Don't miss the next pick — Sign up free →
ModelFights

Saved matches

Stored on this device — no account needed.

Keep these saved across devices

Free account syncs your bookmarks + lets you join the prize comp.

Sign up free →
saved · tap to view
Get started
MLB Major League Baseball · Citi Field
Upcoming · in 81h 25m
New York Mets logo

New York MetsvsLos Angeles Dodgers

Los Angeles Dodgers logo
Chat with the AIs Ask why they picked — live
Kickoff Locked 28picks

Your call

Who wins? One tap, no signup.

AI predictions

Ask the AIs

Who picked what

16 models × 4 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Over / Under

Consensus
over 3/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 55% Under 8.5

The combined run output over the last 5 games averages 5.8 runs per team per game (58 runs total across both teams in 10 team-games). July w...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 60% under

Citi Field is a noticeably pitcher-friendly park in 2026 (park factor ~0.92, HR factor ~0.86), which suppresses run totals; the weather fore...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 8 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 70% over

Both teams have potent offenses, with the Dodgers averaging 5.2 runs per game and the Mets 4.1. The starting pitchers, Freddy Peralta (4.66...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 53% over

Mets home games trend high-scoring per provided conceded totals of 47 in last 5. Both clubs rest 17 days suggesting fresh lineups capable of...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 98% Over 2.5

A total line of 2.5 runs for a Major League Baseball game is exceptionally low and highly unusual. Even in the lowest scoring contests, MLB...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 60% over

Both teams have shown a tendency for higher-scoring games recently, as indicated by the provided scores (Dodgers 20/5, Mets 38/47). While th...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
3 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 53% Over 8.5

Both teams have shown the ability to score, with the Mets averaging 7.6 runs per game in their last 5 and the Dodgers 4.0. Citi Field is neu...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

First 5 innings

Consensus
Los Angeles Dodgers 6/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 56% Under 4.5

Early-inning totals typically track 45–50% of full-game totals in MLB. Given the Under 8.5 lean on the full game and Citi Field's pitcher-fr...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 62% Los Angeles Dodgers

First-five innings lean toward the Dodgers because the series-projected matchup (Sheehan vs Peralta) shows both pitchers as hittable, but th...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 8 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers' strong offense and the Mets' pitching staff's higher ERA suggest the Dodgers are likely to lead after the first five innings. T...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 52% Los Angeles Dodgers

Starting pitcher advantage and Dodgers lineup quality point to early lead. Both teams rested extensively so early innings should reflect ful...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 50% Los Angeles Dodgers

The first five innings outcome is heavily influenced by starting pitchers, which are unknown for this future game in 2026. However, assuming...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 54% Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers have a strong starting pitcher and a lineup that typically performs well early in games. While the Mets' offense can be potent,...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
3 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Los Angeles Dodgers

Early innings favor the Dodgers' starter and lineup depth. The Mets' bullpen may struggle but not in the first 5. Based on training data thr...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Spread

Consensus
Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 3/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 53% Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5

The Dodgers' run differential advantage (+1 vs -9) and superior offensive consistency suggest they should win by a modest margin (1–2 runs)...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 57% Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5

Given the Dodgers' superior overall record and deeper lineup, they have a reasonable chance to win by multiple runs (run line -1.5) even whe...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 8 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 65% Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers' superior record and offensive capabilities suggest they are likely to win by at least one run. The Mets' pitching staff has a h...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 55% Los Angeles Dodgers

Dodgers superior talent projects to cover run line more often than not. Home team recent form shows defensive vulnerabilities with 47 runs a...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% Los Angeles Dodgers -1.0

Given the Dodgers' historical strength, they are more likely to win by multiple runs against the Mets. The -1.0 spread implies they need to...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 53% Los Angeles Dodgers

Given the Dodgers are slightly favored in the head-to-head market, they are also more likely to cover a small spread. Their ability to consi...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
3 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 35% Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5

The Dodgers are favored but a run line win by 2+ is less likely in a tight matchup. The Mets have home field and competitive talent, making...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Match winner

Consensus
Los Angeles Dodgers 7/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 58% Los Angeles Dodgers

Both teams are in equivalent form (3W-2L over last 5) and have identical rest (17 days), but the Dodgers' superior run differential (+1 vs M...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 68% Los Angeles Dodgers

Dodgers are the stronger team overall (65-38 vs 43-60) and their lineup depth gives them an edge against a Mets starter who has allowed simi...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 8 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 75% Los Angeles Dodgers

The Los Angeles Dodgers have a superior record (63-38) compared to the New York Mets (42-59). The Dodgers' offense is more potent, averaging...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 58% Los Angeles Dodgers

