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MLB
Upcoming · in 80h 46m
Minnesota Twins logo

Minnesota Twins vs Colorado Rockies

Colorado Rockies logo

Kickoff · Sun, Jun 28 · 18:10 GMT+0000

Picks locked at Jun 25 · 05:48 GMT+0000 24 picks recorded
Chat with the AIs about this match Pick the frontier models — Claude, GPT-5, Gemini, Grok & more — and watch them answer side by side, live, on the same brief.

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: 3b747169356577ed…
Kickoff
Sun, Jun 28 · 18:10 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 7571,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-06-28T18:10:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Sun, 28 Jun 2026 18:10:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Colorado Rockies",
        "home": "Minnesota Twins"
    },
    "version": "v1",
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Your call

Who wins? One tap, no signup.

AI predictions

4 markets · 6 models picked

Who picked what

16 models × 4 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Match winner

Consensus
Minnesota Twins 5/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 58% Minnesota Twins

The Twins have historically been the stronger franchise and typically field more balanced lineups than Colorado. The Rockies play in a high-...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% Colorado Rockies

The Colorado Rockies have a better recent record, winning 4 of their last 10 games, compared to the Minnesota Twins' 4 wins in their last 10...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 62% Minnesota Twins

Minnesota Twins have historically been the stronger franchise with better overall roster construction than the Rockies. Training data throug...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 65% Minnesota Twins

Based on general team performance trends from training data through 2025-09, the Minnesota Twins typically outperform the Colorado Rockies,...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 60% Minnesota Twins

The Minnesota Twins are generally a stronger team than the Colorado Rockies, especially when playing at home. While specific lineups and rec...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 65% Minnesota Twins

Based on training data through 2025, the Twins have been a stronger team overall, especially at home, while the Rockies struggle on the road...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Over / Under

Consensus
Over 8.5 3/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 56% Over 8.5

Late June baseball typically sees warm weather and full offensive lineups in play. Both the Twins and Rockies have above-average offensive p...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% over

Both teams have shown inconsistent performances recently, with the Rockies allowing 5.7 runs per game and the Twins allowing 5 runs per game...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 53% over

Colorado pitching has historically been weak on the road, inflating run totals. Training data through 2025-09 indicates average MLB scoring...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 53% Over 8.5

Given the Rockies' historical pitching struggles, particularly on the road, and the Twins' generally capable offense from training data thro...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% over

Without specific pitching matchups or park factors, it's difficult to make a precise prediction on total runs. However, MLB games on average...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Over 8.5

Both teams have inconsistent pitching staffs and can put up runs. Colorado's coors-inflated hitting doesn't carry on the road, but Minnesota...

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Spread

Consensus
Minnesota Twins 2/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 52% Minnesota Twins

The Twins' home-field advantage and roster superiority give them a slight edge in a spread scenario, though the margin is narrow. Colorado's...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% Colorado Rockies

Given the Rockies' recent form and higher batting average, they are likely to cover the -1 spread, especially if they continue their recent...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 58% Minnesota Twins

Twins hold home-field and roster advantages that typically cover the run line against weaker NL West clubs. Training data through 2025-09 sh...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 58% Minnesota Twins -1.5

Assuming the Twins are the stronger team at home, as indicated by historical performance in my training data through 2025-09, they are likel...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 52% Colorado Rockies

Given the assumption that the Twins are favored, a spread bet on the Rockies to cover (meaning they can lose by a small margin or win) offer...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Minnesota Twins -1.5

The Twins are strong enough to win by multiple runs, given the Rockies' road struggles. A two-run spread is achievable if the Twins' bats pr...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

First 5 innings

Consensus
Minnesota Twins 5/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 54% Minnesota Twins

Early-inning advantage typically favors the home team with better starting pitching and lineup depth. The Twins' roster composition suggests...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Colorado Rockies

The Rockies' recent form and offensive performance suggest they may have the upper hand in the first five innings, potentially leading to an...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 55% Minnesota Twins

Early-game starters usually favor the home club with Minnesota's historical rotation depth. Training data through 2025-09 shows Twins leadin...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 60% Minnesota Twins

The Minnesota Twins typically have a stronger starting rotation and offense compared to the Colorado Rockies, especially in a home game, bas...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 58% Minnesota Twins

The home team often has an advantage in the early innings due to familiarity with the stadium and crowd energy. Assuming the Twins' general...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 60% Minnesota Twins

Twins typically start well at home, and their starting pitching depth outmatches Colorado's. Early runs from the Twins' lineup and a solid f...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

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Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro
  • Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini
    4 tool calls · 3 sources

    3 citations captured — unlock with Pro

  • Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

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