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MLB Field of Dreams
Upcoming · in 86h 54m
Minnesota Twins logo

Minnesota TwinsvsPhiladelphia Phillies

Philadelphia Phillies logo
Chat with the AIs Ask why they picked — live
Kickoff Locked 28picks

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AI predictions

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Who picked what

16 models × 5 markets · click a row to see reasoning

First 5 innings

Consensus
Minnesota Twins 3/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 52% Under 4.5

Early innings typically feature lower scoring as batters adjust to starting pitchers and bullpen depth is not yet tested. Without specific s...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies' recent offensive performance and the favorable ballpark conditions suggest they will have a slight lead after the first five i...

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🔍 researched 2 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 51% Minnesota Twins

Early-game lineups favor the Twins given their recent offensive surge and home start. Bullpen usage patterns and rest days are comparable, l...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 58% Minnesota Twins

The Twins' strong recent form, characterized by scoring 5.6 runs per game while only conceding 3.2 runs, suggests early-game dominance. The...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 58% over

Both starting pitchers' effectiveness needs to be considered, but recent offensive trends for both teams suggest they can put runs on the bo...

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4 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Minnesota Twins

The Twins' recent scoring output suggests they get off to strong starts, which is critical for the first five innings. Their lineup has been...

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Match winner

Consensus
Minnesota Twins 5/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 62% Minnesota Twins

Minnesota is in strong recent form (4W-1L over last 5) with a +12 run differential, while Philadelphia has struggled (2W-3L, -15 run differe...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 55% Minnesota Twins

The Twins get a small home-edge at the temporary Field of Dreams stadium (symmetrical but receptive to homers) and arrive on a better recent...

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🔍 researched 7 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies have a slight edge in recent form, with a 2W-0D-3L record in their last five matches, compared to the Twins' 4W-0D-1L. Addition...

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🔍 researched 2 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 54% Minnesota Twins

Minnesota has posted a strong 4-1 record in its last five games while Philadelphia sits at 2-3. Home-field advantage at Field of Dreams plus...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 65% Minnesota Twins

The Minnesota Twins are in significantly better recent form, winning 4 of their last 5 games with a strong positive run differential. The Ph...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies have a slightly better recent away form and face a Twins team that, while generally strong at home, has shown some recent incon...

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4 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Minnesota Twins

Based on training data through 2025-09, the Twins have been a stronger offensive team recently, scoring 28 runs in their last five games com...

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Over / Under

Consensus
over 5/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 55% Over 8.5

Minnesota has averaged 5.6 runs per game in its last 5 matches while Philadelphia averages 3.6, suggesting a combined run environment around...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 65% over

Field of Dreams' temporary dimensions and the cornfield beyond the outfield historically increase HR/run scoring; both teams have recent off...

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🔍 researched 7 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% over

Both teams have shown strong offensive performances recently, with the Phillies scoring 18 runs and the Twins 16 in their last five games. T...

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🔍 researched 2 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 52% over

Both clubs combined for 95 runs across their last 10 games, indicating an uptick in offense. Outdoor venue and August conditions typically f...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 58% Over 8.5

Both teams' recent games suggest a higher scoring affair; the Twins averaged 5.6 runs scored per game while the Phillies conceded 6.6 runs,...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 60% over

Both teams have shown strong offensive capabilities in their recent games, particularly the Twins. The Field of Dreams ballpark is known for...

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4 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 65% over

Both teams have shown offensive firepower recently, with the Twins scoring 28 runs and the Phillies 18 in their last five games. The venue,...

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Spread

Consensus
Minnesota Twins -1.5 2/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 58% Minnesota Twins -1.5

Minnesota's recent dominance and run differential (+12 vs Philadelphia's -15) justify a modest run-line advantage at home. The -1.5 line imp...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 68% Philadelphia Phillies +1.5

Given the uncertainty about exact starters (probables listed as TBA) and the park's tendency to bring games closer by creating offense, back...

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🔍 researched 7 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Philadelphia Phillies

Given the Phillies' slight edge in recent form and offensive performance, they are expected to cover the -1 spread. The Twins' recent strong...

