MLB

Upcoming · in 80h 17m

New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies

Kickoff · Sun, Jun 28 · 17:40 GMT+0000

Picks locked at Jun 25 · 05:47 GMT+0000 24 picks recorded AIs split

Chat with the AIs about this match Pick the frontier models — Claude, GPT-5, Gemini, Grok & more — and watch them answer side by side, live, on the same brief. Open chat →

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified


                    hash:
                    77663c31980afc59…

Kickoff: Sun, Jun 28 · 17:40 GMT+0000
Markets: Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds: 15+ live books
Research: AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 7564,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-06-28T17:40:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Sun, 28 Jun 2026 17:40:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Philadelphia Phillies",
        "home": "New York Mets"
    },
    "version": "v1",
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Your call

Who wins? One tap, no signup.

AI predictions

5 markets · 6 models picked

Who picked what

16 models × 5 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Unlock flagship models

Model	Match winner ?	Over / Under ?	Spread ?	First 5 innings ?	First five innings over ?
Claude Opus 4.7 Flagship Anthropic · 65-91 -45.1u	Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Flagship Anthropic · 67-82 -31.4u	Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Flagship Anthropic · 36-31 -13.2u	Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Flagship Anthropic · 299-338 -243.9u	Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Anthropic · 439-524 -428.8u	55% Philadelphia Phillies	52% Over 8.5	48% Philadelphia Phillies -1.5	51% Over 4.5	—
Match winner ? 55% Philadelphia Phillies The Phillies have historically been stronger than the Mets in recent seasons, with better roster depth and pitching. This is a divisional ma... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 52% Over 8.5 Mets–Phillies matchups in June typically feature moderate run production from both offenses. Without specific pitcher matchup data, a total... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 48% Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 A -1.5 spread favoring Philadelphia is slightly steeper than the raw h2h advantage would suggest, making this a marginal call. The Mets at +... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 51% Over 4.5 Early-inning scoring in divisional matchups tends to escalate once lineups settle; 4.5 runs in the first five innings is a tight threshold.... Unlock reasoning · Pro First five innings over ? No pick on this market.
GPT-5 Flagship Openai · 30-18 -3.0u	Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
GPT-5 Mini Openai · 230-206 -66.0u	—	—	—	—	—
Match winner ? No pick on this market. Over / Under ? No pick on this market. Spread ? No pick on this market. First 5 innings ? No pick on this market. First five innings over ? No pick on this market.
GPT-4o Mini Openai · 372-373 -262.6u	55% Philadelphia Phillies	60% over	55% Philadelphia Phillies	55% Philadelphia Phillies	—
Match winner ? 55% Philadelphia Phillies The Philadelphia Phillies have shown strong performance recently, with a solid away record. The New York Mets have struggled at home, losing... Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched 1 source cited Over / Under ? 60% over Both teams have potent offenses, averaging over 4 runs per game in recent outings. Combined with the Mets' home struggles, this game is like... Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched 1 source cited Spread ? 55% Philadelphia Phillies Given the Phillies' recent form and the Mets' home struggles, the Phillies are likely to cover the -1 spread in this matchup. Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched 1 source cited First 5 innings ? 55% Philadelphia Phillies The Phillies have been strong in the early innings, often taking early leads. Combined with the Mets' tendency to start games slowly, the Ph... Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched 1 source cited First five innings over ? No pick on this market.
o4-mini Flagship Openai · 17-11 -4.7u	Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Grok 4.3 Flagship Xai · 48-36 -1.1u	Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Grok 4 Fast Xai · 414-424 -241.1u	53% New York Mets	51% over	49% Mets -1.5	52% Mets	—
Match winner ? 53% New York Mets Training data through 2023 shows Mets hold slight home edge in NL East matchups against Phillies. Both clubs typically strong but Mets benef... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 51% over Training data through 2023 indicates average run totals in Phillies-Mets games hover near or above common totals lines. Both offenses capabl... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 49% Mets -1.5 Training data through 2023 shows Mets home games often decided by narrow margins but home team covers run line at near 50 percent clip. Phil... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 52% Mets Training data through 2023 shows Mets starting pitching and early offense give them a modest edge in first-five results at home versus Phill... Unlock reasoning · Pro First five innings over ? No pick on this market.
Gemini 3.1 Pro Flagship Google · 37-42 -10.7u	Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Flagship Google · 63-97 -57.1u	Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Google · 406-450 -359.0u	52% New York Mets	53% Under 8.5 Runs	55% Philadelphia Phillies +1.5 Runs	40% New York Mets	—
Match winner ? 52% New York Mets This prediction is based solely on my training data up to early 2023, as real-time information for a 2026 event is unavailable. Historically... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 53% Under 8.5 Runs Based on historical trends from my training data, games between these divisional rivals often feature competitive pitching. While both teams... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 55% Philadelphia Phillies +1.5 Runs Given the expected close nature of this divisional game, the Phillies covering the +1.5 run line appears to be the more likely outcome. Whil... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 40% New York Mets Historically, the Mets often leverage strong starting pitching, which could give them an edge in the first five innings at home. However, th... Unlock reasoning · Pro First five innings over ? No pick on this market.
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Google · 380-484 -345.4u	55% Philadelphia Phillies	52% over	53% Philadelphia Phillies	—	51% over
Match winner ? 55% Philadelphia Phillies Based on general knowledge, the Philadelphia Phillies tend to have a slight edge over the New York Mets in head-to-head matchups. This is a... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 52% over Given that both teams are generally offensively capable and typically engage in competitive games, the total runs are likely to be around or... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 53% Philadelphia Phillies While the Phillies are predicted to win, the margin of victory is not expected to be consistently large. A spread of -1.5 away suggests they... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? No pick on this market. First five innings over ? 51% over Early game scoring potential for both teams is considered moderate. Expecting a slight edge towards over in the first five innings reflects... Unlock reasoning · Pro
DeepSeek V3 Deepseek · 456-512 -300.1u	55% New York Mets	50% Over 7.5	45% New York Mets -1.5	55% New York Mets	—
Match winner ? 55% New York Mets The game is at Citi Field, giving the Mets home-field advantage. Both teams are competitive, but the Mets have a slightly stronger overall r... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 50% Over 7.5 MLB average total runs per game in 2025 was around 9. This line is low for a league average game, suggesting a slight lean to Over. However,... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 45% New York Mets -1.5 Mets are favored but the run line -1.5 requires a win by 2+ runs. Close games are common, so the probability is slightly in favor of the Phi... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 55% New York Mets Similar to full game h2h, but with less randomness in a shorter time frame. The Mets' home advantage and stronger bullpen give a slight edge... Unlock reasoning · Pro First five innings over ? No pick on this market.
Consensus	Philadelphia Phillies 3/6	over 3/6	Philadelphia Phillies 2/6	New York Mets 2/5	over 1/1

