MLB

Upcoming · in 88h 18m

Minnesota Twins vs Colorado Rockies

Kickoff · Sat, Jun 27 · 00:10 GMT+0000

Picks locked at Jun 23 · 05:51 GMT+0000 24 picks recorded

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified


                    hash:
                    e9b1363b6c742004…

Kickoff: Sat, Jun 27 · 00:10 GMT+0000
Markets: Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds: 15+ live books
Research: AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 6999,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-06-27T00:10:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Sat, 27 Jun 2026 00:10:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Colorado Rockies",
        "home": "Minnesota Twins"
    },
    "version": "v1",
    "built_at": "2026-06-23T05:51:26+00:00",
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Your call

Who wins? One tap, no signup.

AI predictions

6 markets · 6 models picked

Who picked what

16 models × 6 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Unlock flagship models

Model	Match winner ?	Over / Under ?	Spread ?	First 5 innings ?	First five innings h2h ?	First five innings over 4.5 ?
Claude Opus 4.7 Flagship Anthropic · 54-78 -37.9u	Flagship picks across 6 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Flagship Anthropic · 54-70 -27.3u	Flagship picks across 6 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Flagship Anthropic · 22-21 -10.6u	Flagship picks across 6 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Flagship Anthropic · 284-327 -241.1u	Flagship picks across 6 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Anthropic · 386-471 -387.7u	58% Minnesota Twins	54% Over 8.5	55% Minnesota Twins -1	56% Minnesota Twins	—	—
Match winner ? 58% Minnesota Twins The Twins have historically been the stronger franchise and typically have better regular-season records than Colorado. Without access to li... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 54% Over 8.5 MLB games in late June typically see moderate offensive production. The Twins have offensive firepower, and Coors Field effects (even as the... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 55% Minnesota Twins -1 The Twins hold a structural quality advantage and play at home. A -1 run spread is modest and reflects the uncertainty inherent in a single... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 56% Minnesota Twins First-five innings markets isolate early-game pitching performance and lineup strength. The Twins typically deploy strong starting rotations... Unlock reasoning · Pro First five innings h2h ? No pick on this market. First five innings over 4.5 ? No pick on this market.
GPT-5 Flagship Openai · 17-13 -6.2u	Flagship picks across 6 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
GPT-5 Mini Openai · 178-156 -36.5u	—	—	—	—	—	—
Match winner ? No pick on this market. Over / Under ? No pick on this market. Spread ? No pick on this market. First 5 innings ? No pick on this market. First five innings h2h ? No pick on this market. First five innings over 4.5 ? No pick on this market.
GPT-4o Mini Openai · 307-306 -211.2u	65% Minnesota Twins	60% under	55% Minnesota Twins	60% Minnesota Twins	—	—
Match winner ? 65% Minnesota Twins The Minnesota Twins have a strong home record and have been performing well recently, while the Colorado Rockies have struggled on the road.... Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched 3 sources cited Over / Under ? 60% under Both teams have been averaging fewer than 9.5 runs per game in their recent matchups. Additionally, the weather forecast predicts cooler tem... Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched 3 sources cited Spread ? 55% Minnesota Twins The Twins' strong home performance and the Rockies' road struggles suggest a potential for the Twins to win by at least two runs. However, t... Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched 3 sources cited First 5 innings ? 60% Minnesota Twins The Twins have been strong in the early innings at home, while the Rockies have had slow starts on the road. This trend suggests the Twins a... Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched 3 sources cited First five innings h2h ? No pick on this market. First five innings over 4.5 ? No pick on this market.
o4-mini Flagship Openai · 9-7 -3.5u	Flagship picks across 6 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Grok 4.3 Flagship Xai · 30-25 -6.4u	Flagship picks across 6 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Grok 4 Fast Xai · 371-383 -220.4u	68% Minnesota Twins	55% over	62% Minnesota Twins -1.5	64% Minnesota Twins	—	—
Match winner ? 68% Minnesota Twins Minnesota Twins have historically been a stronger franchise with better pitching depth than the rebuilding Colorado Rockies. Twins hold a cl... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 55% over Rockies offenses tend to produce higher run environments on the road while Twins starters allow moderate scoring. Average MLB totals hover n... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 62% Minnesota Twins -1.5 Twins are expected to win by multiple runs given talent gap; Rockies struggle to cover run lines on the road. Historical data shows favorite... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 64% Minnesota Twins Early game edge goes to Twins with stronger starting rotation depth and home field. Rockies early offense is typically weak on the road. Tra... Unlock reasoning · Pro First five innings h2h ? No pick on this market. First five innings over 4.5 ? No pick on this market.
Gemini 3.1 Pro Flagship Google · 23-30 -4.7u	Flagship picks across 6 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Flagship Google · 50-87 -52.8u	Flagship picks across 6 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Google · 351-402 -327.3u	68% Minnesota Twins	55% over	55% Minnesota Twins	—	68% Minnesota Twins	—
Match winner ? 68% Minnesota Twins Based on training data through 2025-09, the Minnesota Twins typically hold a significant home-field advantage and are generally a stronger t... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 55% over Drawing from historical team tendencies in my training data, the Colorado Rockies often have vulnerable pitching, which can lead to higher-s... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 55% Minnesota Twins Utilizing general team profiles from my training data, the Minnesota Twins are expected to outperform the Colorado Rockies at home. If the T... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? No pick on this market. First five innings h2h ? 68% Minnesota Twins Based on my training data through 2025-09, the Minnesota Twins typically start games strong, especially when playing at home. Against a gene... Unlock reasoning · Pro First five innings over 4.5 ? No pick on this market.
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Google · 320-439 -319.6u	55% Minnesota Twins	53% over	54% Colorado Rockies	—	—	55% over
Match winner ? 55% Minnesota Twins The Minnesota Twins are generally a more consistent team in recent MLB history. While Coors Field can inflate offensive numbers for the Rock... Unlock reasoning · Pro 3 sources cited Over / Under ? 53% over Given that the Rockies play at Coors Field, known for its high-scoring environment, and the general offensive capabilities of both teams, th... Unlock reasoning · Pro 3 sources cited Spread ? 54% Colorado Rockies While the Twins are favored to win outright, the spread of -1.5 runs suggests a need for a multi-run victory. The Rockies' home park advanta... Unlock reasoning · Pro 3 sources cited First 5 innings ? No pick on this market. First five innings h2h ? No pick on this market. First five innings over 4.5 ? 55% over Both teams have demonstrated the ability to score early. The offensive-friendly environment of Coors Field, combined with the expectation of... Unlock reasoning · Pro 3 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 Deepseek · 406-454 -254.9u	60% Minnesota Twins	55% Over 8.5	50% Minnesota Twins -1.5	55% Minnesota Twins	—	—
Match winner ? 60% Minnesota Twins The Twins are at home and historically stronger than the Rockies at Target Field. Colorado struggles on the road, especially in interleague... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 55% Over 8.5 Both teams have middling pitching staffs, and the Twins' lineup is capable of scoring runs. Colorado's offense can be inconsistent but often... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 50% Minnesota Twins -1.5 The Twins are favored but the -1.5 spread is close to a coin flip. Minnesota's home advantage and better form give them a slight edge to cov... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 55% Minnesota Twins The first five innings often favor the home team with better starting pitching. The Twins likely have a slight advantage in the early inning... Unlock reasoning · Pro First five innings h2h ? No pick on this market. First five innings over 4.5 ? No pick on this market.
Consensus	Minnesota Twins 6/6	over 3/6	Minnesota Twins 2/6	Minnesota Twins 4/4	Minnesota Twins 1/1	over 1/1