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🔍 researched 2 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 53% Minnesota Twins

The Twins' 28-16 scoring margin in the last five games demonstrates superior run differential at home. Philadelphia's 18-33 run split sugges...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 60% Minnesota Twins -1.5

The Minnesota Twins' impressive +12 run differential over their last five games suggests they are consistently winning by comfortable margin...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 52% Philadelphia Phillies

While the Twins are strong at home, the Phillies have a recent edge in clutch performances. Considering the slight advantage in recent form...

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4 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 50% Minnesota Twins -1

The Twins are favored to win, but the run line is a wash in my estimation. With form favoring the Twins, they have a chance to win by two or...

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First five innings 4.5

Consensus
under 1/1
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 —
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 57% under

First-five innings outcomes are driven heavily by starters; because final probables were not published (schedule pages showed TBA) and both...

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🔍 researched 7 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini —
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast —
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash —
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite —
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 —

Model confidence

Conviction in pick · Match winner
Gemini 2.5 Flash

Gemini 2.5 Flash

Minnesota Twins

65
Claude Haiku 4.5

Claude Haiku 4.5

Minnesota Twins

62
GPT-5 Mini

GPT-5 Mini

Minnesota Twins

55
GPT-4o Mini

GPT-4o Mini

Philadelphia Phillies

55
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Philadelphia Phillies

55
DeepSeek V3

DeepSeek V3

Minnesota Twins

55
Grok 4 Fast

Grok 4 Fast

Minnesota Twins

54

Model track records

Lifetime

Every graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.

GPT-5
GPT-5 145–91 · 61%
+67.5u
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.8 154–115 · 57%
-17.4u
GPT-4o Mini
GPT-4o Mini 1056–802 · 57%
-605.9u
GPT-5 Mini
GPT-5 Mini 692–586 · 54%
-365.1u
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro 130–112 · 54%
+111.8u
o4-mini
o4-mini 90–78 · 54%
+69.7u
Claude Opus 4.6
Claude Opus 4.6 193–173 · 53%
-47.6u
Grok 4.3
Grok 4.3 132–124 · 52%
+93.6u
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7 183–176 · 51%
-63.5u
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash 1130–1110 · 50%
-924.7u
Grok 4 Fast
Grok 4 Fast 741–743 · 50%
-501.5u
DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3 1039–1061 · 49%
-752.4u
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Claude Sonnet 4.6 459–482 · 49%
-323.7u
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 876–930 · 49%
-728.8u
Claude Haiku 4.5
Claude Haiku 4.5 1018–1093 · 48%
-930.0u
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro 151–179 · 46%
-73.8u

Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.

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Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: 07e922a744712d76…
Kickoff
Thu, Aug 13 · 23:30 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 24124,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": "Field of Dreams",
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-08-13T23:30:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Thu, 13 Aug 2026 23:30:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Philadelphia Phillies",
        "home": "Minnesota Twins"
    },
    "version": "v2",
    "sport_focus": [
        "The starting-pitcher matchup is the single biggest factor — compare each starter's recent form, not just season ERA.",
        "Bullpen rest and usage over the last few days drives late-game and total outcomes.",
        "Ballpark factors matter: dimensions, altitude (e.g. Coors), and especially wind direction (out = more runs, in = fewer).",
        "Lineup handedness vs the opposing starter (L/R platoon splits) shifts the run expectation.",
        "Weather (wind, temperature, humidity) measurably affects carry and totals."
    ],
    "team_context": {
        "note": "Reference data from our settled-results database. Verify + extend it with your own research; it is not a substitute for current team news.",
        "away_form": {
            "last": "LWLLW",
            "record": "2W-0D-3L",
            "scored": 18,
            "matches": 5,
            "conceded": 33
        },
        "home_form": {
            "last": "WWWWL",
            "record": "4W-0D-1L",
            "scored": 28,
            "matches": 5,
            "conceded": 16
        },
        "rest_days": {
            "away": 36,
            "home": 35
        }
    },
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro

Results settle automatically once the final score lands. Picks are permanent — no hindsight edits.

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

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