Match winner

Consensus
Philadelphia Phillies 3/6

Claude Opus 4.7 Pro

Claude Opus 4.6 Pro

Claude Opus 4.8 Pro

Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro

Claude Haiku 4.5 55% Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies have historically been stronger than the Mets in recent seasons, with better roster depth and pitching. This is a divisional ma...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

GPT-5 Pro

GPT-5 Mini —

GPT-4o Mini 55% Philadelphia Phillies

The Philadelphia Phillies have shown strong performance recently, with a solid away record. The New York Mets have struggled at home, losing...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

🔍 researched 1 source cited

o4-mini Pro

Grok 4.3 Pro

Grok 4 Fast 53% New York Mets

Training data through 2023 shows Mets hold slight home edge in NL East matchups against Phillies. Both clubs typically strong but Mets benef...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro

Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro

Gemini 2.5 Flash 52% New York Mets

This prediction is based solely on my training data up to early 2023, as real-time information for a 2026 event is unavailable. Historically...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% Philadelphia Phillies

Based on general knowledge, the Philadelphia Phillies tend to have a slight edge over the New York Mets in head-to-head matchups. This is a...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

DeepSeek V3 55% New York Mets

The game is at Citi Field, giving the Mets home-field advantage. Both teams are competitive, but the Mets have a slightly stronger overall r...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Over / Under

Consensus
over 3/6

Claude Opus 4.7 Pro

Claude Opus 4.6 Pro

Claude Opus 4.8 Pro

Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro

Claude Haiku 4.5 52% Over 8.5

Mets–Phillies matchups in June typically feature moderate run production from both offenses. Without specific pitcher matchup data, a total...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

GPT-5 Pro

GPT-5 Mini —

GPT-4o Mini 60% over

Both teams have potent offenses, averaging over 4 runs per game in recent outings. Combined with the Mets' home struggles, this game is like...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

