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MLB
Final 9–8
Minnesota Twins logo

Minnesota TwinsvsSt.Louis Cardinals

St.Louis Cardinals logo
Chat with the AIs Ask why they picked — live
Final9–8 Locked 24picks · 11 graded
Recap Consensus called it

Minnesota Twins 9–8 St.Louis Cardinals

5 of 6 AIs leaned Minnesota Twins — and reality agreed.

AI lean
Minnesota Twins 5/6
Correct calls
5/6
Final
9–8

Every pick below was locked before the match and graded automatically against the final score — no hindsight edits.

AI predictions

Ask the AIs

Who picked what

16 models × 4 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Match winner

Consensus
Minnesota Twins 5/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 58% Minnesota Twins W

The Twins have been a stronger offensive team in recent seasons and typically perform well at home in June. The Cardinals have experienced r...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini —
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 52% Minnesota Twins W

Predicting from training knowledge through 2025 with no live 2026 data available. Twins hold home-field advantage in interleague play and Ca...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 53% Minnesota Twins W

This prediction is based on general team tendencies and historical performance from my training data through late 2025, as specific real-tim...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% St.Louis Cardinals L

Without access to live data, I am relying on my training knowledge up to 2025-09. Based on general historical performance trends and the com...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Minnesota Twins W

Training data through 2025-09. The Twins have a strong home record at Target Field, while the Cardinals have struggled on the road this seas...

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Spread

Consensus
Minnesota Twins -1.5 3/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 54% Minnesota Twins -1.5 L

Home-field advantage and the Twins' superior regular-season record typically result in small run-line edges. A -1.5 spread reflects the expe...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini —
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 49% home_ -1.5

Predicting from training knowledge through 2025 with no live 2026 data available. Close matchup expected; spread leans slightly against home...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% St.Louis Cardinals +1.5 W

Given the expectation of a close game based on the general strength of both teams from my training data, the St. Louis Cardinals +1.5 offers...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 53% St.Louis Cardinals

Given the slight edge assigned to the St. Louis Cardinals in the head-to-head market and the general unpredictability of baseball scorelines...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 45% Minnesota Twins -1.5 L

Training data through 2025-09. A -1.5 spread requires the Twins to win by at least 2 runs. Given the uncertainty without current data, the C...

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First 5 innings

Consensus
Minnesota Twins 4/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 56% Minnesota Twins

Early-game momentum often favors the home team with established routines and fan support. Twins starting pitchers have traditionally perform...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini —
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 50% Minnesota Twins

Predicting from training knowledge through 2025 with no live 2026 data available. Even first-five lean given lack of starting pitcher data o...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 40% Minnesota Twins

Predicting the first five innings for a future game is highly speculative without starting pitcher information; this pick is based on genera...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 54% St.Louis Cardinals

Predicting the first five innings in baseball is highly dependent on starting pitchers, which is unavailable with my current knowledge. Howe...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 53% Minnesota Twins

Training data through 2025-09. The Twins' starting pitching has been solid historically, and home advantage often factors in the first five...

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Over / Under

Consensus
Over 8.5 3/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 55% Over 8.5

Both teams feature competitive offenses and historically play in relatively high-scoring June matchups. The Twins' lineup typically generate...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini —
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 51% over

Predicting from training knowledge through 2025 with no live 2026 data available. Typical MLB scoring trends favor slight lean to overs in i...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 51% Over 8.5 W

This prediction for a June 2026 game relies on my training data's understanding of typical MLB scoring environments and the general offensiv...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 52% over

My training knowledge indicates that MLB games, on average, tend to have a total score that slightly favors the 'over' when specific context...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 52% Over 8.5

Training data through 2025-09. Both teams have average to above-average offenses, and Target Field has neutral park factors. Without current...

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Model confidence

Conviction in pick · Match winner
Claude Haiku 4.5

Claude Haiku 4.5

Minnesota Twins

58
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

St.Louis Cardinals

55
DeepSeek V3

DeepSeek V3

Minnesota Twins

55
Claude Sonnet 4.6

Claude Sonnet 4.6

Minnesota Twins

54
Gemini 2.5 Flash

Gemini 2.5 Flash

Minnesota Twins

53
Grok 4 Fast

Grok 4 Fast

Minnesota Twins

52

Model track records

Lifetime

Every graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.

GPT-5
GPT-5 145–91 · 61%
+67.5u
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.8 154–115 · 57%
-17.4u
GPT-4o Mini
GPT-4o Mini 1056–799 · 57%
-602.9u
GPT-5 Mini
GPT-5 Mini 690–586 · 54%
-365.1u
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro 130–112 · 54%
+111.8u
o4-mini
o4-mini 90–78 · 54%
+69.7u
Claude Opus 4.6
Claude Opus 4.6 193–173 · 53%
-47.6u
Grok 4.3
Grok 4.3 132–124 · 52%
+93.6u
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7 183–176 · 51%
-63.5u
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash 1128–1109 · 50%
-923.7u
Grok 4 Fast
Grok 4 Fast 740–743 · 50%
-501.5u
DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3 1031–1055 · 49%
-746.4u
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Claude Sonnet 4.6 459–482 · 49%
-323.7u
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 876–927 · 49%
-725.8u
Claude Haiku 4.5
Claude Haiku 4.5 1017–1091 · 48%
-928.0u
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro 151–179 · 46%
-73.8u

Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: 5ae19a152aea2777…
Kickoff
Sat, Jun 13 · 00:10 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 2601,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-06-13T00:10:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Sat, 13 Jun 2026 00:10:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "St.Louis Cardinals",
        "home": "Minnesota Twins"
    },
    "version": "v1",
    "built_at": "2026-06-12T18:27:57+00:00",
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

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