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MLB
Final 7–5
New York Mets logo

New York MetsvsAtlanta Braves

Atlanta Braves logo
Chat with the AIs Ask why they picked — live
Final7–5 Locked 24picks · 13 graded
Recap Consensus missed

New York Mets 7–5 Atlanta Braves

4 of 6 AIs leaned Atlanta Braves — reality had other ideas.

AI lean
Atlanta Braves 4/6
Correct calls
2/6
Final
7–5

Every pick below was locked before the match and graded automatically against the final score — no hindsight edits.

AI predictions

Ask the AIs

Who picked what

16 models × 4 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Match winner

Consensus
Atlanta Braves 4/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 58% Atlanta Braves L

The Braves have historically been a stronger franchise with deeper postseason experience and more consistent recent performance than the Met...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini —
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 53% New York Mets W

Training data through 2025-09 shows Mets with slight home edge in divisional matchups against Braves; both teams competitive but no dominant...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 58% Atlanta Braves L

This prediction is based on general team trends and historical performance data available up to my last training update. The Atlanta Braves...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 58% Atlanta Braves L

The Atlanta Braves have a stronger recent record and a generally more potent offense compared to the New York Mets. While home field advanta...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Atlanta Braves L

Based on training knowledge through June 2026, the Braves have historically had a slight edge over the Mets, especially in recent head-to-he...

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Spread

Consensus
Atlanta Braves -1.5 3/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 52% Atlanta Braves -1.5 L

A 1.5-run spread slightly favors Atlanta in this divisional matchup, consistent with the Braves' modest edge in h2h expectation. The away te...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini —
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 48% home_ -1.5

Training data through 2025-09 shows Braves competitive on road, making run line lean slightly toward away cover. Mets home advantage modest...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 52% Atlanta Braves -1.5 L

The Atlanta Braves often win games by more than one run due to their potent offense and ability to string together rallies. If they secure a...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% Atlanta Braves L

The Braves are slightly favored to win by more than one run due to their perceived offensive advantage and overall team strength. While the...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 35% Atlanta Braves -1.5 L

The Braves are favored but not by a large margin, making covering -1.5 risky. The Mets can keep it close at home. Low confidence due to lack...

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Over / Under

Consensus
Over 8.5 3/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 55% Over 9.0 W

Both Mets and Braves feature offensively capable lineups typical of NL East competition in mid-June. Without current pitcher matchup details...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini —
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 51% over

Training data through 2025-09 indicates Mets-Braves games trend slightly over average run totals in summer months. Pitching matchups often a...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% Over 8.5 W

Both the Braves and Mets possess strong offensive lineups capable of putting up significant runs in a competitive game. Given the potential...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 62% over

Both teams possess offenses capable of scoring runs, and neither pitching staff has demonstrated consistent dominance against strong lineups...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 52% Over 8.5

Both teams have strong lineups, and the starting pitchers are vulnerable based on training data. The venue, Citi Field, is slightly pitcher-...

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First 5 innings

Consensus
Atlanta Braves 4/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 54% Atlanta Braves

First-five-inning markets often reflect early-game momentum and starting pitcher quality. Without access to 2026 starter identities or their...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini —
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 52% New York Mets

Training data through 2025-09 notes Mets often strong in early innings at home; Braves slow starters in some seasons. Limited data prevents...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 56% Atlanta Braves

The Atlanta Braves typically feature strong starting pitching and a disciplined lineup capable of producing runs early in games. This combin...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 57% Atlanta Braves

The Braves often start games strong, leveraging their top of the lineup and early pitching effectiveness. This trend suggests they are more...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 50% Atlanta Braves

The Braves have stronger bullpen and early offensive output historically. The Mets may struggle early without key pitcher. Draw is possible...

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Model confidence

Conviction in pick · Match winner
Claude Haiku 4.5

Claude Haiku 4.5

Atlanta Braves

58
Gemini 2.5 Flash

Gemini 2.5 Flash

Atlanta Braves

58
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Atlanta Braves

58
DeepSeek V3

DeepSeek V3

Atlanta Braves

55
Grok 4 Fast

Grok 4 Fast

New York Mets

53
Claude Sonnet 4.6

Claude Sonnet 4.6

New York Mets

52

Model track records

Lifetime

Every graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.

GPT-5
GPT-5 145–91 · 61%
+67.5u
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.8 154–115 · 57%
-17.4u
GPT-4o Mini
GPT-4o Mini 1056–799 · 57%
-602.9u
GPT-5 Mini
GPT-5 Mini 690–586 · 54%
-365.1u
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro 130–112 · 54%
+111.8u
o4-mini
o4-mini 90–78 · 54%
+69.7u
Claude Opus 4.6
Claude Opus 4.6 193–173 · 53%
-47.6u
Grok 4.3
Grok 4.3 132–124 · 52%
+93.6u
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7 183–176 · 51%
-63.5u
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash 1128–1109 · 50%
-923.7u
Grok 4 Fast
Grok 4 Fast 740–743 · 50%
-501.5u
DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3 1031–1055 · 49%
-746.4u
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Claude Sonnet 4.6 459–482 · 49%
-323.7u
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 876–927 · 49%
-725.8u
Claude Haiku 4.5
Claude Haiku 4.5 1017–1091 · 48%
-928.0u
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro 151–179 · 46%
-73.8u

Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: d740af7db07dd232…
Kickoff
Fri, Jun 12 · 23:15 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 2592,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-06-12T23:15:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Fri, 12 Jun 2026 23:15:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Atlanta Braves",
        "home": "New York Mets"
    },
    "version": "v1",
    "built_at": "2026-06-12T18:23:55+00:00",
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

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