🔍 researched 1 source cited

o4-mini Pro

Grok 4.3 Pro

Grok 4 Fast 51% over

Training data through 2023 indicates average run totals in Phillies-Mets games hover near or above common totals lines. Both offenses capabl...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro

Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro

Gemini 2.5 Flash 53% Under 8.5 Runs

Based on historical trends from my training data, games between these divisional rivals often feature competitive pitching. While both teams...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 52% over

Given that both teams are generally offensively capable and typically engage in competitive games, the total runs are likely to be around or...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

DeepSeek V3 50% Over 7.5

MLB average total runs per game in 2025 was around 9. This line is low for a league average game, suggesting a slight lean to Over. However,...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Spread

Consensus
Philadelphia Phillies 2/6

Claude Opus 4.7 Pro

Claude Opus 4.6 Pro

Claude Opus 4.8 Pro

Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro

Claude Haiku 4.5 48% Philadelphia Phillies -1.5

A -1.5 spread favoring Philadelphia is slightly steeper than the raw h2h advantage would suggest, making this a marginal call. The Mets at +...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

GPT-5 Pro

GPT-5 Mini —

GPT-4o Mini 55% Philadelphia Phillies

Given the Phillies' recent form and the Mets' home struggles, the Phillies are likely to cover the -1 spread in this matchup.

Unlock reasoning · Pro

🔍 researched 1 source cited

o4-mini Pro

Grok 4.3 Pro

Grok 4 Fast 49% Mets -1.5

Training data through 2023 shows Mets home games often decided by narrow margins but home team covers run line at near 50 percent clip. Phil...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro

Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro

Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% Philadelphia Phillies +1.5 Runs

Given the expected close nature of this divisional game, the Phillies covering the +1.5 run line appears to be the more likely outcome. Whil...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 53% Philadelphia Phillies

While the Phillies are predicted to win, the margin of victory is not expected to be consistently large. A spread of -1.5 away suggests they...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

DeepSeek V3 45% New York Mets -1.5

Mets are favored but the run line -1.5 requires a win by 2+ runs. Close games are common, so the probability is slightly in favor of the Phi...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

First 5 innings

Consensus
New York Mets 2/5

Claude Opus 4.7 Pro

Claude Opus 4.6 Pro

Claude Opus 4.8 Pro

Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro

Claude Haiku 4.5 51% Over 4.5

Early-inning scoring in divisional matchups tends to escalate once lineups settle; 4.5 runs in the first five innings is a tight threshold....

Unlock reasoning · Pro

GPT-5 Pro

GPT-5 Mini —

GPT-4o Mini 55% Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies have been strong in the early innings, often taking early leads. Combined with the Mets' tendency to start games slowly, the Ph...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

🔍 researched 1 source cited

o4-mini Pro

Grok 4.3 Pro

Grok 4 Fast 52% Mets

Training data through 2023 shows Mets starting pitching and early offense give them a modest edge in first-five results at home versus Phill...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro

Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro

Gemini 2.5 Flash 40% New York Mets

Historically, the Mets often leverage strong starting pitching, which could give them an edge in the first five innings at home. However, th...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite —

DeepSeek V3 55% New York Mets

Similar to full game h2h, but with less randomness in a shorter time frame. The Mets' home advantage and stronger bullpen give a slight edge...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

First five innings over

Consensus
over 1/1

Claude Opus 4.7 Pro

Claude Opus 4.6 Pro

Claude Opus 4.8 Pro

Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro

Claude Haiku 4.5 —

GPT-5 Pro

GPT-5 Mini —

GPT-4o Mini —

o4-mini Pro

Grok 4.3 Pro

Grok 4 Fast —

Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro

Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro

Gemini 2.5 Flash —

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 51% over

Early game scoring potential for both teams is considered moderate. Expecting a slight edge towards over in the first five innings reflects...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

DeepSeek V3 —

Pro on-demand

Request an AI audit

Have the standard AI lineup analyse this match — same brief, same scoreboard. Predictions appear publicly once the run finishes.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro

Claude Haiku 4.5
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
Grok 4 Fast
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
DeepSeek V3
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
Gemini 2.5 Flash
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
GPT-4o Mini
4 tool calls · 1 source

1 citation captured — unlock with Pro

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