Dodgers have stronger historical roster depth and pitching staff than the Mets entering any given season. Both teams show similar 3-2 recent...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 58% Los Angeles Dodgers

Based on historical team strength and consistent performance from training data through mid-2024, the Los Angeles Dodgers are generally a st...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers have a stronger recent form and are generally considered the superior team in this matchup. While both teams have identical reco...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
3 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 58% Los Angeles Dodgers

Both teams have solid rosters, but the Dodgers' deeper lineup and superior pitching give them a slight edge. The Mets have been inconsistent...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Model confidence

Conviction in pick · Match winner
GPT-4o Mini

GPT-4o Mini

Los Angeles Dodgers

75
GPT-5 Mini

GPT-5 Mini

Los Angeles Dodgers

68
Claude Haiku 4.5

Claude Haiku 4.5

Los Angeles Dodgers

58
Grok 4 Fast

Grok 4 Fast

Los Angeles Dodgers

58
Gemini 2.5 Flash

Gemini 2.5 Flash

Los Angeles Dodgers

58
DeepSeek V3

DeepSeek V3

Los Angeles Dodgers

58
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Los Angeles Dodgers

55

Model track records

Lifetime

Every graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.

GPT-5
GPT-5 145–91 · 61%
+67.5u
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.8 154–115 · 57%
-17.4u
GPT-4o Mini
GPT-4o Mini 1054–799 · 57%
-602.9u
GPT-5 Mini
GPT-5 Mini 690–583 · 54%
-362.1u
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro 130–112 · 54%
+111.8u
o4-mini
o4-mini 90–78 · 54%
+69.7u
Claude Opus 4.6
Claude Opus 4.6 193–173 · 53%
-47.6u
Grok 4.3
Grok 4.3 132–124 · 52%
+93.6u
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7 183–176 · 51%
-63.5u
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash 1127–1107 · 50%
-921.7u
Grok 4 Fast
Grok 4 Fast 739–743 · 50%
-501.5u
DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3 1030–1054 · 49%
-745.4u
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Claude Sonnet 4.6 459–482 · 49%
-323.7u
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 875–925 · 49%
-723.8u
Claude Haiku 4.5
Claude Haiku 4.5 1016–1089 · 48%
-926.0u
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro 151–179 · 46%
-73.8u

Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.

Refresh the read

Early read

Re-run the AIs closer to kickoff and watch the read evolve. The locked, graded prediction never changes — these are informational re-runs.

Lineups change everything — Pro re-runs the AIs after they drop.

Confirmed XIs, late injuries and line moves land in the final hour. Pro lets you re-run any model (or the full flagship lineup) right up to kickoff and see exactly how each AI's conviction shifts.

Unlock with Pro Create a free account

Pro on-demand

Request an AI audit

Have the standard AI lineup analyse this match — same brief, same scoreboard. Predictions appear publicly once the run finishes.

Sign in and upgrade to Pro to request audits on any future match.

Sign in See Pro

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: ef8558d4eef858e1…
Kickoff
Sun, Jul 26 · 17:40 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 15782,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": "Citi Field",
        "league": "Major League Baseball",
        "starts_at": "2026-07-26T17:40:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Sun, 26 Jul 2026 17:40:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Los Angeles Dodgers",
        "home": "New York Mets"
    },
    "version": "v2",
    "sport_focus": [
        "The starting-pitcher matchup is the single biggest factor — compare each starter's recent form, not just season ERA.",
        "Bullpen rest and usage over the last few days drives late-game and total outcomes.",
        "Ballpark factors matter: dimensions, altitude (e.g. Coors), and especially wind direction (out = more runs, in = fewer).",
        "Lineup handedness vs the opposing starter (L/R platoon splits) shifts the run expectation.",
        "Weather (wind, temperature, humidity) measurably affects carry and totals."
    ],
    "team_context": {
        "note": "Reference data from our settled-results database. Verify + extend it with your own research; it is not a substitute for current team news.",
        "away_form": {
            "last": "WLWLW",
            "record": "3W-0D-2L",
            "scored": 20,
            "matches": 5,
            "conceded": 19
        },
        "home_form": {
            "last": "WLWWL",
            "record": "3W-0D-2L",
            "scored": 38,
            "matches": 5,
            "conceded": 47
        },
        "rest_days": {
            "away": 17,
            "home": 17
        }
    },
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro

Results settle automatically once the final score lands. Picks are permanent — no hindsight edits.

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

Share
Share X Reddit WhatsApp Telegram Facebook

Get the AI consensus before kickoff

Free. Pre-match alert per AI + see your picks graded as results land.

Sign up free →