Don't miss the next pick — Sign up free →
ModelFights

Saved matches

Stored on this device — no account needed.

Keep these saved across devices

Free account syncs your bookmarks + lets you join the prize comp.

Sign up free →
saved · tap to view
Get started
MLB
Upcoming · in 87h 24m
New York Mets logo

New York MetsvsKansas City Royals

Kansas City Royals logo
Chat with the AIs Ask why they picked — live
Kickoff Locked 28picks AIs split

Your call

Who wins? One tap, no signup.

AI predictions

Ask the AIs

Who picked what

16 models × 5 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Spread

Consensus
Kansas City Royals +1.5 3/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 55% Kansas City Royals -0.5

The Royals' extra rest day provides a marginal edge in a close matchup between two struggling teams. The Mets' home-field advantage is meani...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 54% Kansas City Royals +1.5

Given the closeness of these teams and the uncertainty in both starters' ability to produce long, dominant outings, the safer spread play is...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 7 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Kansas City Royals

The Royals have a slight edge in the all-time series and have been more successful on the road. The Mets have struggled recently, losing the...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 5 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 53% New York Mets

Home status and historical interleague results give New York the edge on the spread. Royals recent results indicate ongoing struggles on the...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 53% Kansas City Royals +1.5

With both teams exhibiting similar poor recent form and without specific 2026 player or pitcher information, predicting a multi-run victory...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 53% Kansas City Royals

The Royals, despite their poor form, are slightly favored due to a marginally better away record compared to the Mets' home struggles. The s...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
2 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 65% Kansas City Royals +1.5

Despite the Mets' slight edge to win outright, the Royals should keep it close enough to cover a 1.5-run spread. Kansas City's pitching staf...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

First 5 innings

Consensus
New York Mets 3/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 60% Under 4.5

Early-inning scoring typically mirrors overall offensive capability. Both teams' weak offensive output (Mets 2.8 RPG, Royals 2.4 RPG) over t...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Kansas City Royals

The Royals have a slight edge in the all-time series and have been more successful on the road. The Mets have struggled recently, losing the...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 5 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 51% New York Mets

Early-game edge remains with the home club due to park factors and typical starter matchups in training data. Form indicators are too stale...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 53% New York Mets

The first five innings are heavily influenced by the starting pitchers. Without specific starter information for this 2026 game, I'll lean o...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 54% Kansas City Royals

Considering the recent struggles of both teams, the first five innings are likely to reflect the overall game trend. The Royals have shown a...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
2 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% New York Mets

The first five innings often favor the home team due to last at-bat advantage, and the Mets have a slightly stronger early-game bullpen and...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Match winner

Consensus
New York Mets 4/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 58% Kansas City Royals

Both teams are in poor recent form (1-4 in last 5), but Kansas City has an extra rest day (4 vs 3) which provides a modest edge in recovery...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 58% New York Mets

With Freddy Peralta projected for the Mets and Seth Lugo for the Royals, I favor the Mets at Citi Field because the Mets lineup (Soto, Biche...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 7 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Kansas City Royals

The Royals have a slight edge in the all-time series and have been more successful on the road. The Mets have struggled recently, losing the...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 5 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 55% New York Mets

Mets hold home-field advantage at Citi Field against a Royals side that enters on a 1-4 skid. Training data through 2025-09 shows New York t...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% New York Mets

Based on my training data up to my last update, the New York Mets typically hold a slight home-field advantage against similarly struggling...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% Kansas City Royals

Both teams are in poor recent form, with identical 1-4 records over their last 5 games. However, the Royals have a slightly better away reco...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
2 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 58% New York Mets

The Mets have a slight edge playing at home with one extra rest day, offsetting their poor recent form. Kansas City's lineup is struggling,...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Over / Under

Consensus
over 4/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 62% Under 8.5

Both offenses are severely underperforming: Mets average 2.8 RPG and Royals 2.4 RPG over the last 5 matches, combining for just 5.2 runs per...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 62% over

Both probable starters (Peralta and Lugo) have mid-4.00 ERAs in 2026 and both teams have given up a lot of runs in recent games; Citi Field...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 7 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% over

Both teams have struggled offensively this season, with the Royals averaging 4.2 runs per game and the Mets averaging 4.0 runs per game. How...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 5 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 52% over

Both lineups have shown offensive capability in recent seasons per historical norms. July night games at Citi Field trend slightly above ave...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 52% Under 8.5

