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MLB
Final 2–4
Milwaukee Brewers logo

Milwaukee BrewersvsCleveland Guardians

Cleveland Guardians logo
Chat with the AIs Ask why they picked — live
Final2–4 Locked 32picks · 17 graded
Recap Consensus missed

Milwaukee Brewers 2–4 Cleveland Guardians

All 8 AIs backed Milwaukee Brewers — reality had other ideas.

AI lean
Milwaukee Brewers 8/8
Correct calls
0/8
Final
2–4

Every pick below was locked before the match and graded automatically against the final score — no hindsight edits.

AI predictions

Ask the AIs

Who picked what

16 models × 4 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Spread

Consensus
Milwaukee Brewers 2/8
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 52% Milwaukee Brewers -1 L

Slight edge to Milwaukee at home with run-line value. The Brewers' home-field advantage and historical consistency make a one-run cushion mo...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 57% home_cover

Given Milwaukee's home pitching and bullpen strength and the market placing the Brewers as favorites, the Crew are likelier to win by multip...

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🔍 researched 5 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Milwaukee Brewers L

Given the Brewers' home advantage and the Guardians' struggles on the road, the Brewers are likely to cover the -1 spread in this matchup.

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🔍 researched 6 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 53% Milwaukee Brewers

Based on training data through 2025-09, Brewers cover run line at home more often against AL Central opponents. Cleveland bullpen fatigue pa...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 60% Cleveland Guardians +1.5 W

While the Brewers are favored in the H2H, winning by two or more runs (covering -1.5) is a tougher proposition without specific game-day fac...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 53% Cleveland Guardians

Given the lack of current information, I am predicting that the Cleveland Guardians will cover a neutral spread. This is a default predictio...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 60% Cleveland Guardians +1.5 W

The Guardians are a strong team that rarely loses by more than one run. Even if they lose, the spread provides a cushion, making the +1.5 a...

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Match winner

Consensus
Milwaukee Brewers 8/8
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 58% Milwaukee Brewers L

Milwaukee is favored at home in mid-June 2026. The Brewers have established themselves as a consistent NL Central contender with strong home...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 60% Milwaukee Brewers L

Milwaukee is the clear market favorite at home and has the stronger record and bullpen depth; the consensus preview and local coverage list...

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🔍 researched 5 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Milwaukee Brewers L

The Brewers have a strong home record and have been performing well recently. The Guardians have struggled on the road, which gives the Brew...

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🔍 researched 6 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 54% Milwaukee Brewers L

Based on training data through 2025-09, Milwaukee Brewers hold a slight edge in overall roster depth and home performance metrics versus Cle...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 53% Milwaukee Brewers L

Based on general team strengths from training data through late 2024, the Brewers often perform well at home. Without specific 2026 lineups,...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% Milwaukee Brewers L

Based on general historical performance trends from my training data, the Milwaukee Brewers tend to perform slightly better at home against...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Milwaukee Brewers L

Based on training data through mid-2025, the Brewers have a slight edge at home against the Guardians. Both teams are competitive, but Milwa...

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Over / Under

Consensus
Over 8.5 3/8
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 54% Over 8.5 L

Both Milwaukee and Cleveland field competitive offenses with mixed recent run-scoring patterns. Mid-June weather at Miller Park (Milwaukee)...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 62% under_8.5 W

Bookmakers opened the game at an 8.5 total and both teams are pitching-first this season: BrewCrewBall and Fox Sports highlight strong team...

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🔍 researched 5 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% under W

Both teams have strong pitching rotations, and recent games have tended to be low-scoring. This suggests a total runs count below 9.5 is mor...

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🔍 researched 6 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 52% over

Based on training data through 2025-09, both teams trend toward moderate offensive outputs in June matchups. Pitching staffs have allowed sl...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 51% Over 8.5 L

Given the lack of specific starting pitcher information for 2026, and considering both teams historically have capable offenses, a total of...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 52% over

My training data suggests that games involving these teams, without specific recent context, typically hover around an average number of run...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 52% Over 8.5

Both lineups have decent offensive potential, and Miller Park (now American Family Field) is slightly hitter-friendly. No dominant aces expe...

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First 5 innings

Consensus
Milwaukee Brewers 5/8
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 56% Milwaukee Brewers

Early-inning advantage tilts slightly toward Milwaukee at home. Brewers batters typically adjust faster to opposing starter tendencies in th...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 45% home_lead_after_5

First-five outcomes are closer to coin-flips; Shane Drohan and Parker Messick both settle in early but Messick has the better season ERA. Ho...

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🔍 researched 5 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Milwaukee Brewers

The Brewers have been strong in the early innings at home, often taking an early lead. The Guardians have struggled to score early in away g...

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🔍 researched 6 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 51% Milwaukee Brewers

Based on training data through 2025-09, early game edges often mirror full game trends for these clubs with Brewers starters performing adeq...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 47% Milwaukee Brewers

The first five innings heavily depend on the starting pitchers, which are unknown for this 2026 fixture. Giving a very slight edge to the ho...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 53% Cleveland Guardians

Similar to the full game spread, I am projecting the Cleveland Guardians to perform slightly better in the first five innings. This predicti...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 51% Milwaukee Brewers

The first five innings are often decided by the starting pitchers and early lineup. Without specific pitcher data, the slight home edge for...

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Model confidence

Conviction in pick · Match winner
GPT-5 Mini

GPT-5 Mini

Milwaukee Brewers

60
Claude Haiku 4.5

Claude Haiku 4.5

Milwaukee Brewers

58
GPT-4o Mini

GPT-4o Mini

Milwaukee Brewers

55
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Milwaukee Brewers

55
DeepSeek V3

DeepSeek V3

Milwaukee Brewers

55
Grok 4 Fast

Grok 4 Fast

Milwaukee Brewers

54
Gemini 2.5 Flash

Gemini 2.5 Flash

Milwaukee Brewers

53
Claude Sonnet 4.6

Claude Sonnet 4.6

Milwaukee Brewers

52

Model track records

Lifetime

Every graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.

GPT-5
GPT-5 145–91 · 61%
+67.5u
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.8 154–115 · 57%
-17.4u
GPT-4o Mini
GPT-4o Mini 1056–799 · 57%
-602.9u
GPT-5 Mini
GPT-5 Mini 690–586 · 54%
-365.1u
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro 130–112 · 54%
+111.8u
o4-mini
o4-mini 90–78 · 54%
+69.7u
Claude Opus 4.6
Claude Opus 4.6 193–173 · 53%
-47.6u
Grok 4.3
Grok 4.3 132–124 · 52%
+93.6u
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7 183–176 · 51%
-63.5u
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash 1128–1109 · 50%
-923.7u
Grok 4 Fast
Grok 4 Fast 740–743 · 50%
-501.5u
DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3 1031–1055 · 49%
-746.4u
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Claude Sonnet 4.6 459–482 · 49%
-323.7u
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 876–927 · 49%
-725.8u
Claude Haiku 4.5
Claude Haiku 4.5 1017–1091 · 48%
-928.0u
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro 151–179 · 46%
-73.8u

Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: 4915bdcf993a5133…
Kickoff
Thu, Jun 18 · 18:10 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 3502,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-06-18T18:10:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Thu, 18 Jun 2026 18:10:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Cleveland Guardians",
        "home": "Milwaukee Brewers"
    },
    "version": "v1",
    "built_at": "2026-06-16T05:45:09+00:00",
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

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