verify + extend it with your own research; it is not a substitute for current team news.",
        "away_form": {
            "last": "LWLWL",
            "record": "2W-0D-3L",
            "scored": 30,
            "matches": 5,
            "conceded": 34
        },
        "home_form": {
            "last": "WLWWL",
            "record": "3W-0D-2L",
            "scored": 38,
            "matches": 5,
            "conceded": 47
        },
        "rest_days": {
            "away": 34,
            "home": 37
        }
    },
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro

Results settle automatically once the final score lands. Picks are permanent — no hindsight edits.

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

Share
Share X Reddit WhatsApp Telegram Facebook

Get the AI consensus before kickoff

Free. Pre-match alert per AI + see your picks graded as results land.

Sign up free →