Match winner

Consensus
Minnesota Twins 6/6

Claude Opus 4.7 Pro

Claude Opus 4.6 Pro

Claude Opus 4.8 Pro

Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro

Claude Haiku 4.5 58% Minnesota Twins

The Twins have historically been the stronger franchise and typically have better regular-season records than Colorado. Without access to li...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

GPT-5 Pro

GPT-5 Mini —

GPT-4o Mini 65% Minnesota Twins

The Minnesota Twins have a strong home record and have been performing well recently, while the Colorado Rockies have struggled on the road....

Unlock reasoning · Pro

🔍 researched 3 sources cited

o4-mini Pro

Grok 4.3 Pro

Grok 4 Fast 68% Minnesota Twins

Minnesota Twins have historically been a stronger franchise with better pitching depth than the rebuilding Colorado Rockies. Twins hold a cl...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro

Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro

Gemini 2.5 Flash 68% Minnesota Twins

Based on training data through 2025-09, the Minnesota Twins typically hold a significant home-field advantage and are generally a stronger t...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% Minnesota Twins

The Minnesota Twins are generally a more consistent team in recent MLB history. While Coors Field can inflate offensive numbers for the Rock...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

3 sources cited

DeepSeek V3 60% Minnesota Twins

The Twins are at home and historically stronger than the Rockies at Target Field. Colorado struggles on the road, especially in interleague...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Over / Under

Consensus
over 3/6

Claude Opus 4.7 Pro

Claude Opus 4.6 Pro

Claude Opus 4.8 Pro

Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro

Claude Haiku 4.5 54% Over 8.5

MLB games in late June typically see moderate offensive production. The Twins have offensive firepower, and Coors Field effects (even as the...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

GPT-5 Pro

GPT-5 Mini —

GPT-4o Mini 60% under

Both teams have been averaging fewer than 9.5 runs per game in their recent matchups. Additionally, the weather forecast predicts cooler tem...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

