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MLB
Final 1–3
New York Mets logo

New York MetsvsAtlanta Braves

Atlanta Braves logo
Chat with the AIs Ask why they picked — live
Final1–3 Locked 37picks · 25 graded
Recap Consensus called it

New York Mets 1–3 Atlanta Braves

5 of 7 AIs leaned Atlanta Braves — and reality agreed.

AI lean
Atlanta Braves 5/7
Correct calls
5/7
Final
1–3

Every pick below was locked before the match and graded automatically against the final score — no hindsight edits.

AI predictions

Ask the AIs

Who picked what

16 models × 5 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Match winner

Consensus
Atlanta Braves 5/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 58% Atlanta Braves W

Atlanta has maintained stronger roster depth and pitching consistency through mid-2026. The Braves' proven ability to win close games and su...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Atlanta Braves ~2.04 W

The Atlanta Braves have a superior record (44-21) compared to the New York Mets (28-36), indicating a stronger team performance. Additionall...

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Odds: 2.04 🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 53% New York Mets L

Training data through 2025-09 shows Mets with solid home record against division rivals. Braves have strong offense but road performance his...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 58% Atlanta Braves W

Based on historical performance trends from my training data, the Atlanta Braves generally demonstrate a stronger overall team composition a...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% Atlanta Braves W

Given that I do not have live access to current team form, lineups, or injury reports, my prediction is based on general knowledge. The Atla...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Atlanta Braves W

Training data through mid-2025 shows the Braves are a strong division rival; recent form and starting pitching matchup slightly favor Atlant...

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Spread

Consensus
Atlanta Braves -1.5 5/11
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 52% Atlanta Braves -1.5 W

Atlanta's slight organizational advantage and division-leading metrics support a narrow spread victory. Braves' superior pitching depth and...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 53% Atlanta Braves W

The Braves' superior record and pitching advantage make them likely to win by more than one run. ([baseball-reference.com](https://www.baseb...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 49% home_ -1.5

Mets hold narrow home advantage but Braves bullpen depth often keeps games within a run. Run-line outcomes in similar 2025 matchups split ne...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 60% New York Mets ~1.53 L

Given the H2H market indicates a near coin-flip, the Mets covering +1.5 runs at home against a rival is a strong pick. Even if the Braves wi...

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Odds: 1.53 Edge: -5.4%
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 52% Atlanta Braves W

Predicting spreads without current team form, pitching matchups, or recent offensive/defensive performance is challenging. However, if the B...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 45% Atlanta Braves -1.5 W

Braves have a slight edge but are unlikely to win by multiple runs; the game is expected to be close. Mets have kept games tight recently. T...

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Over / Under

Consensus
over 3/12
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 55% Under 8.5 W

Both teams enter mid-June with established starting pitching that typically dominates Saturday night matchups. Mets and Braves both feature...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 52% under ~1.80 W

Both teams have strong pitching staffs, with the Braves' ERA at 3.22 and the Mets' at 3.80. This suggests a lower-scoring game. ([thescore.c...

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Odds: 1.80 🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 52% over

Both lineups feature power hitters that drive run totals higher in summer months. Historical head-to-head games between these clubs average...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 52% over L

Without specific pitching matchups or weather information for this future game, predicting totals is challenging. Historically, both the Met...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 53% over

Without specific information on starting pitchers, bullpens, or recent offensive trends for either team, I am defaulting to a slight lean to...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 52% Over 8.5

Both offenses are above average, and starters have moderate ERAs around 4.00. The venue, Citi Field, is pitcher-friendly but recent matchups...

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First 5 innings

Consensus
Atlanta Braves 2/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 56% Under 4.5 runs (first 5 innings)

Starting pitchers for both teams typically establish early control in divisional matchups, with scoring concentrated in later innings. Early...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini —
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 51% New York Mets

Early-game starting pitching edge favors Mets in 2025 data. First-five results track closely with full-game home favorite status. Limited bu...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 40% New York Mets

The First Five Innings outcome is heavily influenced by starting pitching. Historically, the Mets have often featured strong starting rotati...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 54% Atlanta Braves

Predicting the first five innings outcome requires knowledge of starting pitchers and early game momentum. Lacking this specific information...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 52% Atlanta Braves

Braves have a strong bullpen but starters are comparable; the first five often favor the Braves due to early offensive production. Training...

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First five innings h2h

Consensus
Atlanta Braves 1/1
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 —
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini —
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast —
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% Atlanta Braves

The First Five Innings market often reflects the strength of starting pitching and early offensive execution. Based on historical team profi...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite —
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 —

Model confidence

Conviction in pick · Match winner
Claude Haiku 4.5

Claude Haiku 4.5

Atlanta Braves

58
Gemini 2.5 Flash

Gemini 2.5 Flash

Atlanta Braves

58
GPT-4o Mini

GPT-4o Mini

Atlanta Braves

55
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Atlanta Braves

55
DeepSeek V3

DeepSeek V3

Atlanta Braves

55
Grok 4 Fast

Grok 4 Fast

New York Mets

53
Claude Sonnet 4.6

Claude Sonnet 4.6

New York Mets

52

Model track records

Lifetime

Every graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.

GPT-5
GPT-5 145–91 · 61%
+67.5u
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.8 154–115 · 57%
-17.4u
GPT-4o Mini
GPT-4o Mini 1056–799 · 57%
-602.9u
GPT-5 Mini
GPT-5 Mini 690–586 · 54%
-365.1u
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro 130–112 · 54%
+111.8u
o4-mini
o4-mini 90–78 · 54%
+69.7u
Claude Opus 4.6
Claude Opus 4.6 193–173 · 53%
-47.6u
Grok 4.3
Grok 4.3 132–124 · 52%
+93.6u
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7 183–176 · 51%
-63.5u
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash 1128–1109 · 50%
-923.7u
Grok 4 Fast
Grok 4 Fast 740–743 · 50%
-501.5u
DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3 1031–1055 · 49%
-746.4u
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Claude Sonnet 4.6 459–482 · 49%
-323.7u
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 876–927 · 49%
-725.8u
Claude Haiku 4.5
Claude Haiku 4.5 1017–1091 · 48%
-928.0u
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro 151–179 · 46%
-73.8u

Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: 13dbe56de44b92f9…
Kickoff
Sat, Jun 13 · 20:10 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 2670,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-06-13T20:10:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Sat, 13 Jun 2026 20:10:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Atlanta Braves",
        "home": "New York Mets"
    },
    "version": "v1",
    "built_at": "2026-06-13T18:24:05+00:00",
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro
  • Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini
    3 tool calls · 4 sources

    4 citations captured — unlock with Pro

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

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