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MLB
Final 5–4
Minnesota Twins logo

Minnesota TwinsvsSt.Louis Cardinals

St.Louis Cardinals logo
Chat with the AIs Ask why they picked — live
Final5–4 Locked 24picks · 11 graded
Recap Consensus called it

Minnesota Twins 5–4 St.Louis Cardinals

All 6 AIs backed Minnesota Twins — and reality agreed.

AI lean
Minnesota Twins 6/6
Correct calls
6/6
Final
5–4

Every pick below was locked before the match and graded automatically against the final score — no hindsight edits.

AI predictions

Ask the AIs

Who picked what

16 models × 4 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Spread

Consensus
Minnesota Twins -1.5 4/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 54% Minnesota Twins -1.5 L

The Twins' home-field advantage and slightly superior roster depth support a small run spread in their favor. A run-and-a-half spread is mod...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini —
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 52% home_ -1.5

Home favorite status gives Twins -1.5 value in projected close game. Cardinals bullpen fatigue patterns noted in prior seasons. Training kno...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 48% Minnesota Twins -1.5 L

Given the general competitive balance of the teams and the speculative H2H pick for the Twins, predicting a win by more than one run is a fu...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 53% St.Louis Cardinals

Given the slight favor towards the home team in head-to-head, predicting the spread requires considering potential upsets or close games. Th...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 40% Minnesota Twins -1.5 L

While the Twins are favored, covering the -1.5 run line requires a comfortable win. The Cardinals have kept games close recently, making the...

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Over / Under

Consensus
Over 8.5 3/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 55% Over 8.5

Both the Twins and Cardinals are mid-tier offensive teams with capable lineups and bullpens that can be inconsistent. A Sunday afternoon mat...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini —
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 51% over

Average pitching matchups expected; Twins park plays neutral to hitter-friendly. Historical Cardinals games trend slightly over total. Train...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 48% Over 8.5 W

Historical MLB scoring trends and the general offensive capabilities of both teams, based on information up to my training data cutoff, sugg...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 52% over

Without specific pitching matchups or recent scoring trends, it's difficult to make a definitive call. However, MLB games often see a modera...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 52% Over 8.5

Both bullpens are mediocre and temperatures are moderate, favoring scoring. Recent head-to-head games in Minnesota have averaged over 9 runs...

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First 5 innings

Consensus
Minnesota Twins 4/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 56% Under 4.5

First-five-innings markets are typically lower-scoring affairs because starting pitchers are fresh and the bullpen hasn't been taxed yet. Ca...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini —
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 53% Minnesota Twins

Early game edge to home starter; Twins lineup historically stronger in first five frames. Cardinals slower starts on road per past data. Tra...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 50% Minnesota Twins

Based on the general historical competitive standing of both teams and the home-field advantage for the Minnesota Twins, they are marginally...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 54% Minnesota Twins

Early game performance is often influenced by starting pitchers and initial offensive momentum. The home team typically starts stronger due...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 48% Minnesota Twins

The Cardinals' starting pitching has been slightly better early in games, while the Twins' offense tends to heat up later. First 5 innings c...

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Match winner

Consensus
Minnesota Twins 6/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 58% Minnesota Twins W

The Twins have been a stronger offensive team in recent seasons with better run production and bullpen depth. St. Louis has competitive rost...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini —
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 54% Minnesota Twins W

Twins hold slight home edge in neutral matchup; both clubs project as middling .500 teams per training data through 2025-09. Cardinals road...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 50% Minnesota Twins W

Based on general historical team performance trends up to my training data cutoff, both teams are competitive in MLB. The Minnesota Twins re...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% Minnesota Twins W

Based on my training data, the Minnesota Twins generally perform well at home. While specific recent form for this exact matchup is unavaila...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Minnesota Twins W

The Twins have a strong home record and recent offensive surge, while the Cardinals have inconsistent pitching and key injuries. Training da...

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Model confidence

Conviction in pick · Match winner
Claude Haiku 4.5

Claude Haiku 4.5

Minnesota Twins

58
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Minnesota Twins

55
DeepSeek V3

DeepSeek V3

Minnesota Twins

55
Claude Sonnet 4.6

Claude Sonnet 4.6

Minnesota Twins

54
Grok 4 Fast

Grok 4 Fast

Minnesota Twins

54
Gemini 2.5 Flash

Gemini 2.5 Flash

Minnesota Twins

50

Model track records

Lifetime

Every graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.

GPT-5
GPT-5 145–91 · 61%
+67.5u
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.8 154–115 · 57%
-17.4u
GPT-4o Mini
GPT-4o Mini 1056–799 · 57%
-602.9u
GPT-5 Mini
GPT-5 Mini 690–586 · 54%
-365.1u
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro 130–112 · 54%
+111.8u
o4-mini
o4-mini 90–78 · 54%
+69.7u
Claude Opus 4.6
Claude Opus 4.6 193–173 · 53%
-47.6u
Grok 4.3
Grok 4.3 132–124 · 52%
+93.6u
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7 183–176 · 51%
-63.5u
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash 1128–1109 · 50%
-923.7u
Grok 4 Fast
Grok 4 Fast 740–743 · 50%
-501.5u
DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3 1031–1055 · 49%
-746.4u
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Claude Sonnet 4.6 459–482 · 49%
-323.7u
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 876–927 · 49%
-725.8u
Claude Haiku 4.5
Claude Haiku 4.5 1017–1091 · 48%
-928.0u
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro 151–179 · 46%
-73.8u

Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: 80112d64ad70ca1b…
Kickoff
Sun, Jun 14 · 18:10 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 2758,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-06-14T18:10:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Sun, 14 Jun 2026 18:10:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "St.Louis Cardinals",
        "home": "Minnesota Twins"
    },
    "version": "v1",
    "built_at": "2026-06-14T00:29:19+00:00",
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

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