🔍 researched 3 sources cited

o4-mini Pro

Grok 4.3 Pro

Grok 4 Fast 55% over

Rockies offenses tend to produce higher run environments on the road while Twins starters allow moderate scoring. Average MLB totals hover n...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro

Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro

Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% over

Drawing from historical team tendencies in my training data, the Colorado Rockies often have vulnerable pitching, which can lead to higher-s...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 53% over

Given that the Rockies play at Coors Field, known for its high-scoring environment, and the general offensive capabilities of both teams, th...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

3 sources cited

DeepSeek V3 55% Over 8.5

Both teams have middling pitching staffs, and the Twins' lineup is capable of scoring runs. Colorado's offense can be inconsistent but often...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Spread

Consensus
Minnesota Twins 2/6

Claude Opus 4.7 Pro

Claude Opus 4.6 Pro

Claude Opus 4.8 Pro

Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro

Claude Haiku 4.5 55% Minnesota Twins -1

The Twins hold a structural quality advantage and play at home. A -1 run spread is modest and reflects the uncertainty inherent in a single...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

GPT-5 Pro

GPT-5 Mini —

GPT-4o Mini 55% Minnesota Twins

The Twins' strong home performance and the Rockies' road struggles suggest a potential for the Twins to win by at least two runs. However, t...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

🔍 researched 3 sources cited

o4-mini Pro

Grok 4.3 Pro

Grok 4 Fast 62% Minnesota Twins -1.5

Twins are expected to win by multiple runs given talent gap; Rockies struggle to cover run lines on the road. Historical data shows favorite...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro

Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro

Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% Minnesota Twins

Utilizing general team profiles from my training data, the Minnesota Twins are expected to outperform the Colorado Rockies at home. If the T...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 54% Colorado Rockies

While the Twins are favored to win outright, the spread of -1.5 runs suggests a need for a multi-run victory. The Rockies' home park advanta...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

3 sources cited

DeepSeek V3 50% Minnesota Twins -1.5

The Twins are favored but the -1.5 spread is close to a coin flip. Minnesota's home advantage and better form give them a slight edge to cov...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

First 5 innings

Consensus
Minnesota Twins 4/4

Claude Opus 4.7 Pro

Claude Opus 4.6 Pro

Claude Opus 4.8 Pro

Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro

Claude Haiku 4.5 56% Minnesota Twins

First-five innings markets isolate early-game pitching performance and lineup strength. The Twins typically deploy strong starting rotations...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

GPT-5 Pro

GPT-5 Mini —

GPT-4o Mini 60% Minnesota Twins

The Twins have been strong in the early innings at home, while the Rockies have had slow starts on the road. This trend suggests the Twins a...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

🔍 researched 3 sources cited

o4-mini Pro

Grok 4.3 Pro

Grok 4 Fast 64% Minnesota Twins

Early game edge goes to Twins with stronger starting rotation depth and home field. Rockies early offense is typically weak on the road. Tra...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro

Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro

Gemini 2.5 Flash —

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite —

DeepSeek V3 55% Minnesota Twins

The first five innings often favor the home team with better starting pitching. The Twins likely have a slight advantage in the early inning...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

First five innings h2h

Consensus
Minnesota Twins 1/1

Claude Opus 4.7 Pro

Claude Opus 4.6 Pro

Claude Opus 4.8 Pro

Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro

Claude Haiku 4.5 —

GPT-5 Pro

GPT-5 Mini —

GPT-4o Mini —

o4-mini Pro

Grok 4.3 Pro

Grok 4 Fast —

Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro

Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro

Gemini 2.5 Flash 68% Minnesota Twins

Based on my training data through 2025-09, the Minnesota Twins typically start games strong, especially when playing at home. Against a gene...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite —

DeepSeek V3 —

First five innings over 4.5

Consensus
over 1/1

Claude Opus 4.7 Pro

Claude Opus 4.6 Pro

Claude Opus 4.8 Pro

Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro

Claude Haiku 4.5 —

GPT-5 Pro

GPT-5 Mini —

GPT-4o Mini —

o4-mini Pro

Grok 4.3 Pro

Grok 4 Fast —

Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro

Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro

Gemini 2.5 Flash —

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% over

Both teams have demonstrated the ability to score early. The offensive-friendly environment of Coors Field, combined with the expectation of...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

3 sources cited

DeepSeek V3 —

Pro on-demand

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Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro

Claude Haiku 4.5
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
Grok 4 Fast
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
Gemini 2.5 Flash
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
0 tool calls · 3 sources

3 citations captured — unlock with Pro
DeepSeek V3
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
GPT-4o Mini
4 tool calls · 3 sources

3 citations captured — unlock with Pro

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