Given the poor offensive output from both the Royals (12 runs in 5 games) and the Mets (14 runs in 5 games) in their recent form, a low-scor...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 52% over

Given the poor form of both teams, there's a possibility of a low-scoring game. However, with the potential for both offenses to underperfor...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
2 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 52% under

Both teams have been offensively limited recently, averaging combined 5.2 runs per game over their last five. Pitcher matchups in MLB often...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

First five innings 4.5

Consensus
under 1/1
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 —
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 57% under

Starters Peralta and Lugo are projected to start and both typically work through the first five innings; early-inning totals often stay cont...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 7 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini —
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast —
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash —
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite —
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 —

Model confidence

Conviction in pick · Match winner
Claude Haiku 4.5

Claude Haiku 4.5

Kansas City Royals

58
GPT-5 Mini

GPT-5 Mini

New York Mets

58
DeepSeek V3

DeepSeek V3

New York Mets

58
GPT-4o Mini

GPT-4o Mini

Kansas City Royals

55
Grok 4 Fast

Grok 4 Fast

New York Mets

55
Gemini 2.5 Flash

Gemini 2.5 Flash

New York Mets

55
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Kansas City Royals

55

Model track records

Lifetime

Every graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.

GPT-5
GPT-5 123–84 · 59%
+72.2u
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.8 132–106 · 55%
-10.7u
GPT-4o Mini
GPT-4o Mini 773–656 · 54%
-459.9u
o4-mini
o4-mini 76–68 · 53%
+77.9u
GPT-5 Mini
GPT-5 Mini 551–500 · 52%
-280.7u
Claude Opus 4.6
Claude Opus 4.6 172–162 · 52%
-39.9u
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro 110–104 · 51%
+114.9u
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7 165–162 · 50%
-51.8u
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash 889–909 · 49%
-723.7u
Grok 4 Fast
Grok 4 Fast 637–654 · 49%
-412.5u
Grok 4.3
Grok 4.3 111–115 · 49%
+99.0u
DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3 833–875 · 49%
-566.4u
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 696–747 · 48%
-545.8u
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Claude Sonnet 4.6 437–472 · 48%
-317.0u
Claude Haiku 4.5
Claude Haiku 4.5 821–949 · 46%
-786.0u
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro 134–168 · 44%
-64.6u

Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.

Refresh the read

Early read

Re-run the AIs closer to kickoff and watch the read evolve. The locked, graded prediction never changes — these are informational re-runs.

Lineups change everything — Pro re-runs the AIs after they drop.

Confirmed XIs, late injuries and line moves land in the final hour. Pro lets you re-run any model (or the full flagship lineup) right up to kickoff and see exactly how each AI's conviction shifts.

Unlock with Pro Create a free account

Pro on-demand

Request an AI audit

Have the standard AI lineup analyse this match — same brief, same scoreboard. Predictions appear publicly once the run finishes.

Sign in and upgrade to Pro to request audits on any future match.

Sign in See Pro

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: c9b1f136fe5ef642…
Kickoff
Tue, Jul 7 · 23:10 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 10176,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-07-07T23:10:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Tue, 07 Jul 2026 23:10:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Kansas City Royals",
        "home": "New York Mets"
    },
    "version": "v2",
    "sport_focus": [
        "The starting-pitcher matchup is the single biggest factor — compare each starter's recent form, not just season ERA.",
        "Bullpen rest and usage over the last few days drives late-game and total outcomes.",
        "Ballpark factors matter: dimensions, altitude (e.g. Coors), and especially wind direction (out = more runs, in = fewer).",
        "Lineup handedness vs the opposing starter (L/R platoon splits) shifts the run expectation.",
        "Weather (wind, temperature, humidity) measurably affects carry and totals."
    ],
    "team_context": {
        "note": "Reference data from our settled-results database. Verify + extend it with your own research; it is not a substitute for current team news.",
        "away_form": {
            "last": "LLLWL",
            "record": "1W-0D-4L",
            "scored": 12,
            "matches": 5,
            "conceded": 25
        },
        "home_form": {
            "last": "LLWLL",
            "record": "1W-0D-4L",
            "scored": 14,
            "matches": 5,
            "conceded": 21
        },
        "rest_days": {
            "away": 4,
            "home": 3
        }
    },
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro

Results settle automatically once the final score lands. Picks are permanent — no hindsight edits.

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

Share
Share X Reddit WhatsApp Telegram Facebook

Get the AI consensus before kickoff

Free. Pre-match alert per AI + see your picks graded as results land.

Sign up free →